Background 

Looking firstly at the games that will most likely generate the most goals.

Here’s the best fixtures:

1.  Arsenal v Hull

2.  C Palace v Chelsea

3.  QPR v Liverpool

4.  WBA v Man Utd

From those games I’ve picked Welbeck, Costa, Sterling, Di Maria and added Aguero for form

Welbeck (Hull Home )

• Will he start?

Is a doubt after the International break but nothing from Wenger about him yesterday when speaking of the injured players.  That could suggest he will play?

• How consistent is he generally  and at home.

Not great.  Overall it’s 1 returning game in 4 since joining Arsenal and he’s blanked in the 2 home games.  The fixtures haven’t been easy though with the 2 home games being City and Spurs.

• How has he performed against low placed opposition home

No data so far. He was brilliant in a hat trick against a poor Galatasary side.

• Whats his recent form like

Here’s his  premier league home games since joining Arsenal:

MCI(H) 2-2 87 mins no goals no assists
TOT(H) 1-1 90 mins no goals no assists

Difficult opposition for your first games.  He did have chances but didn’t finish if you take that as a positive.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Here’s their away results so far

QPR(A) 1-0
AVL(A) 1-2
NEW(A) 2-2

So nothing special.  There appears to be 2 Hull defensive teams.  The solid team that plays 3-5-2 and the defensively frail team that plays 4-4-2.  Hard to see anything but 3-5-2 against Arsenal especially after the solid performance it gave at home to Palace.  The overall warning though is that Hull haven’t travelled well

• Overall thoughts

A definite starting risk.  Arsenal have a number of injurys but depth in midfield to not affect chances for Welbeck significantly.  He should get chances it’s just whether you believe he’ll put them away

 Costa (Palace away)

• Will he start?

Unfortunately it’s the same old will he/wont he start saga.  Mourinho has said he’s a doubt?  The only data we have to make any sense of the situation is that on 2 occaisons in similar situations Costa has started.  The good news is that the Champions League game midweek is home to Maribor.  That should be a rest opportunity. The risk really though is that he starts on the bench and comes on late for the classic 1 pointer.  We don’t have any data to make this assessment unfortunately and it remains a risk

• How consistent is he generally  and  away?

Excellent.     Overall he’s returned a goal or assist in 6/7 games.  Away from home he’s returned in 2/3 games scoring 3 goals.

• How has he performed against low placed opposition away

Excellent.  Only 1 of the 3 games is against low placed opposition and that was against Burnley where he scored

• Whats his recent form like

Excellent;  Here’s his 3 away games

BUR(A) 3-1 90 1 goal
EVE(A) 6-3 90 2 goals
MCI(A) 1-1 85 blank

So returned in 2/3 away games.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Here’s their 3 home games:

WHU(H) 1-3
BUR(H) 0-0
LEI(H) 2-0

so 2/3 clean sheets but they’ve hardly played the most formidable attacking options. The 3 goals conceded to West Ham was pretty disturbing though.  The loss of Scott Dann won’t help the situation given the rather ordinary form of his likely replacement Hangeland who’s hardly the most mobile player to deal with Chelsea’s counter attack.  Mariappa or Kelly to play CB as alternatives is a big ask considering they’ve mainly played as FBs recently

• Is he an option? 

The only question is whether he starts

 Sterling ( QPR away)

Will he  start?

No suggestion he won’t although Rodgers has been pretty unpredicatable in his treatment of him.  The loss of Sturridge and current form makes it hard to believe he won’t start.

How consistent is he  overall and away?

Good.  Overall he’s got 3 goals and 2 assists in 7 games with returns in 4/7 games.  Away he’s got 2 goals in 3 games returning in 2/3.

How has he performed away against low placed opposition?

Good.  West Ham away is the only low placed opposition where he scored and played well

Whats his recent form like? 

Here’s his 3 away games:

MCI(A) 1-3   78 minutes   Blank  2 points
TOT(A) 3-0  85 minutes   1 goal  7 points
WHU(A) 1-3 90 minutes   1 goal  10  points

Whats the opposition defence like?

Last year their away defence was pretty ordinary.

HUL(H) 0-1
SUN(H) 1-0
STK(H) 2-2

So 1 clean sheet and 3 goals conceded isn’t too bad but no strong opposition and they looked very vulnerable to Stoke.  No injury issues in defence

Is he an option?

Should start.  Has good away form and opposition vulnerable.

Di Maria (WBA away )

• Will he start?

No indication he won’t and no pesky Champions League to worry about

• How consistent is he generally  and away.

3 goals 3 assists in 5 games returning in 3 of 5.  Returned in 1 of his 2 away games.

• How has he performed against low placed opposition away

See below as only played 2 games

• Whats his recent form like

Here’s his 2 away games

BUR(A) 0-0   69 minutes  Blanked  3 points
LEI(A) 3-5     75  minutes   1 goal 1 assist   11 points

• Whats the opposition defence like

Here’s their home results so far:

SUN(H) 2-2
EVE(H) 0-2
BUR(H) 4-0

So apart from Burnely not that impressive.  They have been better away.  The defence seems to have improved dramatically since Lescott became fit and Dawson as his partner which is the watchout.

• Overall thoughts

A great player in a team that should get goals.  WBA have improved defensively and will treat this as an away game sitting deep.  They have been impressive with this tactic.

Aguero (Spurs Home )

• Will he start?

Nothing to suggest he won’t.  Was rested for the 2nd international break game and hard to see him not starting against such strong opposition

• How consistent is he generally  and at home.

Excellent:  Overall he’s scored 5 goals and returned in 5/7 games 2 of which were subs.  At home he hasn’t been as great scoring in 1 game and blanking in 2 where the opposition parked the bus.

• How has he performed against good  opposition home

Only Chelsea and Liverpool at home to test the theory.  He scored against Liverpool but blanked against a very defensive Chelsea

• Whats his recent form like

Here’s his  3 premier league home games

LIV(H) 3-1    23 minutes   1 goal  6 points
STK(H) 0-1   90 minutes  blank  2 points
CHE(H) 1-1   90 minutes  blank  2 points

So hasn’t been sucessful against the 2 teams that have come and parked the bus

• Whats the opposition defence like

WHU(A) 1-0
SUN(A) 2-2
ARS(A) 1-1

So apart from the Sunderland game good defensive performances.  No particular new injuries apart from Lloris being a doubt but Vorm or Friedel can deputise

• Overall thoughts

Despite the home blanks Aguero can score any place, any time against any team.  Spurs I don’t believe will park the bus which will help Aguero.

Bookmaker check

Here’s the anytime goal scoring odds at £2.00 or under:

£1.73 – Welbeck, Costa,

£1.83 – Aguero, Sanchez, Sanogo, Akpom, Lukaku, Balotelli, Sturridge, Falcao,

£1.91 – Remy, Pelle, RVP

£2.00 – Dzeko, Eto’o

Sterling is £2.30 and Di Maria £2.70 although they both have assist potential to add to possible points.

I’ve eliminated Sanogo, Akpom, Remy and Eto’o for gametime risk.  Sturridge is injured.

There are too many other options here in Sanchez, Balotelli, Falcao, Pelle, RVP and Dzeko for me to go into so I’ll let you make up your own mind

I’ve gone for Costa with Di Maria as the safe gametime option as Utd have no Champions League games

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