Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW28 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice.
fantasy premier league captain tips GW28
The Bookies Team win odds
Arsenal v Bournemouth £1.42 – Aubameyang, Lacazette
Liverpool v Watford £1.27 – Salah, Mane
Man City v West Ham – £1.14 – Aguero, Sterling
The Bookies player odds
Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.37 for £1 invested as of Tuesday morning. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential
£1.55 – Aguero
£1.61 – Jesus
£1.73 – Salah
£1.75 – Aubameyang
£1.80 – Sterling
£1.85 – Lacazette, Ings
£1.95 – Mane
£2.20 – Vardy, Sane and Mahrez
£2.25 – Rondon, Firmino and Higuain
£2.37 – Richarlison, Jimenez and Kane
The FPL advice site Polls
No FFGeek poll today due to the technical problems I’m having with the site. Apologies for that and the site issues generally. Trying to resolve them but it’s not easy.
|Site 1 %||Site 2%||Site 3%|
Site 1 asks for the best captain, site 2 who will be your captain and site 3 is silent
FFGeek contributor captain picks
Here’s the link to the FFGeek contributors teams article 1. I’ll update again when I have more contributors teams
So I’m going to look at Aubameyang’s and Salah’s and Aguero stats
After Aubameyang was benched vs Southampton it’s hard to see the same thing happening in GW28. However it’s Spurs on the weekend and then Europa League next week where Lacazette is suspended so I guess it’s not totally out of the question.
Aguero played all 120 minutes in the EFL final on Sunday but with Jesus looking injured and Sterling having played 120 as well it’s hard to see who could play the CF position. Bournemouth are next followed by Schalke. If Pep thought that Jesus would be fit by then Jesus could slot in for those games and rest Aguero then. Pep is hard to predict though.
Salah seems the most predictable to play. Klopp doesn’t have the alternatives that Arsenal and Man City have and it seems that Firmino is ruled out which makes it even less likely that Salah could be rested
Here’s Aubameyang’s stats at home against non top 6 sides. I’ve only included starts apart from the Leicester game.
So returns in 6 of 9 games and a healthy points per game average backed up by great xG/xA numbers. He doesn’t have great shot volumes but I’ve seen his shot map and he tends to do his work around the 6 yard box.
The Bournemouth away defence against top 6 sides
So stats aren’t great that’s for sure. The goals conceded average is pretty high and the xG against is poor although shot volumes strangely aren’t too bad.
Here’s Aguero’s starts only at home against non top 6 sides. Injuries and benchings have meant few games
So returns in 6 of 6 games. The stats and underlying stats are mind boggling. The only question is minutes when he does start.
The West Ham defence away against top 6 sides
So the stats are pretty bad although they were at the very start of the season.
Here’s Salah’s starts at home against non top 6 sides
So returns in 8 of the 10 games and fantastic underlying stats. He does seem better as a CF than a right sided forward. Also he’s still yet to get a bonus point in these games unless he returns twice.
The Watford defence away to top 6 sides
Good stats these, even if only 2 games and none against Liverpool or Man City.
Here we put the 2 captain candidates averages together to compare as well as the defences
So Aguero bossing it really.
Defences against top 6 sides away comparison
So Watford look the strongest with Bournemouth and West Ham evenish although West Ham is just 2 games at the start of the season
Overall defence comparison
So Watford looking the best overall defence although Fosters heroics have been the reason for the recent plaudits.
Game time wise I feel Salah is fairly certain to start with Firmino looking injured. Aubameyang being benched on Sunday should see him start although Spurs on the weekend and Europa League next week with Lacazette suspended could make him a slight risk given the unpredictable manager.
Aguero played 120 mins in the EFL final and that in itself makes him a risk. However with Jesus looking injured it does make an alternative move into the false 9 area if he is to rest Aguero.
The bookies odds favour Aguero at £1.55 to Salah £1.73 and Aubameyang 1.75 ATGS.
The polls see Salah averaging 37%, Aguero 29% and Aubameyang 16%
The contributors so far look to be going with Salah
Aguero looks to have the best attacking stats with Aubameyang and Salah not too different. Bournemouth looks the worst defence against top 6 sides and overall. West Hams are hard to judge being from GW1 and 3 re top 6 sides away.
The FFGeek choice
So often with this article the more stats the less clear the picture is. I guess in simple terms if you want the best attacking record it’s Aguero. If you want the worst defence it’s Aubameyang v Bournemouth. If you want gametime security it’s probably Salah although I’d be surprised if Aubameyang didn’t start.
For me I’ll probably go Salah for gametime and because he’s the leader in the polls. He’s probably the shield option for your rank with Aguero and Aubemyang being the sword.
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