Here’s our fantasy premier league captain pick GW38 article. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FFGeek captain poll, the contributors picks and stats to seek out the best captain choice.
fantasy premier league captain pick GW38
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The Fixtures
The Bookies team to win odds
The odds are for the team to win with the return from a £1.00 bet
Man City v Norwich £1.05 – Sterling, David Silva, Mahrez. (see my article on lineup prediction)
Newcastle v Liverpool £1.40 – Salah, Mane, Firmino
C Palace v Spurs £1.53 – Kane, Son
The anytime goal scorer odds
These are the odds for anytime goalscorer for £1 bet. They assume the player starts and don’t take into account assist potential
£1.50 – Sterling
£1.57 – Jesus
£1.70 – Aubameyang, Kane
£1.73 – Salah
£1.80 – Ings, Mahrez
£1.85 – Mahrez
£1.91 – Mane, Foden
£1.95 – Calvert Lewin
£2.00 – Richarlison,
£2.05 – Lacazette, De Bruyne
£2.10 – Wood
£2.15 – Son, Vardy, Rodriguez
£2.20 – Giroud, Abraham
£2.37 – Nketiah, Deeney
£2.40 – Antonio
The FFGeek Poll
The FFGeek captain poll asks who will be your captain? Thanks for taking the time to vote
Other FPL polls
Here’s the latest information:
Contributor Picks
Here’s the finished version:
Stats comparison
Sterling vs D Silva vs Salah vs Kane
Here’s some key performance stats. They are overall on a season basis home and away stats as the difference is somewhat theoretical at the moment.
PPM is points per match
Consistency is the % of games where the play got a goal or assist.
Explosiveness is the % of those returns that got a FPL 10 points or more.
Man City are ranked 1st in XG and 1st in shots per game.
Liverpool are ranked 2nd in XG and 3rd in shots per game.
Spurs are ranked 10th in XG and 7th in shots per game.
Gametime
I have written an article on my views on the Man City lineup although who knows who Pep will start. David Silva in his last Premier League game seems certain as you ever can be to start. Sterling is less certain. There is the prospect of leaked team news which I’ve talked about previously to help the situation.
Hard to see Salah and Kane not starting.
The Norwich defence
20th ranked in goals conceded. 70 from 37 games
They are 19th in xG conceded with 68.
Shots per game against they are 19th with 15.7
They are already relegated and have conceded 14 goals in their last 6.
The Newcastle defence
14th ranked in goals conceded. 55 from 37 games
They are 17th in xG conceded with 66.
Shots per game against they are 18th with 14.9
They are safe from relegation and have conceded 13 goals in their last 6 although that included 5 v Man City and have their best CB in Lascelles injured.
The Palace defence.
10th ranked in goals conceded. 49 from 37 games
They are 13th in xG conceded with 57.
Shots per game against they are 13th with 13.6
They are safe from relegation and have conceded 13 goals in their last 6 and have injuries to their 2 first choice CBs and left back.
Summary:
Gametime wise I would think Silva is a pretty certain starter is his last PL game. There is more risk attached to Sterling although a leaked team sheet is a prospect. I would be very surprised if Kane and Salah don’t play
Sterling is the clear leader in the Captain Polls with Silva generally next
The FFGeek Contributors are clearly backing Sterling
The attacking stats favour Sterling and Salah by some distance although Sterling hasn’t been that much of a consistent returner.
The Norwich defence looks a disaster at the moment although both Newcastle and Palace are going through bad patches including injuries especially to Palace.
The FFGeek view
I talk about it in my team selection article and my intention is to get Sterling in and captain him considering the opposition, his leadership in the Polls and his ability to rack up a big score.
Good luck whoever you choose
Other posts
Thinking about the Manchester City GW38 lineup
The FFGeek readers Free Hit team vote
The FFGeek Contributors teams Part 1
The FFGeek Contributors Free Hit teams
The FFGeek readers Free Hit team
The FFGeek Contributors teams part 3
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