Fantasy premier league – clean sheet analysis GW11

Context and background

Lets firstly look at the number of clean sheets so far:

GW1 – 7

GW2 – 9

GW3 – 9

GW4 – 7

GW5 – 6

GW6 – 3

GW7 – 5

GW8 – 4

GW9 – 8

GW10 – 10

Thats 6.8 clean sheets per round.  41/68 (60%) have been home clean sheets

Here’s the group of fantasy premier league teams that I think your defence should come from

1.  Spurs

2.  Southampton

3.  Chelsea

4.  West Ham

5.  Arsenal

6.  Liverpool

7.  Man City

This group of 7 who have given you 32 clean sheets at 3.2 clean sheets per round.  So with those 7 being your GK and 5 defenders, hopefully you would  have at least got 3 clean sheets per gameweek although it would have been a fairly pricey defence.  4 of the 10 clean sheets last week came from this group.

GW10

I’m going to continue to follow last weeks format and take the William Hill odds of a clean sheet under £3.00 and give my view on the likelihood they will happen.

Last week out of the 7 potential clean sheets I looked at I predicted 5 right and got 2 wrong which is not too bad.  A bumper week this week with 8 potential clean sheets to look at under £3.00

Liverpool home to Fulham (£1.75)

Its now an incredible 7 games without a clean sheet for Liverpool.  However its only 3  goals conceded in 5 games on  their own ground and  2 clean sheets.  Unfortunately the underlying stats don’t give such a positive view either showing Liverpool with a middle of the table ranking

Fulham haven’t scored in 3 of the 5 away games.  The goal stats are distorted by the Palace game where they won 4-1 but apart from that they’ve only scored once in 5 games.  Their underlying stats are the worst of anyones.  Against Southampton they were awaful

Surely Liverpool can keep a clean sheet here otherwise Rodgers needs to take a good look at the system

Verdict:  Liverpool clean sheet

Southampton home to Hull (£1.83)

Southampton have conceded only 1 goal at home.  Underlying stats at home are only bettered by Man City

Hull have only scored 4 away although to be fair they faced City Chelsea, Everton and Spurs in those 5 games and threatened when they’ve not  scored. Underlying stats are bottom quarter.

I think Southampton will continue their clean sheet record here against a Hull side that has generally been relying on not conceding rather than scoring

Verdict:  Southampton clean sheet 

Chelsea home to WBA (£1.85)

I’ve rated Chelsea the 3rd best overall defence before GW10.    It’s now 5 games without a clean sheet but they’ve only conceded more than 1 goal at the fiasco that was Newcastle last week.  At home in 5 games they’ve conceded 3 goals and got 2 clean sheets.  Underlying stats are good which shows that things could turn around and clean sheets return.

WBA have scored 6 goals in 5 games with 2 blanks and have only scored more than 1 once.  That was at Man Utd and is not really representative of their attacking form away from home.  Underlying stats are middle of the table .

I think Chelsea will be very focused and looking to prove themselves again and a clean sheet will happen.

Verdict Chelsea clean sheet

Man City away to Sunderland (£2.10)

Incredibly Man City have conceded 9 goals away from home in 5 games.  Only 4 teams have conceded more.  The underlying stats are interesting. Although they are highly ranked on the shots conceded in the box stat they give away far more clear cut chances than any of the other better defensive teams.  This is something which could improve to see more clean sheets coming through.  Kompany still absent is an issue although Demichelis is far less accident prone than Garcia or Lescott was.

Its hard to assess Sunderland because of the poison that obviously was in the atmosphere with the previous manager.  Also Fletcher is now back being the only real proven striker at the club.  Looking at the 3 games since Poyet took over they have scored in the home game against Newcastle but not in the away games.

I think Sunderland will be so fired up that they will score 1

Verdict no clean sheet

Everton away to Palace (£2.20)

It’s a mixed story for Everton. They have conceded 7 goals away from home in  5 games which is a middle of the table ranking.  However,  have managed 2 clean sheets against Villa (courtesy of a missed Benteke pen) and Cardiff.  The away underlying defensive stats are good though but with a tendency to give away too many clear cut chances

Crystal Palace have scored 4 goals in 5 games at home. 3 of those were against Sunderland meaning they’ve not scored in 3/5 games.   Only Stoke have scored less.  Underlying stats show that this is a true reflection of where they should be.

Everton I believe have the defence to hold out here.

Verdict:  Everton clean sheet  

Spurs at home to Newcastle (£2.25)

I rate Spurs as the best overall defence in the league. Although they’ve conceded 4 in 5 games at home, 3 were in what I saw as a freak result at home to West Ham when they lost 3-0.  They had 3 clean sheets out of those 5 games.  Underlying stats at home could be better for their position.

Newcastle since Remy joined have been revitalised in attack.  Since he joined they scored in all 4 games away from home although the only top quality defence was Everton.

Personally I can see Newcastle scoring here

verdict: No clean sheet for Spurs

Swansea home to Stoke (£2.30)

Its hard to rate the Swansea home defence as 3 of the 5 home games were so difficult.  Out of 5 home games Swansea have got 2 clean sheets.  The first 3 games though were against Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal. Clean sheets followed against Sunderland and West Ham.  Williams is now back which will improve things

Stoke have the worst goal scoring record away from home only scoring 3 goals in 5 games.  Liverpool, West Ham, Arsenal, Fulham and Man Utd is a difficult start though to be fair.  Personally I just don’t think Stoke have the strikers to be an attacking force.  Underlying stats aren’t the worst but not enough to think they are in a false position

verdict:  Swansea clean sheet 

Villa home to Cardiff (£2.50)

Villa have conceded 9 goals in their 5 home games conceding 2 goals in every game except against Liverpool.  The underlying stats aren’t any good at all

Cardiff aren’t the greatest attacking side away from home that’s for sure.  They’ve only scored 5 goals but managed to score in 3/5 games.  Underlying stats reflect that position.

I think Cardiff will score here.

Verdict:  no clean sheet

Thats it.  Hope it helps with your fantasy premier league defence decisions

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