fantasy premier league – clean sheet analysis GW4


Here’s my look at all the fantasy premier league gameweek 4 matches to see where the potential clean sheets are

I’ve gone through all the games and given a basic stats analysis and then a verdict on whether I think there will be a clean sheet.  If you cant be bothered with all that there’s a summary at the end of what I think will be the clean sheets and the ranking of their likelihood.  I’ve also added the William Hill odds of a clean sheet and ranked all of them under£3.00  for a clean sheet in order as a comparison and a sense check.

Man Utd v Crystal Palace

Man Utd clean sheet:

Man Utd defence: 2 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet.  Underlying stats are ok just a little above mid point but had tricky fixtures

Crystal Palace attack: 4 goals in 3 games but bottom quarter underlying stats.

Crystal Palace clean sheet: 

Crystal Palace defence: 4 goals conceded in their first 3 games and no clean sheet.

Man Utd attack:  4 goals in 3 games although last 2 were blanks against good defence.  No Rooney for creativity.  Underlying stats are top third.

Verdict:  Utd clean sheet

Utd will be good enough for a clean sheet I feel against a pretty ordinary attack

William Hill Verdct:  Man U £1.75  Palace £9.00

Aston Villa v Newcastle

Aston Villa clean sheet:

Aston Villa defence:  2 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet.  Underlying stats though are excellent and they’ve defended very well to date

Newcastle  attack: 1 goal in 3 games and pretty good  underlying stats.

Newcastle clean sheet: 

Newcastle defence: 4 goals conceded in their first 3 difficult games but 2 clean sheets although against 2 ordinary away attacking teams.  Underlying stats ordinary

Aston Villa attack:  4 goals in 3 games all against very good defences.   Underlying stats aren’t that great but context is needed

Verdict:   Villa clean sheet 

The Villa defence has looked very good especially considering the opposition and the Newcastle attack pretty ordinary

William Hill verdict:  Villa £2.87 Newcastle £4.00

 Fulham v WBA

Fulham clean sheet:

Fulham defence:  4 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet.  Underlying stats though are the worst of anyone and looked terrible against Arsenal

WBA  attack: 0 goals in 3 games and terrible underlying stats.  Not sure Sessegnon and Anichebe will help

WBA clean sheet: 

WBA defence: 3 goals conceded in their first 3  games and 1 clean sheets although against 2 ordinary away attacking teams.  Underlying stats ordinary and bottom quarter

Fulham attack:  2 goals in 3 games and underlying ok stats but were terrible against Newcastle.

Verdict:   no clean sheet 

Difficult one this.  Hard to know if they will be too bad to score or too hopeless to stop scoring

William Hill verdict:  Fulham £2.70  WBA £4.00

Hull v Cardiff

Hull clean sheet:

Hull defence:  4 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet.  Underlying stats  are bottom third.  Have played at City and at Chelsea though

Cardiff  attack: 3 goals in 3 games and pretty ordinary underlying stats. Have only scored in the City game but West Ham and Everton are looking solid so far

Cardiff clean sheet: 

Cardiff defence: 4 goals conceded in their first 3  games and 1 clean sheet.    Underlying stats though have been near the worst

Hull attack:  1 goals in 3 games and underlying stats terrible but again away to City and Chelsea

Verdict:    Hull clean sheet

I think Hull will hold firm and nick one

William Hill verdict:  Hull £2.60  Cardiff £3.10

Stoke City v Man City

Stoke clean sheet:

Stoke defence:  2 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet.  Underlying stats  are bottom quarter though despite only Liverpool being a strong attacking team.

Man City  attack: 8 goals in 3 games and  the best underlying stats. look an attacking force with Negredo in the team.  Silva doubt may not be that much of an issue as Nasri has looked adequate cover

Man City clean sheet: 

Man City defence: 3 goals conceded in their first 3  games and 2 clean sheets.    Underlying stats are good but they have looked so shaky in the last 2 without Kompany

Stoke attack:  3 goals in 3 games and underlying stats are ok considering 2 tricky games

Verdict:     No clean sheet

City will definitely score and I think given Citys struggles with Hull and Cardiff that Stoke will score.  Probably from a set piece or corner

William Hill verdict:  Stoke £5.00 Man City £2.15

Sunderland v Arsenal

Sunderland clean sheet:

Sunderland defence:  5 goals conceded in first 3 games and 0 clean sheet.  Underlying stats  are  middle of the table but against Fulham, Palace and Southampton

Arsenal attack: 5 goals in 3 games and  very good underlying stats. Will be boosted by the purchase of Ozil

Arsenal clean sheet:

Arsenal defence: 4 goals conceded in their first 3  games and 1 clean sheet.    Underlying stats are good considering the nightmare of the opening game against Villa. Assisted by the purchase of Flamini who will give the back 4 more protection through tackling agression and organisation from midfield

Sunderland attack:  2 goals in 3 games and poor underlying stats

Verdict:      Arsenal clean sheet

The Sunderland attack couldn’t score against the Fulham defence.  Need I say more.  Arsenal will definitely score

William Hill Verdict:  Sunderland £5.00  Arsenal £2.25

Spurs v Norwich

Spurs clean sheet:

Spurs defence:  1 goals conceded in first 3 games and 2 clean sheets.  Underlying stats  are  very good.  They are looking strong

Norwich attack: 3 goals in 3 games and  ok underlying stats.

Norwich clean sheet: 

Norwich defence: 3 goals conceded in their first 3  games and 1 clean sheet.    Underlying stats are poor though

Spurs attack:  2 goals in 3 games both pens.  Underlying stats are ok.  Have added Lamela and  Eriksen to boost their goal scoring and creativity

Verdict:      Spurs clean sheet

The Spurs defence has been strong and the Norwich attack poor.

William Hill verdict:  Spurs £2.05   Norwich  £6.00

Everton v Chelsea

Everton clean sheet:

Everton  defence:  2 goals conceded in first 3 games and 2 clean sheets.  Underlying stats  are  very good.  They are looking defensively solid surprisingly

Chelsea  attack: 4 goals in 3 games and  top 3rd underlying stats.  Eto’o should solve the striking issue (although he could have with Lukaku in my mind)

Chelsea  clean sheet: 

Chelsea  defence: 1 goal conceded in their first 3  games and 2 clean sheets.    Underlying stats are  good

Everton attack:  2 goals in 3 games  Underlying stats are good though.  Lukaku is ineligible

Verdict:     Chelsea clean sheet

The Chelsea defence will be too strong  for the Jelavic/Kone  led attack.

William Hill verdict:  Everton £3.50 Chelsea £2.80

Southampton v West Ham

Southampton Clean sheet

Southampton defence:  2 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheets.  Underlying stats  are  mid tableish. I’m still a believer in their defence although his dropping of Shaw and Clyne is a bit of a mystery.

West Ham attack: 2 goals in 3 games and  bottom 3rd underlying stats.  Petric should improve them if he starts

West Ham   clean sheet: 

West Ham defence: 1 goal conceded in their first 3  games and 2 clean sheets.    Underlying stats are  good

Southampton attack :  2 goals in 3 games.  1 a pen.  Underlying stats are lower mid table.  Osvaldo should strengthen the attack

Verdict:     Southampton clean sheet

I think the Saints defence will hold the West ham attack which is poor without Carroll.

William Hill verdict:  Saints £2.30  West Ham £4.20

Swansea v Liverpool

Swansea  Clean sheet

Swansea defence:  5 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet.  Underlying stats  are very poor but have had 2 difficult matches against United and Spurs.

Liverpool attack: 3 goals in 3 games and  top 3rd underlying stats.  Have struggled in patches but showed what the could do at home to stoke when the score could have been anything but they just didn’t finish

Liverpool clean sheet: 

Liverpool defence: 0 goals conceded in their first 3  games and 3 clean sheets.    Underlying stats are only mid table though which shows how they lost control of games.  United also pressed hard and had lots of shots.  Injuries to Johnson and Sakho may start

Swansea  attack :  3 goals in 3 games.   Underlying stats are  mid table.  2 games against strong defensive teams

Verdict:      no clean sheets

I think both sides have attacks that will pierce defences that have some improvement.  Liverpool’s underlying stats will catch up with them.

William Hill verdict:  Swansea £3.75 Liverpool £2.80

Summary

Here’s my clean sheets and the order of likelihood:

Man Utd

Spurs

Arsenal

Chelsea

Southampton

Villa

Hull

Here’s the William Hill odds under £3.00 to win

Man Utd – £1.75

Spurs – £2.05

Man City – £2.15

Arsenal –  £2.25

Southampton –  £2.30

Hull  – £2.60

Fulham  – £2.70

Chelsea  – £2.80

Liverpool –  £2.80

Villa  – £2.87

The main difference seems to be my faith in the Chelsea defence  compared to William Hill and William Hills faith in the City defence compared to mine

That’s it.  hope it helped you in selecting your fantasy premier league defence this week

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William Hill odds are as of Friday 13th morning when I did this post

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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