FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN TIPS GW13


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Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW13 article where we look at various ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we can find and the FFGeek choice. We also continue our new schedule showing the best player in various measures to see what that throws up

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN TIPS GW13

THE FIXTURES

fpl-gw13fixtures

The bookies see 4 teams as strong favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested

Liverpool at £1.18

Man City at £1.30

Arsenal £1.40

Man Utd £1.50

THE BOOKIES ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.60 – Aguero

£1.6 – Firmino

£1.73 – Mane

£1.85 – Giroud

£1.91 – Coutinho, Sanchez

£1.95 – Ibrahimovic

£2.00 – Costa

£2.15 – Yaya Toure

£2.25 – De Bruyne

£2.40 – Walcott

£2.50 – Mata, Austin, Deeney, Benteke, Hazard

THE FPL ADVICE POLLS.

The problem witrh the advice polls is the late Aguero injury flag.  A high percentage of votes would have been pre this

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

fpl-gw13captainpollresult

So a slight margin for Aguero though.  Discounting him as an injury risk then it becomes between Firmino and Coutinho

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls:

fpl-gw13captainpollsummary

It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and probably replicates the top 10k FPL managers more than any other site

Taking out Aguero, Coutinho is marginally ahead of Firmino

TOP 10 FPL MANAGERS

No one showing himself and alot of indecision betweEn Coutinho and Firmino on twitter etc

USING VARIOUS MEASURES

I thought I would put together a table of various measures to see what that showed. You can see more detail of the measures and definitions in the various “ones to watch” articles for

Midfielders

Forwards

I’ve removed Aguero as a an option due to the gametime injury risk

The schedule works by taking the top 2 players in the various categories and then adding together how many times they appear with no differentiation between 1st and 2nd. In the event of a tie the player with the most times in the first category gets the vote. The player with the best goal scoring odds in that team gets the nod in the schedule.

Here’s how to look at it

The first 4 categories focus on player form to date

The next 2 categories focus on the opposition defence with the player with the best bookies goal scoring odds getting the nod

The last 2 categories are views on who is the best captain for the gameweek either through the bookies goalscoring odds or the Polls

So the first 4 are facts about whats happened the 2nd 4 are based on opinion of what might happen

Last week it went for Aguero which produced 2 points unfortunately.

fpl-gw13captainmetrics

So it shows Firmino 3 times and Hazard, Costa and Coutinho twice

So Firmino from this methodology

I’m going to continue road testing this to see how the results pan out

THE FFGEEK CHOICE

I’m going for Coutino.  He has a slight edge in the polls and higher ownership.  So from a defensive point of view getting it wrong would be worse for not captaining Coutinho.  He also has set pieces which could be helpful

I normally put a vice captain from a different team so if for some reason the game is called off (especially in winter) then you have another option.  No real standout here though so taking the risk.


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