Here’s my fantasy premier league captain tips gameweek 37, including the analysis and thought process. There’s a summary at the end if you want to cut to the chase.
Here’s the candidates in my mind:
RVP
Game time is the only question here for me. However here’s my theory. It will be SAFs last game at Old Trafford so he will want to go out with a win. RVP really is a good insurance for this. In addition there’s also the Rooney transfer saga which means there’s a good chance the Rooney on the bench policy will continue. It wont be seen as punishment as its a continuation of a policy. Therefore in my mind it will be a start. Here’s how he has scored against the lower teams in the 2nd half of the year
Southampton H 2 points
Nor H 5 points
Reading H 2 points
Aston Villa H 17 points
So apart from the Villa game he’s not really set the world alight at home against the poorer teams.
He does have a good recent record though as his last 3 starts have got 27 points. He is also consistent returning in 11/15 of his matches since the new year. Thats a 73% chance of a return. In 3 of those games he’s got double figure returns which is 20% overall.
He is also in the best current form of any striker in underlying stats, takes pens and has his share of set pieces.
The Swansea defence away from home has performed well in terms of goals only conceding 23 goals in 18 games and they have 5 clean sheets. Their underlying stats haven’t been that good though and they may not have Vorm available today. Their record away from home against the elite sides is pretty good
City A Lost 1-0
Arsenal A won 2-0
Spurs away lost 1-0
Everton A drew 0-0
Liverpool A lost 5-0
Chelsea A lost 2-0
So a reasonable record apart from the Liverpool game.
However lets not forget the occasion. Utd will be very motivated with SAFs last home game and Swansea defensively were awful against Wigan and have nothing to play for.
In addition he is bound to be the top captain choice this week so if youre leading your league he should be the safe option to take to cancel out a large proportion of the chasers.
Walcott
No game time issues here. Wenger has said he wont play as striker through the middle but the set up with Podolski drifting left in to the space made by Cazorla leads to Walcott often drifting in to the central position.
He’s in great form with 24 points in his last 3 starts and his underlying returns have improved to match this to the extent that he’s got the 5th ranking for all midfielders.
Lets look at his record this year against lower teams at home
West Ham H 11 points
Stoke H 6 points
Aston Villa H 2 points
So good without being fantastic.
Consistency wise he’s been excellent in the new year returning in 10/14 starts which is 71% comparable with RVP
The Wigan away defence in underlying stats isn’t that bad but they are vulnerable to the odd thrashing. They’ve conceded 30 goals in 18 away games with only 3 clean sheets.
Here’s their record away to the elite sides which tends to show that
Man U A lost 0-4
Spurs away won 1-0
Liverpool A lost 0-3
Everton A lost 1-2
Chelsea A lost 1-4
City A lost 0-1
So a thrashing is definitely potentially on that’s for sure especially with injuries to Figueroa Alcaraz Ramis Stam and Beaujesour. They were awful against Swansea and you know the defence is going to be poor when Espinoza lines up at LB. They also have to win so if Arsenal score early they will be vulnerable to the Arsenal and Walcott counter attack . They were fantastic against City defensively but that was with a full strength defensive team. There’s also the cup final hangover and tiredness that will come from chasing City all over the pitch.
Walcott is a solid pick in my mind against a poor defensive team
Bale
This is all about form not about the fixture. There’s no gametime risk he will definitely play and Spurs have to win. Stoke are all but mathematically safe from relegation. Their defence in underlying terms has performed alot more like its old self although in actual terms its more mid table with 7 games conceded in the last 6 and 2 clean sheets. Stoke have alot of issues at FB with the 2 better defensive FBs of Wilson and Wilkinson injured meaning Shotton and Cameron will play. Bale should still play through the centre which will be more difficult with the Stoke CDMs but if he needs to drift wide he should get some joy
But this is Gareth Bale away from home. Does the other team matter? Lets look at his 2nd half record away from home against the lower teams
QPR A 6 points
Norwich A 8 points
WBA A 11 points
West Ham A 15 points
Swansea A 13 points
Wigan A 12 points
It doesn’t get much better than that does it? Consistency wise he’s returned in 11/14 (79%) better than RVP and has only not returned in games against Chelsea A, Fulham H and Man U H.
Its a bit of a risk given the opposition but this is such a special player in a team that has to win against a team with nothing to play for.
Summary
You can make cases for each of the players and I would be happy picking either of the 3. But for me here’s the line up
1. Bale
2. Walcott
3. RVP
Players I’ve not picked
Any City players – who knows who will play against Reading? Dzeko is the most likely to start and he is an option if you’re willing to gamble
Any Chelsea players – Rafa has said that lamps will start. He takes pens and is desperate to score but he is a little deep for me. However there should be goals so its just whether you think a pen is likely.
Sturridge – Fulham aren’t mathematically safe and they aren’t the most reliable defensive team. I just think that the above 3 players are better options and its just too much of a risk
Good luck if you go with any of my Fantasy premier league captain tips gameweek 37.