fantasy premier league captain picks GW31

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain picks GW31. As ususal we look at the bookies odds, the other FPL sites polls and any of the top 10 FPL managers we follow plus the FFGeek choice. We also analyse the stats of the leading contenders. There’s also a summary to interpret the results

fantasy premier league captain picks GW31

The fixtures

The bookies odds

Here’s the anytime goal scoring odds from one bookie as of today for below £2.50 for £1 invested:

£1.85 – Kane

£2.05 – Aguero

£2.10 – Traore (Chelsea)

£2.25 – Remy

£2.30 – Vardy, Lukaku

£2.40 – Paloschi, Gomis

Sigurdsson is £2.80 but remember he has  assist potential

The FPL advice Polls

So a clear leader in the polls.  Site 1 is the largest FPL advice site and the poll has a pretty good correlation between that and the overall top 10k captain pick.

The ten top FPL managers

Only 1 has shown himself and that person went for Kane

Some basic stats of the leading contenders

Sigurdsson (Villa H)

Here’s his overall stats for the season: 30 games 9 goals and 2 assists. Minutes per FPL point 19.3 mins. Consistency returns 11/30  37%. 10+ point scoring 3/30   10%. Last 6 games 37 points and returns in 4/6 games. May have pens and has set pieces

Here’s his last 6 away games most recent at the bottom:

WBA(H) 1-0 90 minutes   3 pts
SUN(H) 2-4 90minutes    7 pts
WAT(H) 1-0 90  minutes    2 pts
CRY(H) 1-1 90  minutes 10 pts
SOU(H) 0-1 90  minutes 2 pts
NOR(H) 1-0 90 minutes 10 pts

The Villa defence

Overall:  57 goals conceded.  The worst in the league. 5 clean sheets the 3rd worst in the league.

Away : 32 goals conceded 3rd worst in league.  2 clean sheets away 4th equal worst

Here’s their last 6 away games most recent at the bottom:

NOR(A) 0-2
SUN(A) 1-3
WBA(A) 0-0
WHU(A) 0-2
STK(A) 1-2
MCI(A) 0-4

Kane (Bournemouth h)

Here’s his overall stats for the season: 30 games 19 goals and 2 assists. Minutes per FPL point 16.5 mins. Consistency returns 14/30 47%. 10+ point scoring 6/30 20%. Last 6 games 31 points and returns in 3/6 games. Also has pens. Good shooting stats.  Rested for the midweek Europa League game

Started slowly but has improved massively.

NOR(H) 3-0 90 minutes 13 points
LEI(H) 0-1 90minutes   2 points
SUN(H) 4-1 87 minutes  10 points
WAT(H) 1-0 90 minutes  2 points
SWA(H) 2-1 83 minutes  2 points
ARS(H) 2-2 90 minutes 6 points

So a bit hit and miss but has punished the 2 worst defences

Bournemouth defence

Overall: 47 goals conceded the 6th worst team.  7 clean sheets and 6th equal worst clean sheet record

Away: 24 goals conceded.  5th worst GC away.  3 clean sheets and 8th worst clean sheets

Here’s their last 6 away games most recent at the bottom:

ARS(A) 0-2
LEI(A) 0-0
SUN(A) 1-1
CRY(A) 2-1
WAT(A) 0-0
NEW(A) 3-1

Summary

Kane is a clear leader in the polls and in the bookies odds.

Siggy has had a slow start but has shown real form recently.  He is the CAM of the attack and has a great set piece responsibility.  Also possibly could take pens.  His underlying stats though are pretty ordinary.  What you do have is Swansea playing Villa.  A team seemingly forlon of hope although I have to say that I expected to see worse results away from home then their recent ones.

Similar thoughts in some ways on Kane.  A slow start but in great form now.  Unlike Siggy though he has very good underlying stats and is nailed on for pens.  Importantly he was rested in the midweek Europa League game although he may suffer from his team mates playing.  The Bournemouth defence though hasn’t looked that bad in recent away games although this is alittle masked by ok fixtures and over the season it has been one of the worst

So it’s Siggy who has not as good a form but against a worse team than Kane who has beeter form but against a better defence.

From a tactical point of view.  Kane has a high ownership in the top 10k and 45% overall so if you believe in defensive captain picks then go for him as if he is successful and your alternative pick fails then your rank will suffer.  Conversly the reverse would give you a big rank push.  As I said depends on your view of risk

However some of this may depend on your view of risk.

The FFGeek choice

I’ve worked too hard to improve my rank to trake a risk against Kane to go with anyone else.

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