fantasy premier league captain tips GW15 – plus transfer poll results


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Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW15 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW15 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW15

The Bookies Team win odds

Watford v Man City – £1.27 Aguero, Sterling, Silva D and Sane

Burnley v Liverpool –  £1.27 Salah, Mane and Firmino

Spurs v Southampton – £1.35 – Kane, Alli, Son, Eriksen

The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.25 for £1 invested as of Tuesday morning. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential



£1.57 – Kane

£1.70 – Aguero

£1.75 – Salah

£1.85 – Jesus

£1.95 – Arnautovic

£2.00 – Mitrovic

£2.05 – Sterling, Vardy

£2.15 – Wilson

£2.20 – Chicharito

£2.25 – Lacazette

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll:

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW15

You can see the full FFGeek captain poll with this link

Here’s a summary of the now 5 captain polls:

Site 1% FFGeek% Site 2% Site 3% Site 4%
Kane 38 35 49 25 47
Salah 15 20 23 10 27
Sterling 9 12 18 10 17
Arnautovic 7 6 n/a 2 n/a

Btw, the FFGeek poll asks who will you captain as does site 2 although just gives you a few options. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 3 and 4 are silent on the question.

The FFGeek contributors

Here’s what I’ve got so far.

Contributor Captain
Joseph Crilley Kane
Rob Reid Kane
Alex Ball Kane
Keith Spencer Salah
Scott Hargadon Kane
FPL Word
Mikael D Kane
Jordan Sadler Salah
Costas Chari
Sergio Torija Kane
Yaniv Salomon Kane
Mikael H
Stephen Troop
Andrew Ferguson TBC
Robert Cosgrove Kane
Prakhar Patel Kane
Joe Armiger

see the part 1 contributors article here

Some stats

This week I’m looking at the 2 poll leaders in Kane and Salah

Gametime

So Kane you would think starts because of nothing more than he usually does and he has no direct replacement.  Son would have to play a false 9 type position.

Salah is a different kettle of fish with Shaqiri able to come in as a replacement in effect.  The fact that Mane seems to be a doubt may actually avoid any rest situation

At this time of the season though nothing is certain so think about your vice captain

Kane’s stats

Here’s Kane’s starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides at home.  Surprisingly there’s only 2

fantasy premier league captain tips GW15

Returns in 1/2 games. Shot volumes are good which is a Kane trademark. Hard to make an assessment on 2 games although they are 2 of the easier fixtures.

Overall Kanes points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 5.3 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 8 of his 14 starts which is 57%. Going into GW14 he had the 5th best minutes adjusted underlying stats of any forward.

The Southampton away defence against top 6 sides

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW15

Overall the Southampton defence is 17th in goals conceded with 26 and also 14th in xG conceded.

Away they are ranked 18th with 16 goals conceded from 7 games and ranked 17th with xG conceded.

Salah

Here’s Salah’s starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides away.

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW15

Returns in 3 of 4 games but no bonus anywhere even with 2 assists. The xG and xA are very good as are the shot volumes and key pass volumes.

Overall Salah’s points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 6.5 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 8 of his 14 starts which is 57%. Going into GW14 he had the best minutes adjusted underlying stats of any midfielder.

The Burnley home defence

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW15

Overall the Burnley defence is 19th in goals conceded with 29 and also 20th in xG conceded.

Away they are ranked 17th with 12 goals conceded from 6 games and ranked 18th with xG conceded.

The 2 players lineup as a comparison

Here I’ve just taken the averages and lined them up so it’s easier to compare. I’ve then marked in green who has the best stat of the 2.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW15

Summary





From a gametime perspective Kane is probably the safest just because it’s rare for Kane not to play in the premier league.  Salah is rotatable but the Mane injury doubt may make him safer.

The bookies odds for anytime goal scoring see Kane as a favourite at £1.57 with Salah at £1.75.

The polls favour Kane by around 40% to 25% over Salah

The FFGeek contributors strongly seem to favour Kane so far.

The stats overall are pretty even but probably favour Kane from a goalscoring underlying stats point of view and he does also have penalties.

However Burnleys defensive stats are atrocious although Southampton’s aren’t anything to write home about.

The FFGeek choice

It’s rare that I go against the polls but I am tempted to go with Salah (assuming I get Kane even) given the state of the Burnley defence at the moment and the fact that apart from penalties there isn’t a huge amount of stats difference between them.  I will decide in my team article which will be late on Tuesday

The transfer in and out polls

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW15

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW15

Looks like the Aguero to Kane/ Aubameyang transfer is in full swing and to a lesser extent the Hazard to Sterling.

That’s it hope you found it useful.

See our imaginary wildcard article for player suggestions and  what last seasons 715 OR finisher Andrew Ferguson is thinking of for GW15 and also how the 10 top FPL managers I follow lined up for GW14

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