fantasy premier league captain tips GW13 – plus transfer poll results


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There is no “safe” captain pick this week and a high probability that your choice will be overall rank affecting.   Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW13 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW13 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

fantasy premier league captain tips GW13

The Bookies Team win odds

It’s very interesting this week

West Ham v Man City  – £1.25 Aguero, Sterling, Silva D

Man Utd v C Palace – £1.40 – Martial

Everton v Cardiff – £1.42 – Richarlison, Sigurdsson

Wolves v Cardiff – £1.47 – Jimenez

Watford v Liverpool – £1.55 – Salah, Mane, Firmino

Liverpool v Fulham £1.10 – Salah, Mane, Firmino

The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.37 for £1 invested as of Thursday evening. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential



£1.61 – Aguero

£1.83 – Salah

£1.95 – Kane

£2.00 – Sterling, Lacazette

£2.10 – Richarlison

£2.15 – Mane, Sane, Mahrez, Aubameyang

£2.25 – Vardy, Martial, Wilson

£2.30 – Jimenez

£2.37 – Hazard

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll:

fantasy premier league captain tips GW13

You can see the full FFGeek captain poll with this link

Here’s a summary of 4 captain polls:

Site 1% FFGeek% Site 2% Site 3%
Richarlison 33 19 28 19
Salah 23 29 33 30
Aguero 17 41 34 31
Sterling 5 3 not on list not on list

Btw, the FFGeek poll asks who will you captain as does site 2 although just gives you a few options. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 3 is silent on the question.

The FFGeek contributors

Here’s the latest position at around 10pm UK time Friday.  Things will change as this week is a procrastinator’s nightmare

Contributor Captain
Joseph Crilley Aguero
Rob Reid Aguero
Alex Ball Salah
Keith Spencer Salah
Scott Hargadon Aguero
FPL Word Aguero
Mikael D Salah
Jordan Sadler Salah
Costas Chari Richarlison
Sergio Torija Martial
Yaniv Salomon Aguero but anything could happen
Mikael H
Stephen Troop Salah
Andrew Ferguson Rich/Salah
Robert Cosgrove Aguero
Prakhar Patel Salah
Joe Armiger

Some stats

This week I’m looking at the 3 poll leaders in Aguero, Salah and Richarlison

Aguero

Here’s Agueros starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides away.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW13

Alot has been made of Aguero’s away form this season but it does ignore that 4 of the 5 away games have been vs Wolves, Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal so it’s not surprising that it isn’t as good as his home form.

Returns in 1/2 games and not a great average or minutes.  Shot volumes were good though even if the xG and xA are disappointing.

Overall Aguero’s Points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 8.2 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 8 of his 12 starts which is 67%. He has the best minutes adjusted underlying stats of any forward and is my top ranked forward for projected points over the next 6 matches.

The West Ham home defence against top 6 sides

The West Ham home defence has played 2 top 6 teams

GWK Opposition Result xG conceded Shots Against
6 Chelsea 0-0 1.88 17
9 Spurs 0-1 1.12 10

A good defensive performance against Spurs.  Despite the result against Chelsea the underlying stats aren’t great.

Overall the West Ham defence is 13th equal in goals conceded with 18 and also 13th in xG conceded.

At home they are ranked  10th with 7 goals conceded from 6 games and ranked 7th with xG conceded.

Salah

Here’s Salah’s starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides away.

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW13

Returns in 2 of 3 games but unsurprisingly with no bonus points even with a 2 assist performance.  Good xG and volumes of shots.

Overall Salah’s Points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 6.6 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 7 of his 12 starts which is 58%. He has the best minutes adjusted underlying stats of any midfielder and is my top ranked midfielder for projected points over the next 6 matches.

The Watford home defence against top 6 sides

The Watford home defence has played 2 top 6 teams

GWK Opposition Result xG conceded Shots Against
4 Spurs 2-1 0.58 11
5 Man Utd 1-2 1.65 9

Probably not the 2 most potent of the top 6 sides at the moment.  A good performance against Spurs and shot wise good v Man Utd if not great in xG conceded.

Overall the Watford defence is 6th equal in goals conceded with 14 and also 5th in xG conceded.

At home they are ranked  11th with 8 goals conceded from 6 games and ranked 8th with xG conceded.  This has been adversely affected by the 0-4 ( loss to Bournemouth when Kabasele was sent off in the 31st minute, sorry to remind you of this Alex!)

Richarlison

Here’s Richarlison’s starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides at home

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW13

So returned in 2/4 games.  Points and xG are good although the shot volumes are pretty hit and miss

Overall Richarlison’s Points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 6.4 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 5 of his 10 starts which is 50%. He has the 13th best minutes adjusted underlying stats of midfielders and is my 14th ranked midfielder for projected points over the next 6 matches.

The Cardiff away defence against non top 6 sides

A bit of a tricky one as you’d say Everton are definitely at the upper end of non top 6 teams but I don’t think you would call them top 6 either.

GWK Opposition Result xG conceded Shots Against
1 Bournemouth 0-2 2.6 12
3 Huddersfield 0-0 0.21 5

I think Bournemouth is a pretty good comparison for Everton although obviously Huddersfield aren’t.  The xG conceded against Bournemouth was poor even if shots wise 12 isn’t particularly bad.

Overall the Cardiff defence is 19th equal in goals conceded with 25 and also 17th in xG conceded.

Away they are ranked  13th with 11 goals conceded from 5 games and ranked 14th with xG conceded.

The 3 players lineup as a comparison

Here I’ve just taken the averages and lined them up so it’s easier to compare.  I’ve then marked in green who has the best stat of the 3.

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW13

Summary





From a gametime perspective I’d be surprised if any of the 3 didn’t start.  There doesn’t appear to be any injury issues with the 3 players

The bookies odds for anytime goal scoring see Aguero as a favourite at £1.61 with Salah at  £1.83 and Richarlison at £2.10.

There’s no consistent pattern in the polls.  Recently the FFGeek poll has been pretty consistent with the top 10k managers but with me opening it up earlier and it being mentioned that maybe the order I put players and my initial incorrect Aguero odds may have distorted the voting?

No clue as yet who the FFGeek contributors will be making their captains.  I’ll fill this in later when I get more teams

The stats are interesting although the data set is small.  Arguably Richarlison has the best stats with probably only his shot volumes being low in comparison to the other 2.  I feel that Aguero having Wolves as 1 of the 2 games has a bit of a disadvantage in the stats.  I do think too much negativity has been made of Aguero’s away record generally when 4 of the  5 games have been against Wolves, Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal.

Overall though Aguero is the clear returner when on the pitch and both of Aguero and Salah have better underlying stats although it’s pretty even between Richarlison and Salah in actual returns.

Defensively Watford and West Ham at home seem much better teams than Cardiff away which is a big advantage to Richarlison.  Cardiff’s only comparable fixture losing 2-0 didn’t show them in great xG light although 12 shots against is no disaster.

 The FFGeek choice

Alot of times there is a safe option to pick for the captaincy but this is not one of those times.  There is no particular shield option here.  All are highly owned.  All on their day can score big.  I suspect both Watford and West Ham will defend very deep.  Cardiff who knows what they will do but Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City have all given Cardiff a hiding.  No one outside the top 6 though has as yet.

If I look at the stats and the opposition then that points to Richarlison.  However generally I would prefer my captains to come from the group of Aguero, Salah, Hazard and maybe Kane.

So at the moment I’m not sure.  If I was forced to pick now it would be Aguero but there will be alot of cogitating and hand-wringing before a final decision is made.

The transfer in and out polls

fantasy premier league captain tips GW13

fantasy premier league captain tips GW13

So it seems that the main Mendy transfer is for Laporte with only Digne getting anything like other numbers.

Maddison is being replaced by Richarlison and Martial.  Jimenez doesn’t look to be a direct replacement for anyone.

That’s it hope you found it useful.

See also last season’s 29k finisher and the season before 27k OR Costas Chari’s wildcard article.  Plus the most popular transfers in our bandwagons and sinking ships article, also Andrew Ferguson’s teams plans. Andrew finished 715 OR last season.

Plus our fixture ease article,  early thoughts on the FFGeek team and the 10 top FPL managers article

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12 thoughts on “fantasy premier league captain tips GW13 – plus transfer poll results”

  1. Great analysis Geek, it’s the toughest call so far this season, I am still don’t have a clue who to choose between the 3 options..

  2. Minutes risk for Aguero and Richarlison not yet proven to be a bug gun means The Ming is captaining Salah… no doubt that will ensure he will score a couple of incorrectly ruled offside goals

  3. Salah is the one of the 3 I am definitely not doing. It’s between Richarlison and Aguero. Hard to decide. Richarlison has the plum home fixture but Aguero is Aguero .

  4. Wow, seems like everyone is faced with the same dilemma. Ian S, you sound very certain about Salah. Interesting as I’m the one he’s leaning towards.

    Merv, you have some cojones, I’ll give you that! Hope that punt works out for you man.

    I need to play two and bench two out of Doherty, Fraser, Paterson and Arno.

    Any pearls of wisdom? Got Arno and Fraser on the bench at the mo. Is this madness?

  5. I would bench Arnie and Paterson… and regarding Salah, I’m not saying he wont return. He is just my least favourite pick of the 3… still undecided between Rich and Kun. I was all set for Rich earlier in the week but now I am leaning towards Kun. I am currently in about 15k position so dont see a need to gamble.

  6. Itchieritchie: Finally I didnt Triple him, got a goal with no cleansheet (didn’t expect CS from the Cottagers though)… 7 decent points though (I have no Sterling or Mitro, so fair choice)

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