fantasy premier league captain tips GW27 – plus transfer poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW27 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW27 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

Arsenal v Southampton £1.50 – Aubameyang, Lacazette

Burnley v Spurs  £1.70- Son, Eriksen

Newcastle v Huddersfield £1.80 – Rondon

West Ham v Fulham – £1.91 Anderson, Arnautovic

The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.30 for £1 invested as of Friday morning. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential

£1.80 – Aubameyang

£1.91 – Kane

£1.95 – Arnautovic, Son HM, Lacazette

£2.00 – Chicharito

£2.10 – Rondon

£2.20 – Salah, Vardy

£2.25 – Llorente

£2.30 – Mitrovic, Anderson

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:

You can see the full FFGeek captain poll and transfer polls with this link

Btw, the FFGeek poll and site 2 asks who will you captain. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 3 is silent

FFGeek contributor captain picks

Here’s the link to the FFGeek contributors teams article 1 and contributors teams article 2

Some stats

So I’m going to look at Aubameyang’s and Son’s stats

Gametime

Impossible to believe Son won’t start v Burnley.  Aubameyang is a bit trickier.  He played the full 90 vs Bate.  Arsenal play Southampton on Sunday, Bournemouth on Wednesday and Spurs on the following Sunday and then the round of 16 Europa League match on the Thursday after that.  I guess it’s possible he could be on the bench somewhere in that lot.

Aubameyang

Here’s Aubameyang’s stats at home against non top 6 sides

So returns in 6 of 9 games and a healthy points per game average backed up by great xG/xA numbers. He doesn’t have great shot volumes but I’ve seen his shot map and he tends to do his work around the 6 yard box.  Sort of Sterling like.

In my recent last 10 gameweek form tables Aubameyang is 3rd for forwards on projected FPL points for xG/xA

The Southampton away defence against top 6 sides

So these stats are pretty bad.  The difficult aspect though is that only the Chelsea game was with Hasenhuttl in charge.  At home under him they beat Arsenal 3-2 and lost 1-3 to Man City but difficult to extrapolate that to away games.

So overall the Southampton defence has conceded 15 goals from 11 games since Hasenhuttl took charge and is ranked 8th equal on that basis. In xG conceded over that time they are they are ranked 11th.

Away from home it’s a bit hard to take much from as they have only played 5 games but it’s impressive. They have conceded 4 goals from 5 away games since he started which is 3rd equal ranking. On xG conceded over that period away they are 5th.

In my recent last 10 gameweek form tables they are 10th on xG conceded.

Son HM

Here’s Son’s starts against non top 6 sides away

So returns in 4 of 8 games . Overall the stats look good although they are heavily weighted towards recent matches.

In my recent last 10 gameweek form tables Son is 6th for midfielders on projected FPL points for xG/xA

The Burnley defence at home against top 6 sides

So those stats couldn’t be much worse but Burnley have improved since Heaton came into the team and non eof those games are in that period.

So overall the Burnley defence has conceded 47 goals from 26 games and is ranked 16th on that basis. In xG conceded they are ranked 19th.

At home they have conceded 22 from 12 games and are 17th ranked on that basis. On xG conceded they are 17th.

In my recent last 10 gameweek form tables they are 8th on xG conceded.

Comparison tables

Here we put the 2 captain candidates averages together to compare as well as the defences

Summary

Gametime wise I think there’s little risk that Son won’t start.  Probably more for Aubameyang but apart from illness in GW26 he’s started every game since GW11 and pretty much plays 90 minutes every time.

Aubameyang has penalty duties. Son doesn’t.

The bookies odds favour Aubameyang at £1.80 to Son 1.95 ATGS.

The polls are close with Aubameyang averaging about 36% to Son 31%

The contributors are 3 to Aubameyang and 2 to Son at the moment.

The stats are pretty mixed.  Auabemayang has better goal threat underlying stats is the standout.

The defences are hard to compare as they have both improved since Hasenhuttl took over and since Dyche put Heaton in goal so season long starts are hard to gauge.  Recent form over the last 10 sees them relatively even.

The FFGeek choice

I don’t have Aubameyang but if I did he would probably edge it for me.  Assuming I don’t get him and I’m still deciding, then I will probably go for Son.

The transfer in and out polls and the GW27 hits and players with fixtures polls

See my most recent article on the blanks and doubles as background.  Also you can see last seasons 715 OR finisher Andrew Ferguson’s plans

Also See underlying stats on players from GW26 the early FFGeek team article and the 10 top FPL managers we follow.  There’s also our player form article.

Follow FFGeek on twitter and facebook and instagram for article updates and news

Geek League links and details

fantasy premier league 

Sky Sports fantasy football

Enter PIN: 8367679

Sun Dream Team

League PIN is SGDKX9Y3