fantasy premier league captain tips GW33 – plus transfer poll and other poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW33 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls plus there are a number of other polls relating to GW33.  Updated for latest contributor captain picks.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW33 – plus transfer poll and other poll results

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

Chelsea v West Ham £1.30 – Hazard, Higuain

Southampton v Liverpool £1.38 – Salah, Mane

Huddersfield v Leicester £1.70 – Vardy

The Bookies player odds

The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.

£1.80 – Vardy, Hazard

£1.83 – Higuain

£1.95 – Aubameyang

£2.00 – Salah, Mane

£2.05 – Wilson

£2.20 – Rondon

£2.25 – Pedro

£2.30 – Lacazette

£2.37 – Firmino, Ashley Barnes

£2.40 – Josh King

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:

An average of 32 for Hazard and around 18 for Salah and Mane and 15 for Vardy

Btw, the FFGeek poll and site 2 asks who will you captain. Site 3 is silent. The FFGeek poll went up after GW32 was complete as did Site 1. I’m not sure when the others did.

FFGeek contributor captain picks

Just 1 contributor article at the moment

Updated: So 10 for Hazard, 2 for Vardy and 2 for Mane

Some stats

I’m going to be looking at the stats of Hazard, Vardy, Salah and Mane

Gametime

The fixtures are Fulham away on the Saturday and Cardiff at home on Wednesday

Hazard was sub for the weekends game v Cardiff but started on Wednesday.  Chelsea play on Monday v West Ham but then play Prague in the Europa on Thursday followed by Liverpool the following weekend.  It’s feasible he could be rotated although he could also be rotated in the Europa League game or not at all considering he was last weekend.  Who can tell at this stage of the season.

Similar comments for Liverpool as they play Porto midweek in the UCL

It seems pretty inconceivable that Vardy will be rested given no other distractions and the love affair that exists between him and Rodgers.

Hazard’s stats

Here’s Hazard’s stats in games he’s started against all non top 6 sides at home

Overall it looks pretty healthy. Returns in 7/10 games which is a healthy 70%. Incredibly 5 double figure returns which is a staggering 50%.

Vardy’s stats

Here’s Vardy’s stats in games he’s started against all non top 6 sides away

So returns in 4 of 8 games which is an ok 50%. No double figure hauls.

Salah’s stats

Here’s Salah’s stats against non top 6 sides away

So returns in 6 of the 10 games with 3 double figure hauls all of which is respectable.

no returns in the last 3 though and underlying stats way below the average which is a worrying trend

Mane’s stats

Here’s Mane’s stats against non top 6 sides away.

So returns in 5 of the 7 games (71%) with 3 double figure hauls.

Comparison tables

Here we put the 4 captain candidates averages together

So Hazard seems the overall winner depending on how you assess the importance of stats.  He does have the lowest underlying goal threat but the highest assist threat.  How sustainable his goal scoring is on that though is questionable.  Unsurprisingly his bonus position is the best.

Defence comparison

Rather than show each defence separately,  here’s the defence averages comparison against top 6 sides.

So West Ham have the worst stats although they have only played 3 games and 2 were in the first 3 game weeks.  However despite losing only 1-0 away to City in GW28 they were battered shots and xG wise

Summary

Gametime wise there’s no doubt that Vardy is the most secure with no distractions.  The others could be rotated but I would be surprised if they are.

The bookies only have Vardy and Hazard at £1.80 ATGS and Mane and Salah at £2.00

The polls favour Hazard at around 32% on average vs 18 ish for the Liverpool pair and 15% for Vardy

Geek update:  Contributor captain picks.  10 for Hazard, 2 for Vardy and 2 for Mane

The stats favour Hazard overall for me including defence faced although underlying stats wise he has the lowest goal threat.

Vardy and Hazard have pen duties.  Salah only if Milner is off the pitch.

The FFGeek choice

Overall I think Hazard is the best choice and he’s also the leader in the polls albeit not convincingly so I’m going for him.

The Remaining Polls

You can see all the polls in full in our captain poll article

Other stuff

If you’re needing to plan your FPL transfers use Joseph Crilleys google spreadsheet which is an excellent team planning tool.

Vote in our captain poll and other GW33 polls.  There’s also our 10 top FPL managers free hit special and the Geeks early ffgeek team thoughts

Also see our GW32 part 1 gameweek review

See our bandwagons and sinking ships article for popular transfers and Rob Reid’s player picks for transfer ideas.  Check out last seasons 715 OR finisher Andrew Ferguson’s team

Follow FFGeek on twitter and facebook and instagram for article updates and news

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