fantasy premier league – clean sheet analysis GW5


Here’s my look at all the fantasy premier league gameweek GW5 matches to see where the potential clean sheets are

I’ve gone through all the games and given a basic stats analysis and then a verdict on whether I think there will be a clean sheet.  If you cant be bothered with all that there’s a summary at the end of what I think will be the clean sheets and the ranking of their likelihood.  I’ve also added the William Hill odds of a clean sheet and ranked all of them under£3.00  for a clean sheet in order as a comparison and a sense check.

Norwich v Aston villa

Norwich clean sheet:

Norwich defence: 5 goals conceded in first 4 games and 1 clean sheet.  Underlying stats are poor ranked bottom third.  Last year 8 clean sheets at home but defence hasnt been as strong although back to the obstructive best home to  Southampton in GW3

Aston Villa  attack: 5 goals in 4 games but bottom 3rd ranked underlying stats.  Better on the break than in a structured attack.

Aston Villa clean sheet: 

Aston Villa defence: 6 goals conceded in their first 4 games and no clean sheet.  Middle ranked underlying defensive stats.  Were very impressive away from home against tough opposition but were poor at home to Newcastle

Norwich  attack:  3 goals in 4 games  and underlying stats in the bottom 3.

Verdict:  no clean sheet

Villa will definitely score and I think Norwich will start to improve their new expensively build attack

William Hill clean sheet Verdict:  Norwich £3.00  Villa £3.60

Liverpool v Southampton

Liverpool clean sheet:

Liverpool defence:  2 goals conceded in first 4 games and 3 clean sheets.  Underlying stats though are only top 3rd and reshuffling with new players and injuries may disrupt

Southampton attack: 2 goal in 4 games (one a pen and another from a defender at a set piece)  Underlying stats are mid table though and the goals will come.  Integrating Osvaldo into the team and the partnership with Lambert is obviously causing some issues.

Southampton clean sheet: 

Southampton  defence: 2 goals conceded in their first 2 and 2 clean sheets.  Underlying stats excellent and the best outside the elite teams

Liverpool  attack:  5 goals in 4 games and at the top of the   underlying stats with the top 4 attacking teams. Coutinho injured loses  some creativity

Verdict:   Liverpool clean sheet 

Liverpool will be strong enough in defence to hold off the newly formed Saints attack.  Despite my admiration for the Saints attack, I think its inevitable Liverpool will score even without Coutinho

William Hill clean sheet verdict:  Liverpool £2.30 Southampton £5.50

 Newcastle v  Hull City

Newcastle clean sheet:

Newcastle defence:  5 goals conceded in first 2 games but 2 clean sheets.  Underlying stats though are bottom quarter.  Somehow they’ve kept 2 clean sheets at home albeit against West ham and an awful Fulham

Hull attack: 2 goals in 4 games and close to the worst  underlying stats. Misfiring strikers when they do get chances

Hull  clean sheet: 

Hull  defence: 5 goals conceded in their first 4  games and 1 clean sheets although have played away to Chelsea and City.  Underlying stats are mid table.  I believe Bruce will get clean sheets but they will probably be at home against the poorer sides

Newcastle attack:  3 goals in 4 games and mid table underlying stats.

Verdict:   Newcastle clean sheet

I think Newcastle will scrape a win

William Hill clean sheet verdict:  Newcastle £2.25  Hull £4.20

WBA v Sunderland

WBA clean sheet:

WBA defence:  4 goals conceded in first 4 games and 1 clean sheet.  Underlying stats  are bottom third.

Sunderland  attack: 3 goals in 4 games and mid table ranked underlying stats. Haven’t created many clear cut chances though.  Fletcher coming back will help if they can get the service to him.

Sunderland clean sheet: 

Sunderland defence: 8 goals conceded in their first 4  games and 1 clean sheet.    Underlying stats though are bottom quarter of the table.  Have a real problem at set pieces

WBA attack:  1 goals in 4 games (from s defender at a set piece) and underlying stats are bottom quarter

Verdict:    no clean sheets

I think both teams will score.  I really can’t see the Sunderland defence keeping a clean sheet and i think Sunderland will have enough with Fletcher in the team to get a goal

William Hill verdict:  WBA £2.50  Sunderland £3.75

West Ham v Everton

West Ham clean sheet:

West Ham defence:  1 goals conceded in first 4 games and 3 clean sheet.  Underlying stats  aren’t quite as good though and they’re upper middle table.  People don’t get many clear cut chances though

Everton attack: 3 goals in 4 games but  the best underlying stats of any team.  Lukaku joining will convert the shots to goals

Everton clean sheet: 

Everton defence: 2 goals conceded in their first 4  games and 3 clean sheets.    Haven’t conceded since the opening game.  Underlying stats are near the top but were damaged by the siege of Chelsea.

West Ham attack:  2 goals in 4 games and underlying stats are near the bottom which considering the relatively kind start they’ve had is poor.  No Carroll is a big blow as Maiga just isn’t up to it for me.

Verdict:     Everton clean sheet

I am confident despite west hams good clean sheet record that Everton will score.  I don’t think West Ham with an attack built round the absent Carroll and led by Maiga will

William Hill clean sheet verdict:  West Ham £3.30 Everton £2.75

Chelsea v Fulham

Chelsea clean sheet:

Chelsea defence:  2 goals conceded in first 4 games and 2 clean sheets.  Underlying stats  are   near the top.  Will be one of the best defences in the league

Fulham attack: 3 goals in 3 games and worst underlying stats of any team.   Berbatov is doubtful to make it better for Chelseas chances

Fulham clean sheet:

Fulham defence:  5 goals in 4 games and 1 clean sheet.  Only Swansea have worse underlying stats and at least they can say they’ve played Utd Liverpool and Spurs.  Fulham have no such excuse

Chelsea attack:  4 goals in 4 games but near the top of the underlying stats.  Need some knitting together but will come right

Verdict:      Chelsea clean sheet

Cant see anything else in this game

William Hill clean sheet Verdict:   Chelsea £1.80  Fulham £7.50

Arsenal v Stoke

Arsenal clean sheet:

Arsenal  defence:  5 goals conceded in first 4 games and only 1 clean sheets.  3 of the goals were in the opening day disaster against Villa.  Underlying stats  are  good just at the back of the tp 4 challenging teams.  They are looking strong

Stoke attack: 3 goals in 4 games and  bottom 3rd underlying stats.

Stoke  clean sheet: 

Stoke defence: 2 goals conceded in their first 4  games and 2 clean sheet.    Underlying stats are bottom 3rd and Liverpool could have scored anything against them at Anfield

Arsenal attack:  8 goals in 4 games.  Only City has scored as many goals.  Underlying stats are good.  Only City’s and Evertons are better.   Have the class of Ozil to open up teams at home which was an issue at times

Verdict:      Arsenal clean sheet

Despite the Arsenal defence not being at its best I think they will hold stoke.  Flamini has helped.  An Ozil inspired attack will have too much creativity for Stoke

William Hill clean sheet verdict:  Arsenal £1.80   Stoke  £7.00

Crystal Palace v Swansea

Palace clean sheet:

Palace  defence:  6 goals conceded in first 4 games and 0 clean sheets.  Only Swansea have conceded more goals.  Underlying stats  are  very poor and ranked near the bottom of the able.

Swansea  attack: 5 goals in 4 games and  mid table underlying stats.  They have played Man Utd, Spurs and Liverpool though

Swansea clean sheet: 

Swansea defence: 7 goals conceded in their first 4  games and 1 clean sheet.    Underlying stats are  worst in the league.  Again they have played Man Utd, Spurs and Liverpool though

Palace attack:  4 goals in 4 games.  3 against Sunderland   Underlying stats are among the worst in the league.

Verdict:     no clean sheet

There’s no question in my mind that Swansea will score and I think the Swansea defence, although it performed well on occasions away from home last year, will concede 1.

William Hill clean verdict:  Palace £3.50 Swansea £2.70

Cardiff v Spurs

Cardiff Clean sheet

Cardiff defence:  5 goals conceded in first 4 games and 1 clean sheet.  Underlying stats  are   among the worst in the league

Spurs attack: 4 goals in 4 games.   Underlying stats are at the bottom of the top 4 challenging teams at the top of the league.  Eriksen will definitely assist creativity

Spurs  clean sheet: 

Spurs defence: 1 goal conceded in their first 4  games and 3 clean sheets.    Underlying stats are the best in the league

Cardiff attack :  4 goals in 4 games.  3 against City.  Underlying stats are the lowest in the league apart from Fulham.

Verdict:     Spurs clean sheet

Spurs defence is performing wonders and should get a clean sheet

William Hill verdict:  Cardiff £4.20  Spurs £2.50

Man City v  Man Utd

Man City Clean sheet

Man City  defence:  3 goals conceded in first 4 games and 3 clean sheets.  Underlying stats  are only bettered by Spurs.   have looked shaky but have still produced the clean sheets and Kompanys return will help

Man Utd  attack: 6 goals in 4 games and  towards the lower of the top 4 challenging teams in underlying stats.  Haven’t been as fluent as last year but Rooney behind RVP looks good for creativity

Man Utd clean sheet: 

Man Utd defence: 2 goals conceded in their first 4  games and 2 clean sheets.    Underlying stats are 3rd behind City and Spurs.

Man City attack :  8 goals in 4 games.   Underlying stats are  2nd only to Everton.

Verdict:      no clean sheets

Tricky one as depends how both managers play this.  Personally, I think Pellegrini will attack and Utd will look to play on the break as opposed to the Mancini tactic which would have been caution.  For this reason I think both teams will score

William Hill clean sheet verdict:  City £3.00 Utd  £4.20

Summary

Here’s my clean sheets and the order of likelihood:

Chelsea

Liverpool

Spurs

Arsenal

Newcastle

Everton

Here’s the William Hill odds under £3.00 to win

Chelsea – £1.80

Arsenal £1.80

Newcastle £2.25

Liverpool £2.30

Spurs £2.50

WBA –  £2.50

Swansea – £2.70

So apart from ranking differences William Hill seem to have more faith than me in the ability of WBA and Swansea to get a clean sheet.

Ok thats it thanks and hope the above helps

 

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William Hill odds are as of Friday 20th morning when I did this post