Here’s our fantasy premier league captain pick GW17 article. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FFGeek captain poll, the contributors picks and a load of stats to seek out the best captain choice. There’s also the results of the transfer polls.
fantasy premier league captain pick GW17 – plus transfer poll results
The fixtures
Bookies team to win odds
Liverpool v Watford – £1.17 Salah, Mane, Firmino
Leicester v Norwich £1.20 Vardy
Chelsea v Bournemouth £1.24 – Abraham, Pulisic
Arsenal v Man City £1.44 – Sterling, De Bruyne, Jesus
The bookies player odds
The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.
£1.40 – Vardy
£1.50 – Abraham
£1.61 – Salah
£1.65 – Aguero
£1.73 – Ings
£1.75 – Mane
£1.83 – Rashford, Jesus
£1.90 – Mousset
£1.95 – Sterling
£2.05 – Pulisic, Iheanacho, Martial
£2.15 – Kane
£2.20 – Wood, Barnes Aubameyang
£2.37 – Mount
£2.40 – Mahrez, Bernardo Silva
The Captain Poll results
The FFGeek captain poll asks who will be your captain?
Other FPL polls
Here’s a selection of results from other polls
Poll 1 is the highest traffic site and asks who is the best captain
There are 2 twitter polls which ask who your captain will be
The last 1 is a low volume site poll where there is no question
n/a means that player isn’t in the poll
The FFGeek contributor captain picks
Vardy vs Mane
I’ve looked at these 2 as the highest in the FFGeek poll. Stats are from the essential brilliant free sites whoscored and understat
Gametime
As I said before, with no European football it’s pretty impossible to see Vardy rested. Rodgers has also talked about how he has managed Vardy’s game by getting him to do less pressing and staying within the width of the 18 yard box to become a more pure goalscorer.
I think as we go into the following month Mane could always be a rotation risk. Klopp is also showing that he will rotate the front 3. Mane was rested last weeekend but did play 90 on Tuesday v Salzburg. However given he was rested last week I suspect he will play this week.
Stat comparison
Hopefully the abbreviations are self explanatory. Selected matches
Defences faced
Leicester’s opponents Norwich away are:
12th ranked in goals conceded with 14 in 8 games
15th ranked in xGA with 14.78
14th in shots per game against with 15.6
9th in possession which doesn’t suggest a defensive approach
They have only played 1 traditional top 6 team away and that’s Liverpool where they lost 1-4 (2.23 xGA)
Liverpools opponents Watford away are:
18th ranked in goals conceded with 17 goals conceded in 8 games
16th ranked in xGA with 15.44 xGA
10th in shots per game against with 13.9
10th in possession which leans towards them not being too a defensive team
I’m counting Leicester as being equal to a traditional top 6 side. Watford have played 3 sides away Man City 0-8 (6.63 xGA), Spurs 1-1 (xGA 0.89) and Leicester 0-2 (2.29 xGA)
Summary
Gametime Vardy seems certain to start. Harder to predict for Mane as Klopp has shown he is willing to rotate. Mane was rested last weekend which is a positive.
The bookies for anytime golascorer have Vardy at £1.40 and Mane at 1.75.
The FFGeek poll clearly favours Vardy at 74% vs 11% for Mane. Other FPL polls are similar but not as pronounced
Of the 13 FFGeek contributors so far 11 have gone for Vardy. 1 each have gone for Mane and Salah.
The stats aren’t ridiculously different. Vardy has much more goal threat in xG terms if not in shooting volume. However Mane has a far greater assist threat.
There’s not much also in the defensive stats comparison.
Vardy has the advantage of penalties which Mane doesn’t.
The FFGeek view
There’s no way I’m going anyother way than Vardy with this poll.
The Transfer Polls
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Other posts
Early thoughts on the FFGeek team
FFGeek contributors show their GW17 teams part 1
FFGeek contributors show their teams part 2
FFGeek contributors show their GW17 teams part 3
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