fantasy premier league captain tips GW17 – plus transfer poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW17 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW17 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

Spurs v Burnley – £1.17 – Kane, Alli, Eriksen and Son

Man City – £1.20 Sterling, Sane and Jesus

Brighton v Chelsea – £1.47 Hazard

Liverpool v Man Utd – £1.57 Salah, Mane and Firmino

Watford v Cardiff – £1.60 – ?

The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.30 for £1 invested as of Friday morning. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential

£1.40 – Kane

£1.61 – Aguero

£1.73 – Jesus

£1.80 – Salah

£1.83 – Sterling

£1.85 – Moura

£1.95 – Lacazette, Aubameyang

£2.05 – Son HM, Hazard

£2.10 – Sane, Mitrovic

£2.25 – Chicharito

£2.30 – Dele Alli

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:

You can see the full FFGeek captain poll with this link

Here’s a summary of the now 5 captain polls:

Btw, the FFGeek poll asks who will you captain as does site 2 although just gives you a few options. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 3 and 4 are silent on the question.

The FFGeek contributors

Here’s the schedule so far

Some stats

This week I’m looking at Kane and Aubameyang

Gametime

So Kane starting every PL game ended last week surprisingly in a tough game v Leicester and presumably for the midweek UCL match.  Next week is the EFL Cup quarters which you’d normally assume as the rest proposition but it is away to Arsenal.  Impossible to say then he will definitely play

Aubameyang didn’t get any minutes midweek so I’d be surprised if he didn’t start but Emery is hardly the most predictable fellow.

Kane’s stats

Here’s Kane’s starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides at home.

Returns in 2/3 games which is 67%.

Overall Kanes points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 5.7 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 9 of his 15 starts which is 60%.

The Burnley away defence against top 6 sides

Overall the Burnley defence is 19th equal in goals conceded with 32 and also 19th in xG conceded.

Away they are ranked 18th equal with 17 goals conceded from 8 games and ranked 19th with xG conceded.

They seem to have a reasonably fully fit defence for what that’s worth

Aubameyang

I’m not going split the stats between Aubamenyang the AML and Aubameyang the CF as who knows which one will, hopefully, start. 3 out of 4 starts were as an AML.

Here’s Aubameyangs starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides away.

Returns in 5 of 5 games. The xG and xA are pretty ordinary and the shot volumes and key pass volumes are poor too.  However the situation is confused by only 1 game being as a CF.  That 1 game was far more productive

Overall Aubameyangs points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 7.3 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 7 of his 14 starts which is 50%.

The difference in his overall stats as CF and AML are stark.  The CF stats are very good.

CF: xG90 0.64, xA90 0.22 Sh90 3.2 KP 1.6

AML: xG90 0.32 xA90 0.15 Sh90 1.79 KP 0.49

The Southampton home defence against top 6 sides.

Overall the Southampton defence is 18th in goals conceded with 30 and also 15th in xG conceded.

Away they are ranked 10th with 10 goals conceded from 7 games and ranked 7th in xG conceded.

Bertrand as I write this are doubts as is Jack Stephens which won’t help the defence.  They have a new manager so that effect is unknown at the moment.

The 2 players lineup as a comparison

Here I’ve just taken the averages and lined them up so it’s easier to compare. I’ve then marked in green who has the best stat of the 2.

Summary

So from a gametime perspective Kane is no longer the totally rotation proof starter he once was in the pl.  It would still be a surprise to see him benched after being benched for the first time this season last week.

Aubameyang didn’t play any minutes in midweek so it seems likely he will start v Southampton

Both have penalty duties.

The bookies odds for anytime goal scoring see Kane as an favourite at £1.40 with Aubameyang way behind at £1.95.

The polls favour Aubameyang by around 45% to 25% over Kane. Interestingly the FFGeek poll is much closer though.

The FFGeek contributors so far have all gone for Kane

The stats paint a fairly inconclusive picture.  Aubameyang has the better returns against non top 6 sides in the comparison but on the back of some pretty ordinary underlying stats.  That position is particularly confused as only 1 of the games was as a CF where you think he would play v Southampton.  Kanes numbers are good and the one game with Aubameyang as a CF was also good.

Defensively though Burnley seem far worse than Southampton who are terrible away but middle of the road at home.  How the new manager will affect Southamtom has yet to be seen although it’s hard to imagine he could be a worse defensive manager than Hughes.

The FFGeek choice

Kane for me undoubtedly given the polls and the opposition.

The transfer in and out polls

Looks like most people are carrying over the free but Chicharito in for Wilson and Felipe Anderson in for Silva are popular transfers.

That’s it hope you found it useful.

Read our  fixture ease article  for player suggestions and our bandwagons and sinking ships article plus our analysing 10 top FPL managers article

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