Here’s our fantasy premier league captain pick GW16 article. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FFGeek captain poll, the contributors picks and a load of stats to seek out the best captain choice. There’s also the results of the transfer polls.
fantasy premier league captain pick GW16 – plus transfer poll results
The fixtures
Bookies team to win odds
Man City v Man Utd – £1.32 Sterling, De Bruyne, Jesus
Spurs v Burnley – £1.38 Kane, Alli, Son
Bournemouth v Liverpool – £1.42 Salah, Mane, Firmino
The bookies player odds
The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.
£1.67 – Aubameyang
£1.70 – Vardy
£1.73 – Kane
£1.85 – Abraham, Salah
£1.91 – Mane, Jesus, Lacazette
£1.95 – Alli, Sterling, Pukki
£2.05 – Mousset
£2.20 – Ings
£2.30 – Firmino, Bernardo
£2.37 – Son
The Captain Poll results
The captain poll asks who will be your captain?
Other FPL polls
Here’s a selection of results from other polls
Poll 1 is the highest traffic site and asks who is the best captain
There are 2 twitter polls which ask who your captain will be
The last 1 is a low volume site poll where there is no question
n/a means that player isn’t in the poll
The FFGeek contributor captain picks
Vardy vs Mane
I’ve looked at these 2 as the highest in the FFGeek poll. Stats are from the essential brilliant free sites whoscored and understat
Gametime
As I said before, with no European football it’s pretty impossible to see Vardy rested. Rodgers has also talked about how he has managed Vardy’s game by getting him to do less pressing and staying within the width of the 18 yard box to become a more pure goalscorer.
I think as we go into the following month Mane could always be a rotation risk. It’s worth saying that Klopp in the Premier League isn’t a great rotater of the front 3 although the Everton match showed that he can do this. Liverpool can’t afford to lose midweek in the Champions League vs Salzburg so rotation of Mane isn’t out of the question
Stat comparison
Hopefully the abbreviations are self explanatory. The first set of fixtures are non top 6 away to non traditional top 6 sides. The overall are the entire season.
I excluded Mane’s 16 minutes of nothing in GW1 in the overall fixtures.
Defences
Liverpool’s opponents Bournemouth at home are:
12th ranked in goals conceded at home with 9 in 7 home games
12th ranked in xGA home with 9.85
15th in shots per game at home against with 14.3
17th in possession at home which suggests a defensive approach
In home games against traditional top 6 teams they lost 1-3 to Man City (xGA 3.13) and beat 1-0 Man Utd (xGA 0.64)
Leicesters opponents Aston Villa at home are:
6th ranked in goals conceded at home with 7 goals conceded in 7 home games
11th ranked in xGA at home with 9.5 xGA
17th in shots per game at home against with 14.7
13th in possession at home which leans towards them not being too a defensive team
I’m counting Leicester as being equal to a traditional top 6 side. Villa have only played Liverpool as a top 6 side at home. They lost 2-1 with an xGA against of 2.39. Liverpool also had 25 shots.
Summary
Gametime Vardy seems certain to start. Harder to predict for Mane with fixture congestion but he’s not a highly rotated player. Liverpool have Salzburg midweek which they can’t lose though.
The bookies have Vardy at £1.70 and Mane at 1.91. Aubameyang is best odds though at £1.67
The FFGeek poll clearly favours Vardy at 49% vs 17% for Mane. Other FPL polls are alot closer
Of the 19 FFGeek contributors 10 have gone for Vardy. 3 have gone for Mane.
For the away games against non top 6 sides Vardy is clearly ahead. However overall it’s much closer and Mane is probably a more rounded threat with greater assist potential. For a top striker Vardys shot volume is low which probably explains when he gets the chance he ain’t passing.
There’s not much in the defensive stats comparison.
Vardy has the advantage of penalties which Mane doesn’t.
The FFGeek view
The polls are a little conflicting with the FFGeek poll different than others but I’m following it and going with Vardy
The Transfer Polls
Good luck whoever you choose
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Other posts
FFGeek contributors GW16 teams Part 1
FFGeek contributors GW16 teams part 2
FFgeek contributors teams part 3
FFGeek contributors teams part 4
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