fantasy premier league captain tips GW29 – analysing options

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW29 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW29 – analysing options

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

Bournemouth v Man City – £1.20 Sterling

Man Utd v Southampton – £1.42 Pogba

Wolves v Cardiff – £1.50 Jimenez

Fulham v Chelsea – £1.50 – Hazard, Higuain

Everton v Liverpool £1.57 – Salah, Mane

The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.37 for £1 invested as of Friday morning. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential

£1.61 – Aguero

£1.65 – Jesus

£1.83 – Sterling

£1.85 – Kane

£1.91 – Hazard, Higuain

£1.95 – Son HM, Murray

£2.00 – Jimenez, Rashford, Pogba, Lukaku, Salah

£2.10 – Arnautovic

£2.15 – Barnes, Vardy

£2.20 – Martial

£2.25 – Aubameyang, Sane, Rondon, Mane

£2.30 – Chicharito

£2.37 – Jota, Sanchez, Pedro

The FPL advice site Polls

With the new hosting company I decided not to risk a poll as it can cause some issues for the website.

Site 1 asks for the best captain, site 2 and 3 who will be your captain and site 4 is silent

FFGeek contributor captain picks

Here’s the link to the FFGeek contributors teams article 1. I’ll update again when I have more contributors teams

So that’s 3 for Sterling, 4 for Pogba, 3 for Hazard and 1 each for Aguero and Rashford.

Some stats

Aguero, Pogba and Hazard’s stats

Gametime

Pep described Aguero as exhausted in the last 15 minutes of the West Ham game as he’s been picking up the slack with Jesus injured recently.  With Jesus now fit there has to be some risk Aguero will be on the bench.

With Pogba suspended vs PSG and him practically playing every game 90 minutes it’s hard to see him being rested v Southampton

Hazard surprisingly went off after 61 minutes v Spurs although there has been no mention of any injury.  Sarri has said he will make 3 or 4 changes so I guess it could theoretically include Hazard but I would be very surprised.

Aguero

Here’s Aguero’s away stats against non top 6 sides:

So returns in 5 of 8 matches doesn’t sound too bad but the points per match and the underlying stats just aren’t Aguero at all.

The Bournemouth home defence against top 6 sides

So stats aren’t too bad although Liverpool really put them to the sword.

Pogba

Here’s Pogba’s starts at home against non top 6 sides since Solskjaer took over

Hard to imagine how the stats could be much better although to be fair there are 2 penalties within that lot

The Southampton defence away against top 6 sides

So stats aren’t too bad actually

Hazard

Here’s Hazard’s starts away against non top 6 sides

So returns in 5 from 8 games and a pretty healthy points average sounds good but those last 2 games are not good in terms of underlying stats even though the volumes are ok.

The Fulham home defence against to top 6 sides

So although the goal tally is pretty eye watering, the underlying numbers aren’t so bad.  However a pretty hopeless goalkeeper, which they have, can really undo ok numbers.

Comparison tables

Here we put the 2 captain candidates averages from above together to compare as well as the defences

So Pogba bossing every category

Defences against top 6 sides away comparison

So pretty even apart from Fulhams goals per game.

Summary

So gametime wise Aguero has to be some sort of risk even the exhausted comment by Pep and the return to fitness of Jesus.  I wouldn’t of thought Hazard was although Sarri has sign posted changing 3 or 4 players.  Pogba looks safe considering he’s suspended for the midweek PSG match and he’s so important

All 3 players have penalty duties.

The bookies odds favour Aguero at £1.61 to Hazard £1.91 and Pogba 2.00 ATGS.

The polls see Pogba and Aguero quite close around 30% with Hazard way back around 10%.  It’s possible the votes over estimate what will happen with Aguero as those votes before today’s press conference may have swayed away from Aguero on the Jesus news

The contributors are spread around at the moment.  3 for Sterling, 4 for Pogba, 3 for Hazard and 1 each for Aguero and Rashford.

Stats wise Pogba bosses it if only on 4 games and with 2 penalties in there to boost them.  Aguero is quite disappointing and Hazard is good except for the last 2 games which are poor.

The defences are surprisingly even although Fulham concede goals above their underlying stats due to poor goalkeeping in some respects.  There’s no doubt overall Fulham have been terrible as a defence and while Bournemouth have too that’s mainly been away.

The FFGeek choice

So Pogba seems to be the best choice purely on the stats above even though it is 4 games.  Aguero has to be too much of a gametime risk for me and his stats away are pretty ordinary on a decent sample size.  Hazard’s are good although the last 2 are very poor.

If I had Pogba I would choose him.  I have been thinking about Pogba as I write this article but in his absence I would probably go Hazard rather than Aguero because Aguero is just too much starting risk even if Sarri has signalled some changes himself for Fulham.

Geek later note:  You may have seen I transferred in Pogba and he’s now my captain in the FFGeek team selection article

Good luck whoever you choose.

See also our 10 top FPL managers article and the early FFGeek team thoughts plus Rob Reid’s GW29 player picks

There’s also last season’s OR finisher of 715 Andrew Ferguson’s team

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