fantasy premier league captain tips GW7 – plus transfer poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW7 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW7 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

3 teams are heavy favourites this week:

Man City v Brighton £1.07 – Aguero

Huddersfield v Spurs £1.47 – Kane

Arsenal v Watford £1.47 – Lacazette, Aubameyang

The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.25 for £1 invested as of Friday afternoon.  It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential

£1.44 – Aguero

£1.60 – Jesus

£1.67 – Kane

£1.75 – Aubameyang, Sterling

£1.85 – Lacazette

£1.91 – Sane, Mahrez

£1.95 – Lukaku

£2.10 – Salah

£2.25 – Richarlison

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll:

You can see the full FFGeek captain poll with this link

The FFGeek poll asks who will you captain as does site 2 although just gives you a couple of options. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 3 is silent on the question.

The FFGeek contributors

Here’s the FFGeek contributors captain picks as it stands. Not many have surfaced with their teams as yet. I’ll fill the rest in once I’ve done the last contributors article

You can see the contributors teams article part 1 here contributors part 2 and contributors part 3

Some stats

This week I’m looking at the 2 favourites in Aguero and Kane for the first time

Aguero

Here’s Aguero’s starts in 17/18 against non top 6 sides at home.

Returns in 7/10 games (70%).  His minutes average when starting was good.  It’s also worth noting that in the PL in 17/18 he was benched and didn’t get off 4 times last season.  All away.  He got off the bench once in addtion to that (again away) for 24 minutes

Here’s Aguero in the 3 games at home v non top 6 opposition in 18/19:

So he has return in 3/3 games.  His minutes could be better.  On the face of those games you would say as soon as City are safe winners he will be for the subs bench.  Bonus is a bit mixed (% he gets a bonus point when he returns) and early substitutions won’t help

Brighton defence in 17/18 against top 6 away

A pretty dismal record averaging 2.3 goals against.  The defence isn’t significantly different than last year except in the FB area which was tinkered with alot anyway.  CDM Stephens looks like he’s out which won’t help.

So far this season they have played only Liverpool away from home of the top 6 sides.  That was a backs to the wall 1-0 loss.  70% possession against and 22 shots with 8 on target gives you a rough idea of the match.

Kane

Here’s Kane’s starts in 17/18 against non top 6 sides away. By the way I’ve removed the Bournemouth game where he started but was injured around 30 minutes.

So he returned a goal or assist against 9 of the 12 teams played (75%). A pretty spectacular record.

In 18/19 he’s started 3 games away against non top 6 opposition

The reading isn’t anywhere near as good with only 1 returning game (a penalty) and there’s not even the underlying stats to give you comfort.  If you were looking for any comfort it would be the 5 shots he had v Brighton

Huddersfield defence at home against top 6 sides in 17/18

So 14 goals conceded.  Again not much has changed about the Huddersfield defence

In 18/19 they have only played Chelsea at home and lost 3-0.  That’s the only top 6 home game although they also lost 6-1 to Man City away.

Summary

I would be surprised if Aguero didn’t start given he wasn’t even on the bench for the midweek EFL cup game and last season showed he was more likely to be benched away.  Impossible to see Kane not start especially with Eriksen out.  Both have penalty duties.

The Bookies have Aguero at £1.44 anytime goalscoring odds and Kane £1.67

The polls are overwhelmingly in favour of Aguero around 70-80% vs around 10% Kane.

Both have exceptional stats last season although the difference is that Kane has been pretty ordinary so far this season.  Aguero maybe not quite up to it and have minutes issues if the game is won but he looks better off than Kane at the moment.  With Kane you’re relying on history and the fixture rather than current form.  Interestingly the bookies still have faith in Kane at £4.00 to be top goalscorer vs Aguero at £3.75

As for the defences they face neither have performed particularly well last season against the top 6.  This season Brighton kept Liverpool from scoring more than 1 although possession and the shot count was pretty negative.  Huddersfield have been a disaster defensively against the top 6 this season.  Home to Chelsea 0-3 and away to Man City 1-6

The FFGeek choice

I don’t own Kane so I’ll be going for Aguero but even if I did own Kane I would stick with Aguero.  Kane may have the advantage of more guaranteed minutes and the poorer defence to face but his form really has been poor ever since his ankle injury against Bournemouth.  I also would be very reluctant to go against the polls when they are so strongly favouring the most owned player in the game.

The transfer in and out polls

That’s it hope you found it useful.

There’s also our fixture ease article which gives player suggestions with good fixtures. You can also see who the popular transfers are in our bandwagons article .

See also our  underlying stats article,  early FFGeek team thoughts and the 10 top managers I follow article

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