Fantasy premier league captain picks gameweek 33

Fantasy Premier League

Here’s my fantasy premier league captain options for fantasy premier league gameweek 33.   A potential bumper week for those considering deviating from Suarez.

Fantasy premier league captain picks gameweek 33

Background 

Just as a general point for those coming to the site for the first time.   I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the potentially relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.   The theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.  However at the moment Suarez and Sturridge are breaking all the rules and is a form option irrespective of the opposition.

Here’s the best fixtures:

1. Man City v Southampton

2.  Newcastle v Man Utd

3. Chelsea v Stoke

4.  West Ham v Liverpool

Here’s my picks from those games.    Rooney Hazard Suarez.  I’ve also added in Benteke because he’s, well, playing Fulham.  NOTE THERE ARE SOME REPORTS BENTEKE IS OUT FOR THE SEASON.  I’ve ignored the City game due to doubts over whether Aguero will be fit.  That has implications for Dzeko and YYT as it would implicate on his pens.  If there’s any more clarity Aguero would be an option if the prognosis suggests he will start.  If Aguero isn’t fit then Dzeko would be an option.  There are more players with anytime goalscorer odds below £2.00 that I can remember for sometime

Hazard (Stoke Home )

  • Will he start?

Started all premier league games except 1.   However this game sandwiched in between the PSG champions league games means he could be rested.  Maybe the Mourinho press conference will help

  • How consistent is he generally  and at home.

Not that consistent but has the potential to score big.    Returned in 15 of 31 games ie 48% . Out of the 14 goals and 10 assists overall he’s got 10 goals at home and 2 assists at home. So he’s better at home.  He’s returned in 9 of his 16 games at home 56%.  5 of his fantasy premier league 10 point + hauls have been at home.

  • How has he performed against poor opposition home

Good.  Returned against Villa, Cardiff, WBA, Palace, Swansea, Newcastle and Villa. Not against West Ham , Fulham and Hull

  • Whats his recent form like

Here’s his last 5 home games:

WHU(H) –  blanked
NEW(H) –  3 goals
EVE(H) –  blanked
TOT(H) –  1 goal
ARS(H) –   1 goal

Reasonable form

  • Whats the opposition defence like

Poor away from home.  Only Cardiff, Fulham and Norwich have conceded more.  Arsenal put 3 against them at home.  Everton 4 but City only 1.

Here’s their last 5 results away from home:

SUN(A) 0-1
SOU(A) 2-2
MCI(A) 0-1
NOR(A) 1-1
AVL(A) 4-1

They definitely seem to have tightened up.

Huth is their only injury defensive issue but he’s been off for some time

  • Is he an option? 

Has gametime risk due to Champions league.  Can score big at home and has pens if Lamps off the field.  Can also blank.  It’s about how much risk you want to take.

 Rooney (Newcastle away)

  • Will he start?

He should do but like Hazard United have a Champions league game in Munich midweek.  While it’s hard to imagine United doing anything without Rooney the fact is they have nothing to play for in the league and it’s possible he could be rested for this game.  Maybe we’ll know more after Fridays press conference but I wouldn’t bank on it given the cryptic and downright misleading information Moyes pumps out.

  • How consistent is he generally  and  at home?

Excellent.     Returned in 17 out of 27 games ie  63% .  15 goals and 12 assists so far this season.  10 goals and 7 assists of those are away.  Returned in 10/13 games away 77%

  • How has he performed against poor opposition away

Excellent.  Has only not returned against Arsenal, Stoke and Sunderland.

  • Whats his recent form like

Here’s his last 5 away games

STK(A) – blanked
ARS(A) – blanked
CRY(A) –  1 goal
WBA(A) – 1 goal 1 assist
WHU(A) – 2 goals

So returned in 3/5 away games.

  • Whats the opposition defence like

Conceded 22 goals in 16 games.  Only 6 teams have conceded more.  Conceded more than 1 goal 6 times.  Currently have injuries to Debuchy and Krul.  Krul injury is a big blow

Here’s their last 5 home results

SUN(H) 0-3
TOT(H) 0-4
AVL(H) 1-0
CRY(H) 1-0
EVE(H) 0-3

Man City scored 2 at Newcastle.  Arsenal 1.

  • Is he an option? 

Good form.  Strong away from home.  Has pens.  Playing as the most advanced striker with Mata behind.  Playing a defence in poor form with 2 key injuries.  Looks an option.

Suarez (West Ham home)

Will he both start?

Definitely

How consistent is he  overall and away?

Suarez is an 85% returner.  Returned in 10 out of 14 away (71%)

How have they performed away against ok opposition?

As you can see he’s returned in 10 out of 14 games away.  Didn’t return against Fulham, Man City, Hull and Arsenal.

Whats their recent form like? 

Suarez’s last 5 away games:

WBA(A)  – 1 assist
FUL(A)  – blanked
SOU(A)  – 1 goal 2 assists
MUN(A)  – 1 goal 1 assist
CAR(A)   – 3  goals 1 assist

Whats the opposition defence like?

Good.   But have conceded alot of goals against the top 4 challenging teams.  3 conceded against Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Everton.

Is he an option?

He’s always an option.

Benteke (Fulham home)

  • Will he start?

There are unconfirmed reports he’s out for the season.  Monitor before you pick him.

  • How consistent is he generally  and at home.

Not that consistent. Overall  returned in 9/27 games.  6 goals and 1 assist out of an overall total of 10 goals and 2 assists have been at home.  Returned in 5 out of 12 games at home (42%)

  • How has he performed against poor opposition home

Very Good.  Returned well against Newcastle, Stoke, Norwich and WBA.  Blanked against Cardiff.

  • Whats his recent form like

Here’s his last 5 home games:

ARS(H) – 1 goal
WBA(H) – 1 goal 1 assist
WHU(H) – blanked
NOR(H) – 2 goals
CHE(H) – blanked
STK(H – 1 goal

Good form

  • Whats the opposition defence like

Dreadful.  With Norwich have conceded 39 goals away.  The worst in the league.

Here’s their last 5 results away from home:

SWA(A) 0-2
MUN(A) 2-2
WBA(A) 1-1
CAR(A) 1-3
MCI(A) 0-5

Hopeless.  Alot of tinkering going on by the new manager as well

  • Is he an option? 

In good form.  Has pens playing against the worst away defence in the league.  Like everyone else though you have to believe Suarez will not perform to obtain any benefit and thats a big risk.

 

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at or under £2.00:

1.  £1.57 – Eto’o Suarez

2.  £1.61 – Aguero

3.  £1.73 –  Torres and Rooney

4.  £1.80 – Hazard and Sturridge

5.  £1.91 – Negredo, Dzeko, Benteke, Adebayor

 

As I said above I’ve ignored Dzeko, Aguero and Negredo due to injury and gametime concerns.  Eto’o didn’t play in Paris after an injury.  Hard to think he will play against Stoke as if he is fit Mourinho will save him for the return game against Paris next week.  Torres I just don’t trust.  Sturridge I’ve put to one side with Suarez as the preffered Liverpool option. Adebayor is still injured with no return date.

I hope that gives you some food for thought for your fantasy premier league captain choice.

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William Hill odds are as per the time of writing the article on 3 April 2014

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