Here’s our fantasy premier league captain pick GW30 article. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FFGeek captain poll, the contributors picks and stats to seek out the best captain choice. There’s also the results of the transfer polls.
fantasy premier league captain pick GW30 – plus transfer poll results
Fixtures
Note that Brighton v Arsenal has been postponed as Arteta has been tested positive for the Corona Virus
The bookies team to win odds
Here’s the bookies odds for teams to win for £1 bet
Man City v Burnley £1.14 – Aguero, De Bruyne, Sterling
Villa v Chelsea £1.57 – Giroud
Everton v Liverpool £1.75 – Salah, Mane, Firmino
The anytime goal scorer odds
These are the odds for anytime goalscorer for £1 bet. They assume the player starts and don’t take into account assist potential
£1.44 – Aguero
£1.85 – Pukki, Ings
£1.91 – Sterling
£2.05 – Salah, Mahrez, Giroud
£2.10 – Vardy
£2.20 – Jimenez
£2.25 – Calvert Lewin
£2.30 – Deeney, Martial, Mane
£2.37 – Bernardo Silva
De Bruyne btw is £2.50 and Fernandes is £2.70
The Captain Poll results
The FFGeek Poll
The FFGeek captain poll asks who will be your captain? Thanks for taking the time to vote
Obviously the Aubameyang vote is no longer relevant. I suspect the recent postponement of the midweek UCL match for De Bruyne v Real Madrid has increased his chances of starting, if fit, and that maybe is under reflected in the polls. There’s also the unknown of where the Aubameyang votes will now go to.
Other FPL polls
Here’s a selection of results from other polls:
Poll 1 is the highest traffic site and asks who is the best captain
There are 2 twitter polls which ask who your captain will be. Twitter 2 doesn’t exist this week
The last 1 is a low volume site poll where there is no question.
n/a means that player isn’t in the poll
Contributor Picks
I will fill this in later
Stats comparison
Salah v De Bruyne
Gametime
Assuming there is no Corona Virus reason for postponements I would expect Salah to play given it’s the Merseyside Derby. De Bruyne is trickier. Given that the Champions League match is postponed there’s no reason now to rest him for that. The question is one of fitness. It appears he’s been training which is a good sign. I guess it’s a case of hoping that Pep is more helpful than normal in his press conference.
Salah in selected away matches
Everton are 6th lowest in xG conceded at home so I’ve selected reasonably strong home opponents without going for the traditional top 6
De Bruyne in selected home matches
Again the Burnley defence away was surprisingly high in xG conceded away from home so I’ve looked at teams in similar positions
The Everton home defence
9th ranked at home with goals conceded 15 from 14 games
They are 6th in xG conceded at home with 16.10.
Shots per game against at home they are 4th with 9.4
The Burnley away defence
9th ranked away with goals conceded 21 from 14 games
8th in xG conceded away with 19.52.
Shots per game against away they are 16th with 15.6
Summary
Salah and De Bruyne are the 2 most popular picks with Aubameyang’s match postponed.
I imagine Salah will start. With the midweek Champions League match postponed I would think De Bruyne would start if fit. As usual though Pep is never predictable
The anytime goalscorer odds don’t reflect De Bruyne’s points potential as he is mainly an assister. Salah is £2.05 and De Bruyne £2.50
The FFGeek poll started shortly before the Champions League Man City postponement and further before the Arsenal postponement which has only just happened. It shows Salah clearly ahead but due to what I’ve just said has it’s limitations.
I’ve not put any contributor information up as yet. I’ll come back to that.
The Stats aren’t that far apart as both defences actually have reasonable records home and away. You have to think that Man City could crush Burnley at home though
As I said both defences aren’t too bad but Everton at home is the stronger of the 2
Salah will take pens if Milner is off the filed. De Bruyne will have set piece responsibility
The FFGeek choice
I probably will go with De Bruyne if I get the feeling that he will play. It’s impossible to think that Man City can’t potentially put up a decent score against Burnley irrespective of their overall stats.
Good luck whoever you choose
Transfer polls
Again thanks for taking the time to vote
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