Background 

Looking firstly at the games that will most likely generate the most goals.

Here’s the best fixtures:

1.  Liverpool v West Brom

2.  Aston Villa v Man City

From those games I’ve picked Sterling and Aguero.  I’m also going to look at Costa due to his form

Sterling (WBA Home )

• Will he start?

After not playing in the Premier league against Villa and then playing the full 120 minutes in the Capital One anything is possible.  However given the England fixtures being relatively easy hopefully Rodgers wont feel the need to rest him before the international break

• How consistent is he generally  and at home.

So far reasonably consistent overall.  He’s returned a goal and an assist in 50% of his games so far.  In home games though he performed less then away games.  He’s only returned in 1 of his 3 games which was home to Southampton where he got a goal and an assist.  In terms of big hauls he’s had 2 10 point plus hauls.  1 at home to Soutahmpton the other away at West Ham where he was the only bright Liverpoool light

• How has he performed against low placed opposition home

No data so far.  There’s only the 30 minutes at home he played against Villa where he blanked when Liverpool were terrible.  Obviously it was important to Rodgers that he was rested before the home game against the mighty Bulgarian Champions Ludogorets

• Whats his recent form like

Here’s his 3 home games:

SOU(H) 2-1 90 1 goal and 1 assist 13 points
AVL(H) 0-1 30 Blanked 1 points
EVE(H) 1-1 90 Blanked 2 points

His home form is far worse than his away form to date.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Believe it or not no team has got more clean sheets away than WBA’s 2 from 3 games and no team has conceded less than WBA’s 3 goals in 3 away games.

Here’s their 3 results away from home:

SOU(A) 0-0
SWA(A) 0-3
TOT(A) 1-0

So pretty impressive stats that’s for sure with 2 clean sheets in 3 games.  Wisdom is ineligible but Costa Rican International Gamboa will come in.  The new CB partnership of Dawson and Lescott seems to have given them more solidity

• Overall thoughts

Before analysis this seemed an ideal fixture but a closer look it doesn’t seem that straightforward.  However 3 home games and 6 games overall isn’t alot of data

 Aguero (Villa away)

• Will he start?

Always a difficult one.  Jovetic is fit so in theory he could start Dzeko and Jovetic.  The International break gives Aguero some respite although it’s likely to see him play against Brazil in China.  His scoring record as a sub is mind blowing anyway.  Already this year it’s 2 for 2 goals

• How consistent is he generally  and  at home?

Excellent.     Returned a goal or assist in 4 out of 6 games overall ie  67%.  2 of those games were late on sub appearances where he scored in both.  3 goals in 3 away games so far so a 100% return rate.

• How has he performed against low placed opposition away

Excellent.  2/2 scored against Newcastle in 8 minutes of pitch time and against Hull

• Whats his recent form like

Excellent:  Here’s his  3 away games

NEW(A) 2-0 8 minutes 1 goal  6 points
ARS(A) 2-2 66 minutes  1 goal 6 points
HUL(A) 4-2 71 minutes 1 goal 8 points

So returned in 3/3 away games.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Overall they’ve got 3 clean sheets in the 6 games and have conceded 7 goals.  Only 4 teams have conceded less.  Tellingly though in the last 2 games against Arsenal at home ands Chelsea away they’ve conceded 3 goals in each game

Here’s their 3 home results

NEW(H) 0-0
HUL(H) 2-1
ARS(H) 0-3

Unfortunately for Villa Vlaar wont be playing which is a big loss.  He was absent for the losses to Arsenal and Chelsea although he was absent in the win at Anfield so they can get a result without him.

• Is he an option? 

Aguero can score against any team at any venue in any competition.  Rotation and injury/fitness are his only limitations

Costa ( Arsenal home)

Will he  start?

Mourinho has said he will start

How consistent is he  overall and at home?

Returned in 5/6 games so far an 83% return rate.  At home its  5 goals in 3 games.

How has he performed at home against good opposition?

No data.  The 3 home games have been against lower ranked sides.  His only blank in 6 games was against Man City away where he was well shackled

Whats his recent form like? 

Costa’s 3 home games:

LEI(H) 2-0   79 minutes 1 goal  6 points
SWA(H) 4-2    71 minutes 3 goals  17 points
AVL(H) 3-0   80 minutes  1  goal 6 points

Couldn’t be much better

Whats the opposition defence like?

Last year their away defence was pretty ordinary.

Here’s their 3 away games so far:

EVE(A) 2-2
LEI(A) 1-1
AVL(A) 3-0

So could be better.  The Everton game certainly suggested defensive frailty away from home against strong opposition.

Is he an option?

On current form he has to be an option

Bookmaker check

Here’s the anytime goal scoring odds at £2.00 or under:

£1.73 – Balotelli

£1.80 – Sturridge

£1.83 – Falcao

£1.91 – Lambert, Costa

£2.00 – Aguero, RVP

Sterling is £2.10.

I’ve dismissed Sturridge and Lambert due to gametime risk.  Balotelli has just been too unpredictable to me to be considered a captain option.  I also didn’t analyse Falcao and RVP as they have yet to be convincing enough for the captains armband although they both have the potential and ability.  Interestingly they have given lower odds to Costa than Aguero

Thats it hope that helps any last minute captain issues you may have.  I’ve gone for Costa but I don’t have Aguero in my team.  If I did I probably would have put him in as captain

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Fantasy premier league captain picks

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