Here’s our fantasy premier league captain pick GW35 article. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FFGeek captain poll, the contributors picks and stats to seek out the best captain choice. There’s also the results of the transfer poll. UPDATED for poll results and Contributor picks
fantasy premier league captain pick GW35 – plus transfer poll results
Fixtures
The Bookies team to win odds
The odds are for the team to win with the return from a £1.00 bet
Liverpool v Burnley £1.24 – Salah, Mane, Firmino
Man Utd v Southampton £1.28 – Fernandes, Martial , Rashford, Greenwood
Brighton v Man City £1.30 – Jesus, De Bruyne, Sterling, Mahrez
The anytime goal scorer odds
These are the odds for anytime goalscorer for £1 bet. They assume the player starts and don’t take into account assist potential
£1.75 – Salah
£1.80 – Vardy
£1.83 – Mane
£2.00 – Jesus, Sterling, Aubameyang
£2.10 – Pukki, Martial, Kane, Rashford
£2.15 – Deeney, Foden
£2.20 – Jimenez
£2.25 – Sarr, Abraham, Bruno Fernandes
£2.30 – Mahrez
£2.37 – Iheanacho
De Bruyne is £2.45
The FFGeek Poll
The FFGeek captain poll asks who will be your captain? Thanks for taking the time to vote
The Poll went up before the Thursday matches
Other FPL polls – UPDATED
Here’s the numbers as of late Friday night.
Contributor Picks – UPDATED
Now updated
Stats comparison
Salah vs Fernandes vs Vardy
Here’s some key performance stats. They are overall on a season basis home and away stats as the difference is somewhat theoretical at the moment.
PPM is points per match
Consistency is the % of games where the play got a goal or assist.
Explosiveness is the % of those returns that got a FPL 10 points or more.
Liverpool are 2nd in total xG and 3rd in shots per game.
Man Utd are ranked 4th in XG and 4th in shots per game.
Leicester are ranked 5th in XG and 5thth in shots per game.
Gametime
Liverpool have won the title and have nothing to play for. Mane and Firmino were rested in the last 2 games with Salah rested in GW30+. There remains a risk that his turn could be there for rotation again
Man Utd are chasing a Champions League spot. Fernandes has started every game since he joined. He was taken off with the game won after 70 minutes. That and easier first half of the season in the Portuguese League could mean he will start again
Leicester are also chasing a Champions League spot. Vardy starts every game and generally plays 90 when fit. Rodgers has tried to adjust his game to make it less demanding and more focused on scoring. It seems unlikely he will be rested with Iheanacho the only replacement.
The Burnley defence
11th ranked in goals conceded. 46 from 34 games
They are 9th in xG conceded with 48.
Shots per game against they are 15th with 14.1
It’s worth noting that they have had some maulings by the traditional top 6 sides
Man City 0-5, 1-4
Chelsea 0-3, 2-4
Spurs 0-5
Liverpool 0-3
The Southampton defence
16th ranked in goals conceded. 56 from 34 games
They are 15th in xG conceded with 52 expected goals.
Shots per game against they are 9th with 12.3
The Bournemouth defence
17th ranked in goals conceded. 59 from 34 games
They are 16th in xG conceded with 56 expected goals.
Shots per game against they are 17th with 14.9
Summary
Gametime wise you would think that Salah was most at risk given the last 2 games have seen the rotation of Mane and Firmino. Although Salah was rested GW30+. I would be surprised of Fernandes and Vardy didn’t start
Salah is the bookies favourite scorer with Vardy not far behind. Fernandes is treated like De Bruyne as an assist based player
The FFGeek poll shows Salah as clear leader although this was put up before the Man Utd match. UPDATED: The other polls favour Fernandes and the FFGeek poll when continued narrowed slightly the gap that Salah had over Fernades
The FFGeek contributors so far are backing Salah. UPDATED: The Contributors now favour Fernandes 47% to 33%.
The stats favour Salah in underlying stats but Fernandes in actual returns. However 3 of his 7 goals have come from the penalty spot which he recently shread with Rashford although took the penalty vs Villa.
The Bournemouth defence which Vardy will face is the worst of the 3 and certainly on recent form. Southampton is better than the stats as the 1 off 9-0 loss to Leicester tends to distort the figures. The Burnley defence is good against lower ranked teams but is suspceptible to a hiding from the traditional top 6 at least.
All 3 players should have penalty duties.
The FFGeek view
If someone could tell me Salah will definitely start he would be my pick. However given that he has to have some sort of risk attached to him I may go for Fernandes. There’s still something to go in this decision yet though
The Transfer Polls
Other Posts
FFGeek contributors teams GW35 part 2
FFGeek contributors teams GW35 part 1
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