fantasy premier league captain tips GW5 – plus transfer poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW5 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW5 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

Only 2 teams are heavy favourites this week:

Chelsea v Cardiff £1.17 – Hazard

Man City v Fulham £1.12 – Aguero

 The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.20 for £1 invested:

£1.40 – Aguero

£1.65 – Jesus

£1.80 – Morata

£1.83 – Hazard

£1.95 – Sterling, Kane, Salah

£2.00 – Aubameyang

£2.10 – Pedro

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll:

You can see the full FFGeek captain poll with this link

The FFGeek poll asks who will you captain as does site 2 although just gives you a couple of options. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 3 is silent on the question.

The FFGeek contributors

Here’s the FFGeek contributors captain picks as it stands. Not many have surfaced with their teams as yet.  I’ll fill the rest in once I’ve done the last contributors article

With the 2 favourites being Hazard and Aguero lets look at some stats

Hazard

Here’s Hazard in 17/18 against non top 6 sides.  These stats are of limited use given the change of manager, especially as Sarri is a more attacking manager than Conte was

I thought it might not be great but I didn’t expect it to be this bad.  So he returned a goal or assist in 3 of 11 (27%) matches at home against the non top 6 in 17/18.

In the 1 game at home this season against a non top 6 side he scored got 3 bonus and got 11 points.  Mainly thanks to a Begovic howler and his underlying stats weren’t impressive at all.

Cardiff defence

A promoted side so no 17/18 PL stats.  So far this season they have been away to Bournemouth and Huddersfield. They have played at home v Arsenal and were surprisingly attack minded losing 3-2 but with a respectable 1.32 xG conceded.

Aguero

Here’s Aguero at home in 17/18 against non top 6 sides:

So he returned in 7/10 (70%) games at home against the non top 6 sides

Here’s his 2 games at home this season:

Fulham defence

Fulham were in the Championship last season so not stats for them from last year

So far this season they have played Spurs away and lost 3-1 and a pretty serious xG conceded of 2.82 including 25 shots.  The Fulham manager has said they will attack.  It could be a bloodbath.

Summary

As far as Aguero gametime is concerned,  so far this season we’ve seen him start in a CF pair in the home games.  We are now entering a new phase which involves the Champions League though so things could change.  Nothing in the press conference of note from Pep today.

With Chelsea in the Europa League it seems difficult to believe Hazard won’t start.  The first game is away to PAOK so if Hzard plays in that it would be a major shock and signal to me that Sarri wants to win it without too much teamsheet risk.

The bookies have Aguero at £1.40 this week and Hazard £1.83

Aguero is a clear leader in the polls at around 70% to Hazards 15%

The FFGeek contributors as we’ve seen so far are pretty unanimously agreed on Aguero.

The Stats also favour Aguero not only for him but also on the defence he’s facing from the limited info we’ve seen so far.  The unknown is how much Sarri’s more attacking outlook and the fact that he’s played 90 minutes in both starts,  as compared to an average of 70 minutes under Conte, will benefit him

The FFGeek choice

At the moment I don’t have Hazard but I would go for Aguero anyway.  His ownership plus his captain favouritism as well as a fairly unlimited ceiling makes him a dangerous player to ignore

The transfer in and out polls

That’s it hope you found it useful.

See also the FFGeek contributors teams part 1,  last seasons 412 overall finisher Paul Williams on the midfield conundrum of Salah, Mane and Hazard,  the bandwagons and sinking ships article Rob Reids August review the FFGeek contributors imaginary wildcard teams part 1,  10 top FPL managers article, the underlying stats GW4 article, Jordans wildcard team, the early thoughts on the FFGeek team article and the fixture ease article

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