Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW6 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.
fantasy premier league captain tips GW6 – plus transfer poll results
Just a note to say this article was written late Thursday/Early Friday before any pre PL Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City press conferences.
The Bookies Team win odds
Only 2 teams are heavy favourites this week:
Liverpool v Southampton £1.18 – Salah
Cardiff v Man City £1.15 – Aguero
And some also decent favourites
Arsenal v Everton £1.47 Lacazette, Aubameyang
West Ham v Chelsea £1.57 Hazard
Man Utd v Wolves £1.60 Lukaku
Leicester v Huddersfield £1.60 Vardy
The Bookies player odds
Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.20 for £1 invested as of Thursday evening It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential
£1.50 – Salah
£1.57 – Aguero
£1.73 – Aubameyang
£1.75 – Jesus, Kane
£1.83 – Sterling
£1.85 – Lacazette
£1.95 – Hazard
£2.05 – Vardy
£2.10 – Lukaku, Firmino, Mane, Morata, Giroud
£2.20 – Mitrovic, Sane, Mahrez
The FPL advice site Polls
Here’s the FFGeek captain poll:
You can see the full FFGeek captain poll with this link
The FFGeek poll asks who will you captain as does site 2 although just gives you a couple of options. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 3 is silent on the question.
|Site 1%||FFGeek%||Site 2%||Site 3%|
The FFGeek contributors
Here’s the FFGeek contributors captain picks as it stands. Not many have surfaced with their teams as yet. I’ll fill the rest in once I’ve done the last contributors article
This week I’m looking at 3 in Salah, Hazard and Aguero
Here’s Salah in 17/18 against non top 6 sides at home.
Returns in 11/14 games (79%)
Here’s Salah in the 2 games at home v non top 6 opposition:
A great record last season and a goal in each game in 18/19 but bonus is a problem
Southampton defence in 17/18 against top 6 away
They have to play away against a top 6 team this season
In 17/18 they averaged 2.3 goals away conceded. Some of those games were with Pellegrino in charge who is more defensively minded than Hughes is. An ok overall record so far this season against only non top 6 sides. They are 11th in the table for xG conceded home and away.
Here’s Hazard in 17/18 against non top 6 sides away. These stats are of limited use given the change of manager, especially as Sarri is a more attacking manager than Conte was
So he returned a goal or assist against 6 of the 11 teams played (55%). A pretty ordinary record.
In 18/19 he’s started just the 1 game away against non top 6 opposition v Newcastle. He scored and took the 1 bonus point for 8 points.
West Ham defence at home against top 6 sides in 17/18
So 11 goals conceded but also 3 clean sheets. Different manager different personnel in defence makes it hard to make a comparison though.
In 18/19 they have yet to play a top 6 side at home although have conceded 4 goals against Liverpool and 3 against Arsenal away. Overall so far this season they are 18th on xG conceded overall home and away but with a tough schedule.
What we do know is that overall they have conceded 11 goals in the first 5 games in some pretty shambolic performances. There will be a local derby factor with the crowd which may translate to extra effort from the players
Here’s Aguero away in 17/18 against non top 6 sides:
So he returned in 4/7 (57%) games away against the non top 6 sides
Only the 1 game away against a non top 6 side. That was against Wolves this season where he blanked. His xG and xA were ordinary on the day although he did take 4 shots and 3 key passes so volume wise it was good.
Cardiff defence at home against top 6
Cardiff were in the Championship last season so no stats for them from last year
So far in 18/19 they have played Arsenal at home and lost 3-2 on an xG of 1.32 which isn’t too bad. The loss to Chelsea was away at 4-1 but again the xG excluding the pen was around 1.8.
Gametime wise Aguero is fit and after only being a sub on Wednesday you’d expect him to play. Hazard was rested for the Europa game so he looks certain to start. Salah I guess could be rested given he played against PSG but there are only EFL cup games midweek and I expect him to be rested for that.
The bookies have Salah at £1.50 Aguero at £1.57 this week and Hazard £1.95
The polls are a bit mixed and not easily summarised. Poll 1 started on Wednesday early before we knew Aguero was on the bench and may have under represented him. Overall I would say Salah has the edge.
It’s an early captain article so I only have 3 contributors teams at the moment. All of them have gone for Salah
Salah’s stats from last season at home v non top 6 sides were fantastic. He’s started with a 100% record in those games too but without a bonus point which is the worry.
Aguero’s record wasn’t that great last season and this season only 1 game which was a blank against a tricky side in Wolves.
Hazard last season was also pretty ordinary but that was Conte this is Sarri who is far more attacking and wants Hazard to attack more. Hazard has also been rested midweek, In the only game v a non top 6 side away in 18/19 against Newcastle he scored although generated little apart from shots outside the box.
As far as the defences are concerned, It’s hard to take much from last season. Southampton and West Ham are different personnel and for the most part different managers. Cardiff were in the Championship.
Looking at the limited data this season, West Ham have been terrible although they’ve had a couple of tricky games conceding 7 goals against top 6 sides albeit away. Cardiff also have conceded 7 goals against top 6 sides 1 away and 1 at home. Southampton have performed best as a defence but have had the easier schedule.
The FFGeek choice
I’m probably going to go for Salah. His poll leadership and ownership is still a factor if diminished from earlier in the season. He probably edges it on stats although that is mitigated by the Southampton defence although Mark Hughes isn’t a defensively minded manager.
Hazard is difficult to predict due to the new manager factor. Aguero against a relegation bookies favourite side is always going to be a good pick even if he is better at home rather than away.
The transfer in and out polls
That’s it hope you found it useful.
See also the FFGeek imaginary wildcard article, Andrew Ferguson’s teams article, Alex Ball’s wildcard, bandwagons and sinking ships article, 10 top FPL managers article, underlying stats GW5 article, the early thoughts on the FFGeek team article and the fixture ease article
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