fantasy premier league captain tips GW34 – captain options analysed

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW34 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. 

fantasy premier league captain tips GW34 – captain options analysed 

The fixtures 

The Bookies Team win odds

Spurs v Huddersfield £1.20  – Son, Eriksen

Palace v Man City £1.30 – Aguero, Sterling

Man Utd v West Ham – Lukaku, Pogba, Rashford

Brighton by the way are £2.25 v Bournemouth and £1.85 v Cardiff  to win – Duffy, Murray

The Bookies player odds

The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.

£1.61 – Son

£1.70 – Llorente

£1.75 – Vardy, Moura, Lukaku, Aguero

£1.83 – Martial

£1.91 – Aubameyang

£1.95 – Murray (game 1 only. No odds game 2)

£2.00 – Sterling

£2.05 – Barnes A, Richarlison, Pogba, Mane, Salah, Lacazette

£2.15 – Andone

£2.20 – Alli, Sigurdsson

£2.25 – Ings

£2.30 – Wilson, Sane

£2.37 – Wood, Calvert Lewin, Firmino

The Brighton clean sheet odds are £2.87 v Bournemouth and £2.00 v Cardiff

The Cardiff clean sheet odds are £4.00 v Burnley and £3.90 v Brighton

 The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:

So Son averages 42%, Duffy 15%, Vardy 13% and Murray 7%

Btw, the FFGeek poll and site 2 and 3 asks who will you captain. Site 4 is silent. Site 1 asks who is the best captain.  Site 4 had Kane in the voting.  The others didn’t.

FFGeek contributor captain picks

Just 1 contributor article at the moment.  I will update it later

Geek update:  Final contributor count Son 6, Duffy 4, Eriksen 2 and Murray 1

Some stats

I’m going to be looking at the stats of Son and Duffy

Gametime

With European fixtures next week and Man City and Spurs delicately poised it seems possible that rest related rotation will occur.  With Son the likely CF going forward he becomes a very important player so Pochettinho could conceivably rest Son and hope the job gets done with Llorente.  It’s impossible to know what’s going to happen here.  Geek update.  With Poch not optimistic about Alli for GW34 and Lamela out and Kane out that makes it more difficult for Son to be benched especially if they play 4-2-3-1.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Duffy will play both games given that Brighton are only 5 points away from the relegation zone.

Son’s stats

Here’s Son’s stats in games he’s started against all non top 6 sides at home

Overall it looks pretty good. Returns in 8 of 9 games.  A really strong PPG.  Underlying stats are reasonably good too. Interestingly his position is less important than you’d think.   Everything is better without except for his xG.  Make of that what you will although I’ve limited the data set to 3 games without him using this method.

The Huddersfield defence 

Here’s the Huddersfield defence away against the top 6

It doesn’t get much worse than that.

Over the season away from home, surprisingly they are 14th in xG conceded but 18th in goals conceded.

My recent form article though paints a worse picture.  Over the last 10 gameweeks, home and away they are 18th in xG conceded and 19th in goals conceded.

Duffys stats

Here’s Duffy’s and Brighton’s stats at home to non top 6 sides

So impressively Duffy has returned a goal or clean sheet in 6 of the 9 games.  However despite all those clean sheets being 1-0 he’s only got bonus points in 1 of those games.  That’s fairly disturbing.

Interestingly Ryan has got bonus points in 4 of the 5 clean sheets.  By the way it’s worth noting that Brighton only have 6 clean sheets.

On the goal threat side it’s 1 goal in 9 games although the xG and shots aren’t too bad. He gets a shot in most games.

The Bournemouth and Cardiff attack

Bournemouth.

Over the season away from home, they are 9th in xG  but 14th in goals scored.

My recent form article says over the last 10 gameweeks, home and away they are 14th in xG

Cardiff.

Over the season away from home, they are 19th in xG  and 20th in goals scored

My recent form article says over the last 10 gameweeks, home and away they are 15th in xG

Summary

Gametime wise there has to be some risk that Son could be rested with the midweek Wednesday Champions League tie still winnable.  Hard to imagine that Duffy won’t play both games.

The bookies have Son at £1.61 to score but that assumes he starts.

The polls favour  Son and he averages 42%, Duffy 15%, Vardy 13% and Murray 7%

The contributor captain picks.  Geek update:  Final contributor count Son 6, Duffy 4, Eriksen 2 and Murray 1

It’s difficult to compare stats but in points per match v non top 6 Son is 8.13 and Duffy is 4.78.  Over 2 matches Duffy edges that.  On the stats I have it’s there doesn’t appear to be a Kane or positional effect.

The FFGeek choice

At the moment I’m not sure.  I’m not wild about going against the polls especially when Huddersfield are involved.  However it remains a risk that Son as anyone with UCL games could be rotated.  Geek update.  With Poch not optimistic about Alli for GW34 and Lamela out and Kane out that makes it more difficult for Son to be benched especially if they play 4-2-3-1.

However, the fact that Spurs fan and FFGeek contributor Joseph Crilley is currently on Duffy when his team is playing Huddersfield says alot.  However impossible to predict you just have to take your pick and take your chances.

Duffy takes away gametime risk and there clean sheet record is good but his bonus and the chances of a goal could be better.  Cardiff away from home don’t have great attacking stats though so there remains a good chance of a clean sheet there.

I haven’t ruled out Ryan as an option yet just to throw something out of the blue.  Only Burnley and Fulham concede more shots than Brighton and with Ryan getting bonus with clean sheets it doesn’t sound such a stupid idea.  Also if they get no clean sheets then at least you have save points as a hedge.  Obviously the dream with Duffy is a clean sheet, goal and 3 bonus which is the 11 pointer you hang out for.

The Remaining Polls

I’m going to do a seperate article on the FFGeek readers wildcard team.

That’s it hope you found it helpful

If you’re needing to plan your FPL transfers use Joseph Crilleys google spreadsheet which is an excellent team planning tool.

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