fantasy premier league captain tips GW12 – plus transfer poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW12 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW12 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

There is 1 big favourite this week:

Liverpool v Fulham £1.10 – Salah, Mane, Firmino

Then there are 3 further out

Man City v Man Utd – £1.38 Aguero, Sterling, D Silva

Chelsea v Everton– £1.38 Hazard, Morata

Leicester v Burnley – £1.55  Vardy

The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.20 for £1 invested as of Saturday morning. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential

£1.44 – Salah

£1.65 – Mane

£1.70 – Aguero

£1.73 – Firmino, Kane

£1.83 – Vardy

£1.91 – Hazard

£2.00 – Lacazette

£2.05 – Sterling

£2.10 – Morata

£2.20 – Aubameyang, Mahrez

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll:

You can see the full FFGeek captain poll with this link

Here’s a summary of 4 captain polls:

The FFGeek poll went out on Friday after the European games and manager press conferences whereas the others went out earlier.  The FFGeek poll should most accurately reflect what active FPL managers are doing

Btw, the FFGeek poll asks who will you captain as does site 2 although just gives you a few options. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 3 is silent on the question.

The FFGeek contributors

Here’s the FFGeek contributors captain picks as it stands. Pretty much a full house this week

You can see Andrew Ferguson’s team in his article also there’s the other contributors teams article part 1 and contributors part 2 and contributors part 3

Some stats

This week I’m looking at Liverpool team mates Salah and Mane as the poll leaders

Salah

Here’s Salah’s starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides at home.

Returns in 4/4 games . Great minutes but Bonus points are the obvious issues though with him only getting bonus points once when he returned 4 times.

Overall Salah’s Points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 6.4 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 6 of his 11 starts which is 55%. He has the best underlying stats of any midfielder when on the pitch and is my top ranked midfielder for projected points over the next 6 matches

Mane

Here’s Mane’s starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides at home

So returns in 2 of the 4 games or 50%.  The average points are similar to Salah but he’s less consistent but more explosive on that data.  He’s got bonus in both games he’s returned but it would be going some not to get some sort of bonus if you score twice.

Overall Mane’s Points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 6.7 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 4 of his 10 starts which is 40% which isn’t great for the price. His underlying stats are good if not anywhere near Salah’s and he’s a low volume shot and key passer compared to Salah who has the highest volume of shots when on the pitch of any midfielder.

The Fulham away defence

The Fulham away defence has played 2 top 6 teams away

GW2 Spurs 1-3. 3.27 xG conceded and 25 shots.

GW5 Man City 0-3 4.92 xG conceded and 28 shots

To call these numbers hideous is an understatement

They have also  played Arsenal at home and lost 1-5 where they were unlucky to face a finishing masterclass from Aubameyang and Lacazette with an xG conceded of only 1.14 and 9 shots.

Overall in goals conceded they are 20th having conceded 29 goals. In xG conceded they are 2nd only to the equally hapless Burnley.

 Summary

After the rather disastrous midweek UCL loss to Red Star anything is possible in the lineups so I won’t pretend to guess what could happen but the week before an International Break doesn’t scream the need for rest.  Both played 90 minutes in that game.

Salah is 2nd to Milner on penalties.  Milner isn’t a guaranteed starter and played 90 minutes v Red Star.

The Bookies have Salah at £1.44 anytime goalscoring odds and Mane £1.65

The polls have Salah as a comprehensive leader. I think the FFGeek poll will be the most reflective of what people are doing as we started late with full information and that’s 58% Salah to 22% Mane.

Stats wise they are similar overall but very different in their games v the non top 6 sides at home.  Salah has been consistent but not explosive and struggled for bonus.  Mane has got 2 goals in 2 games and blanked in the other 2.

The FFGeek choice

I don’t have Mane anyway but with the polls as they are it would be Salah anyway as the shield option.  For me he is still an explosion waiting to happen.

The transfer in and out polls

So it seems that a common transfer is Mitrovic out for Arnautovic and Maddison for a good spread but more for Anderson than anyone else

That’s it hope you found it useful.

See Yaniv’s (8K OR last season) and my imaginary wildcard teams also the popular and not so popular forwards in the bandwagons and sinking ships article plus also who the 10 top managers I follow have in their team. Also who I have or maybe interested in getting in the early thoughts on the FFgeek team article

Also see who Andrew Ferguson has in his team.  He finished 715 OR last season. Paul Williams who finished 412 last season has some differential suggestions in his article

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