fantasy premier league captain tips GW30 – plus transfer poll results


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Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW30 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW30 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

 fantasy premier league captain tips GW30

The Bookies Team win odds

Man City v Watford £1.14 – Aguero, Sterling

Liverpool v Burnley £1.15 – Salah, Mane

Chelsea v Wolves £1.55 – Hazard, Higuain

Leicester v Fulham £1.57 – Vardy



The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.40 for £1 invested as of Friday afternoon. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential

£1.53 – Aguero

£1.61 – Salah

£1.65 – Vardy

£1.70 – Jesus, Mane

£1.80 – Sterling

£1.91 – Kane

£1.95 – Aubameyang

£2.05 – Son HM, Firmino, Hazard, Sane, Mahrez, Higuain

£2.10 – Arnautovic

£2.25 – Rondon, Lacazette, Wilson, Chicharito

£2.30 – Pedro

£2.40 – Batshuayi, Mitrovic, Zaha, Lukaku

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:

fantasy premier league captain tips GW30

You can see the full FFGeek captain poll and transfer polls with this link

Site 1 %FFGeek %Site 2%Site 3 %Site 4%
Aguero2942363532
Salah2739424816
Sterling10816n/a12
Vardy54n/an/a3

Btw, the FFGeek poll and site 2 and 3 asks who will you captain. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 4 is silent

FFGeek contributor captain picks

Here’s the link to the FFGeek contributors teams article 1  

ContributorCaptain
Joseph CrilleySterling
Rob ReidAguero
Alex BallAguero
Keith SpencerVardy
FPL WordAguero
Mikael DSalah
Jordan SadlerSterling
Costas ChariSalah
Sergio TorijaSalah
Yaniv SalomonSalah
Mikael HAguero
Stephen Troop
Andrew FergusonSterling
Robert CosgroveSalah
Prakhar Patel

So Salah 5, Aguero 4, Sterling 3 and Vardy 1

Some stats

So I’m going to look at Aguero and Salah’s stats

Gametime

It’s always difficult to predict what will happen with Aguero  and Man City generally.  After this game there is the midweek home Schalke UCL game where you would think they are home and dry after winning the first leg away.  Then on the weekend is the Swansea away FA Cup quarter final.  A 2 week international break follows that.  For me there is every chance he starts.

Salah has a tough game at Bayern midweek and then Fulham away at the weekend.  Given they are not in the FA Cup and there are less alternatives for Klopp I generally expect him to play

Salah

Here’s Salah’s stats at home against non top 6 sides

fantasy premier league captain tips GW30

So returns in 8 of 11 games and a healthy points per game average backed up by good xG/xA numbers. The concern is 2 of the last 3 being blanks on pretty ordinary underlying stats combined with a period of very ordinary shot numbers before hand. Bonus is still an issue.

In my my last 10 gameweek form tables Salah is 2nd for forwards on projected FPL points for xG/xA

The Burnley away defence against top 6 sides

fantasy premier league captain tips GW30

So these stats are pretty bad to say the least.

My underlying stats form tables though show them the 3rd best team over the last 10 games. So there have been notable improvements.  That has coincided with Heaton taking over from Joe Hart although Heaton was in goal v Man Utd where the stats were very poor.

So over the season though it’s a different story. The Burnley defence has conceded 53 goals and is ranked 17th on that basis. In xG conceded they are they are ranked 19th.

Away from home they have conceded 27 goals from 15 away games which is 16th in the rankings. On xG conceded over the season away they are 18th.

Aguero

Here’s Aguero’s starts against non top 6 sides at home

fantasy premier league captain tips GW30

So returns in 7 of 7 games . Overall the stats look excellent.  Minutes on the pitch is the negative.

In my recent last 10 gameweek form tables Aguero is 2nd for forwards on projected FPL points for xG/xA

The Watford away defence against top 6 sides

fantasy premier league captain tips GW30

In my recent last 10 gameweek form tables they are 14th on xG conceded.

So overall the Watford defence has conceded 41 goals from 29 games and is ranked 11th on that basis. In xG conceded they are ranked 10th.

Away they have conceded 22 from 15 games and are 9th ranked on that basis. On xG conceded they are 9th.

Comparison tables

Here we put the 2 captain candidates averages together to compare as well as the defences

fantasy premier league captain tips GW30

fantasy premier league captain tips GW30



Summary

Gametime wise I think it’s always tricky to be totally confident about a City player,  especially at this time of the season with them competing on 3 fronts but the next 2 fixtures plus an international break are rotatable as well for Aguero.  I personally can’t see Salah being rested although they are in a difficult UCL position.

Aguero has pens.  Salah if Milner is off the pich

The bookies odds are very close at £1.53 to Aguero and  1.61 for Salah ATGS.

The polls are pretty neck and neck % wise

The contributors are Salah 5, Aguero 4, Sterling 3 and Vardy 1

The stats favour Aguero in terms of his over Salah’s.  Defence is hard to say. They favour Watford overall despite the 5-0 mauling v Liverpool but the recent form stats favour Burnley significantly.

The FFGeek choice

I have both.  At the moment I am leaning towards Aguero.  I feel he has the better stats and a weeks rest plus the next 2 fixtures gives me some confidence he will start.  I think it’s tricky to judge defences but Watford performance v Liverpool and the form tables favouring Burnley lean me towards Aguero.

The transfer in and out polls 

Thanks again for voting

fantasy premier league captain tips GW30

fantasy premier league captain tips GW30

That’s it.  Good luck who ever you choose.

See also the underlying stats for GW29 alone and the form tables

See the early FFGeek team article and the 10 top FPL managers we follow

Follow FFGeek on twitter and facebook and instagram for article updates and news

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