Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW16 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.
fantasy premier league captain tips GW16 – plus transfer poll results
The Bookies Team win odds
Arsenal v Huddersfield – £1.25 Aubameyang and Lacazette
Bournemouth v Liverpool – £1.57 Salah, Mane and Firmino
Man Utd v Fulham – £1.32 – Martial if fit
The Bookies player odds
Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.30 for £1 invested as of Friday morning. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential
£1.73 – Lacazette and Aubameyang
£1.83 – Kane
£1.91 – Salah
£1.95 – Lukaku, Aguero
£2.10 – Martial
£2.25 – Rashford
£2.30 – Jesus, Richarlison
The FPL advice site Polls
Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:
You can see the full FFGeek captain poll with this link
Here’s a summary of the now 5 captain polls:
|Site 1%||FFGeek%||Site 2%||Site 3%||Site 4%|
Btw, the FFGeek poll asks who will you captain as does site 2 although just gives you a few options. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 3 and 4 are silent on the question.
The FFGeek contributors
Here’s the schedule
This week I’m looking at the 2 poll leaders in Kane and Aubameyang
So Kane you would think starts because of nothing more than he usually does and he has no direct replacement. Son would have to play a false 9 type position.
Aubameyang is a more uncertain one where there are 2 elements. Firstly there is the question of whether he starts or not. He has started the last 6 playing 90 minutes in the last 4 and has only been sub in 2 games in GW8 and GW9.
However this comes to the 2nd element. It’s only in the last 3 games that he has played CF and before that he’s pretty much played AML. Unsurprisingly there is a big difference in stats this season between the 2 positions. Until the last 3 Lacazette played CF but that changed. You would think if Lacazette does return to CF then Aubameyang will start as an AML although the 3-4-2-1 system in the last 2 is different than the 4-2-3-1 Emery has played up to the last 2 games.
The upshot is that there is not only some starting risk but positional risk. It’s just life under Unai Emery for FPL managers.
Here’s Kane’s starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides away.
Returns in 4/7 games which is 57%. The Brighton and Huddersfield xG included 0.76 in penalties.
Overall Kanes points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 5.7 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 9 of his 15 starts which is 60%.
The Leicester home defence against top 6 sides
Overall the Leicester defence is 6th equal in goals conceded with 18 and also 5th in xG conceded.
At home they are ranked 3rd with 6 goals conceded from 7 games and ranked 3rd with xG conceded.
The Leicester defence also seems like Maguire and Evans will be fit.
I’m not going split the stats between Aubamenyang the AML and Aubameyang the CF as who knows which one will, hopefully, start. 3 out of 4 starts were as an AML.
Here’s Aubameyangs starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides at home.
Returns in 2 of 5 games. The xG and xA are pretty mixed and the shot volumes and key pass volumes are shockingly poor.
Overall Aubameyangs points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 7.5 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 6 of his 13 starts which is 46%.
The difference in his overall stats as CF and AML are stark.
CF: xG90 0.62, xA90 0.15 Sh90 3.07 KP 1.70
AML: xG90 0.32 xA90 0.15 Sh90 1.79 KP 0.49
The Huddersfield away defence against top 6 sides.
Overall the Huddersfield defence is 16th in goals conceded with 26 and also 11th in xG conceded.
Away they are ranked 17th with 16 goals conceded from 7 games and ranked 10th in xG conceded.
They should have a full defence although they will be missing Billing who’s an important CDM.
The 2 players lineup as a comparison
Here I’ve just taken the averages and lined them up so it’s easier to compare. I’ve then marked in green who has the best stat of the 2.
From a gametime perspective Kane is the safest just because it’s rare for Kane not to play in the premier league. Anything could happen with Aubameyang. He could not start or he could start as a AML or as a CF. Aubameyang as an AML is pretty much only half as good as compared to Auabemayang as a CF. Both should have penalty duties.
The bookies odds for anytime goal scoring see Aubameyang as a favourite at £1.73 with Kane not far behind at £1.83.
The polls favour Aubameyang by around 45% to 25% over Kane. Interestingly the FFGeek poll is much closer though.
The FFGeek contributors need to be added to the article.
The stats paint a fairly confused picture. Overall when on the pitch Aubameyang has the better returns although helped by his 2 goal sub appearances. Overall underlying stats favour Kane but helped by his 2 penalties.
When you focus on the similar games though Kane fares better even though its not particularly impressive but from Aubameyang it’s pretty poor, particularly shot volumes.
Defensively though the teams they are facing are worlds apart. Leicesters overall defence and home defence is very good. Huddersfield aren’t as bad as painted but they aren’t anywhere near as good as Leicester and took a 6-1 battering from Man City.
The FFGeek choice
This should be straight forward but risks about Aubameyang’s gametime and position plus some underwhelming performances against similar opposition don’t help. Kane’s only issue is that the Leicester defence is one of the better ones in the league.
Huddersfield’s isn’t as bad as painted but it’s hard not to see goals from Arsenal in the fixture.
This is why I’m likely to go Aubameyang.
The transfer in and out polls
Looks like alot of Arnautovic to Aubameyang going on.
That’s it hope you found it useful.
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