Fantasy premier league – clean sheet analysis GW7

Fantasy Premier League

Here’s my look at all the fantasy premier league gameweek GW7 matches to see where the potential clean sheets are

Last week was a shock to the system with only 3 clean sheets wheras the previous 5 weeks had seen an average of 7.4 per gameweek

I’ve gone through all the games and given a basic stats analysis and then a verdict on whether I think there will be a clean sheet.  If you cant be bothered with all that there’s a summary at the end of what I think will be the clean sheets and the ranking of their likelihood.  I’ve also added the William Hill odds of a clean sheet and ranked all of them under£3.00  for a clean sheet in order as a comparison and a sense check.

Man City v Everton

Man City clean sheet:

Man City defence: 7 goals conceded in first 6 games but 3 clean sheets. Only conceded 1 goal at home.   Underlying stats are only bettered by Spurs.

Everton  attack: 6 games in 2 goals since Lukaku joined

Everton clean sheet:

Everton defence : 6 goals conceded in their first 6 games and 3 clean sheets.   Top 4 underlying stats.

Man City attack:  14 goals in 6 games  and underlying stats only bettered by Arsenal

Verdict:  no clean sheet

Both sides will score in my mind

William Hill clean sheet Verdict:  Man City £2.45  Everton £6.00

Cardiff v Newcastle

Cardiff clean sheet:

Cardiff  defence:  7 goals conceded in first 6 games and 1 clean sheets.   Terrible underlying stats

Newcastle attack: 7 goals in 6 games  and underlying stats on the improve.  Remy has definitely helped

Newcastle  clean sheet:

Newcastle   defence: 11 goals conceded in their first 6 games and 2 clean sheets.  Underlying stats  are very poor.  Definitely defend better at home.

Cardiff attack:  6 goals in 6 games and mid table underlying stats.  3 of the 6 goals were scored against City.

Verdict:   No clean sheet 

Cant see either defence holding firm here

William Hill clean sheet verdict:  Cardiff £3.00 Newcastle £3.50

Fulham v Stoke City

Fulham clean sheet:

Fulham defence:  9 goals conceded in first 6 games with 1 clean sheet.  Underlying stats though are the worst of any team.

Stoke  attack: 4 goals in 6 games and close to the worst  underlying stats.

Stoke clean sheet:

Stoke  defence: 6 goals conceded in their first 6  games and 2 clean sheets.  Underlying stats though are bottom third and they’re better at home

Fulham attack:  4 goals in 6 games and near worst underlying stats.

Verdict:   2 clean sheets

2 hopeless attacks and erratic defences at best.  Caution will see a nil nil in my mind

William Hill clean sheet verdict:  Fulham £2.70  Stoke £3.25

Hull v Aston Villa

Hull clean sheet:

Hull defence:  7 goals conceded in first 6 games but 2 clean sheets at home.  Underlying stats  are mid table ish

Aston Villa  attack: 9 goals in 6 games and very good  underlying stats.  No Benteke though

Aston Villa clean sheet:

Aston Villa defence: 8 goals conceded in their first 6  games and 1 clean sheet.    Underlying stats though are bottom third of the table.  n

Hull attack:  6 goals in 6 games and surprisingly good underlying stats.

Verdict:    Hull clean sheet

Hull clean sheet.  Another backs to the wall clean sheet aided by a lack of Benteke

William Hill verdict:  Hull £2.75  Aston Villa £3.40

 Liverpool v Crystal Palace

Liverpool clean sheet:

Liverpool defence:  4 goals conceded in first 6 games and 3 clean sheets.  Only 1 goal conceded at home though.  Underlying stats  aren’t quite as good though and they’re upper middle table.

Palace attack: 4 goals in 6 games and  one of the worst  underlying stats. Only scored 1 goal in 3 games away

Palace  clean sheet:

Palace defence: 10 goals conceded in their first 6  games and 0 clean sheets.   2 goals conceded in each of the 3 away games. Underlying stats are near the bottom of the table.

Liverpool attack:   With Suarez back they will be potent.

Verdict:     Liverpool clean sheet

Liverpool defence despite 3 clean sheets hasn’t been that convincing but should be enough to hold off Palace.

William Hill clean sheet verdict:  Liverpool £1.67 Palace £9.50

Sunderland v Man Utd

Sunderland clean sheet:

Sunderland defence:  14 goals conceded in first 6 games and 0 clean sheets.  Underlying stats  are  in the bottom quarter.

Man Utd attack: 8 goals in 6 games but not great  underlying stats.

Man Utd clean sheet: 

Man Utd defence:  8 goals in 2 games and 2 clean sheet.   Underlying stops are top third.  Half the goals came in the game against City

Sunderland attack:  4 goals in 6 games and one of the worst underlying stats.   Fletcher injured doesn’t help

Verdict:      Man Utd clean sheet

The United defence has been fairly hit and miss but I think it will hold off Sunderland

William Hill clean sheet Verdict:   Sunderland £5.00  Man Utd £2.25

 Norwich v Chelsea

Norwich clean sheet:

Norwich  defence:  6 goals conceded in first 6 games and  2 clean sheets.   Middle of the table underlying stats.  Defence has been fairly inconsistent

Chelsea attack: 7 goals in 6 games and  disappointing mid table underlying stats.  Haven’t been firing on all cylinders

Chelsea  clean sheet:

Chelsea defence: 3 goals conceded in their first 6  games and 3 clean sheet.    Underlying stats are near the best

Norwich  attack:  4 goals in 6 games.    Underlying stats are the worst of any team.

Verdict:      Chelsea clean sheet

Can’t see Norwich scoring

William Hill clean sheet verdict:  Norwich £5.00    Chelsea £2.30

Southampton v Swansea

Southampton clean sheet:

Southampton defence:  2 goals conceded in first 6 games and 4 clean sheets.  Only Swansea have conceded more goals.  Underlying stats   are up their with the best

Swansea attack:  8 goals in 6 games and one of the best sets of underlying stats.  Are better away than at home.

Swansea clean sheet: 

Swansea defence: 9 goals conceded in their first 6  games and 2 clean sheets.    Underlying stats are  near the bottom of the  league.  Again they have played Man Utd, Spurs and Liverpool though.  Both clean sheets have been away.

Southampton attack:  5 goals in 6 games.    Underlying stats are pretty ordinary though.

Verdict:     no clean sheet

I think both teams will score here.

William Hill clean verdict:  Southampton £2.70 Swansea £4.00

Spurs v West Ham

Spurs Clean sheet

Spurs defence:  2 goals conceded in first 6 games and 4 clean sheet.  Underlying stats  are   among the best in the league

West Ham attack: 4 goals in 6 games.   Only Norwich have worse underlying stats.

West Ham clean sheet:

West Ham defence: 5 goals conceded in their first 6  games and 3 clean sheets.    Underlying stats are upper middle.  Stronger at home.

Spurs attack :  6 goals in 6 games.    Underlying stats are disappointing and mid table

Verdict:     Spurs clean sheet

Spurs defence is performing wonders and should get a clean sheet against a poor attack

William Hill verdict:  Spurs £1.91  West Ham £6.50

WBA v Arsenal

WBA Clean sheet

WBA  defence:  5 goals conceded in first 6 games and 2 clean sheets.  Underlying stats  are mid table.

Arsenal  attack: 13 goals in 6 games and   the best underlying stats of any team.  On fire I think is the expression.  Probably better away as it suits the counter attack

Arsenal clean sheet:

Arsenal defence: 7 goals conceded in their first 6  games and 1 clean sheets.    Underlying stats are pretty good but just careless

WBA attack :  6 goals in 6 games.    pretty ordinary underlying stats but recent signings have been impressive.

Verdict:      no clean sheets

I think its 2 good attacking teams and both will score

William Hill clean sheet verdict:  WBA £5.50 Arsenal  £2.75

Summary

Here’s my clean sheets and the order of likelihood:

Liverpool

Spurs

Chelsea

Man Utd

Hull

Fulham

Stoke

Here’s the William Hill odds under £3.00 to win

Liverpool – £1.67

Spurs  – £1.91

Man Utd   – £2.25

Chelsea –  £2.30

City – £2.45

Fulham –  £2.70

Southampton – £2.70

Hull – £2.75

Arsenal – £2.75

So apart from ranking differences William Hill seem to have more faith than me in the ability of City, especially, and to a lesser degree,  Arsenal and Southampton  to get a clean sheet.

They have  Stoke at £3.25 although I think they will get a clean sheet

Ok thats it thanks and hope the above helps

 

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William Hill odds are as of Friday 4th October evening  when I did this post

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