fantasy premier league captain tips GW19 – plus transfer poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW19 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW19 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

Leicester v Man City – £1.32 Sterling and Sane

Liverpool v Newcastle £1.14 – Salah, Mane Firmino

Man Utd v Huddersfield – £1.25 Martial, Pogba

Spurs vs Bournemouth – £1.32 Kane, Son

The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.30 for £1 invested as of Boxing day morning. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential

£1.53 – Kane

£1.55 – Salah

£1.83 – Jesus, Aguero

£1.95 – Aubameyang, Lukaku, Firmino

£2.00 – Lacazette, Hazard

£2.05 – Ings

£2.10 – Mane

£2.15 – Sterling

£2.20 – Martial, Rashford

£2.30 – Sane, Mahrez

£2.37 – Son, Moura, Zaha

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:

You can see the full FFGeek captain poll and transfer polls with this link

A complete lack of captain polls around at the moment so only the Geek poll and site 1 and another poll.

Btw, the FFGeek poll and site 2 asks who will you captain. Site 1 asks for the best captain and was put out before the EFL cup matches.

The FFGeek contributors

Here’s the schedule pretty much done

Some stats

This week I’m looking at Kane and Salah

Gametime

It’s easy to dismiss any gametime worries with Kane as he is probably less rotated than most of the premium players.  However Son could deputise for him so there’s always the potential.  He does have Cardiff on New Years day as a rotation possibility but he’s likely to be rested in the FA Cup 3rd round as they are away to Tranmere which would give him close to 2 weeks off.

Salah is a bit different in that he has Arsenal home and Man City away on the 29th and 3rd respectively.  Having just played 90 minutes against Wolves if he’s going to be benched than this is the game to do it.

Kane’s stats

Here’s Kanes starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides at home.

Considering the opposition it’s ok but you’d be looking for more.

Returns in 3/4 games, 1 double figure score and backed up by pretty good underlying stats.

Overall  points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 6.2 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 11 of his 17 starts which is 65%.

The Bournemouth away defence against top 6 sides

So not great but I’ve seen worse

Overall the Bournemouth defence is 13th equal in goals conceded with 28 and also 10th in xG conceded.

Away they are ranked 11th equal with 14 goals conceded from 8 games and ranked 10th with xG conceded.

Defensively only Smith is injured.

Salah

Here’s his starts against non top 6 sides at home:

So returns in 5/6 games. 1 double figure scores and good underlying stats in pretty much each game.  The elephant in the room though is he only got bonus points in 1 of the 5 returning games and that was only when he got more than 1 return.

Overall Salah’s points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 7.6 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 10 of his 17 starts which is 59%.

The Newcastle away defence against top 6 sides

So not a great record but again I’ve seen worse

Overall the Newcastle defence is 7th equal in goals conceded with 22.  However they are 15th in xG conceded.

Away they are ranked 4th equal with 7 goals conceded from 8 games and ranked 8th with xG conceded.

They could be without  Clark but I’m not sure how big a deal that is.  The GK seems the key

 The 2 players lined up as a comparison

Here I’ve just taken the averages and lined them up so it’s easier to compare. I’ve then marked in green who has the best stat of the 3.

Summary

So gametime wise Kane looks the safest given that he has options for rest at Cardiff and probable FA Cup rest.  Salah has Arsenal and Man City next so if he is going to be rested it’s in this game.  He was benched in GW15.  Kane has pens.  Salah should have pens if Milner is off the pitch.

The bookies odds for anytime goal scoring see them very equal with Kane £1.53 ATGS and Salah £1.55.

The polls are very close.

The FFGeek contributors  pretty much have gone for Kane

The stats  favour Salah in returns and underlying stats.  Salah’s achilles heel is his inability to get bonus.  Kane has 106 points total and 15 bonus points.  Salah has 125 points total and 6 bonus points

Overall the defences have been similar against top 6 defences although overall  the Newcastle defence is surprisingly ok.  The mindset is totally different with Newcastle a much more defensive side than Bournemouth.

The FFGeek choice

At the moment I don’t have Salah but even if I did or do get him Kane will be my captain.  That was decided before I even started this article.  Eddie Howe has done me over twice in the past.  Once when Lukaku scored 4 goals against his team when he played for Everton and again when I sold Salah recently.  There is no way I’m letting it happen a third time so this is an emotional decision.

I think my worry of Salah not starting is also a concern if I was thinking rationally but if I believed he was starting then I think I would possibily choose him.  It is a coin toss though.

However for me Kane will be my captain irrespective of what I do regarding Salah

The transfer in and out polls

That’s it.  Hope you found it helpful

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