fantasy premier league DGW34 captain choice


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Here’s our fantasy premier league DGW34 captain choice article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, some stats and the FFGeek choice.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE DGW34 CAPTAIN CHOICE

FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for DGW34:

  FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE dgw34 CAPTAIN CHOICE




BOOKIES WIN ODDS

 Lets look at the win odds of 4 of the 8 teams with the best odds of their 2 games in the gameweek:

Man Utd – £1.17 and £1.65 = £2.82  Lukaku and Sanchez

Chelsea – £1.83 and £2.00 = £3.83 Hazard and Morata

Spurs – £2.70 and £1.40 = £4.10 Kane, Eriksen and Alli

Leicester  – £2.87 and £2.20 = £5.07  Vardy and Mahrez

THE BOOKIES PLAYER ODDS

 Unfortunately the anytime goal scoring odds are only available for game 1 of the double.  Here I’m going to outline the players with 2 games.  I’ll show the ATGS odds for the first game and the team odds to win for the 2nd.  Odds are of Friday evening.  ATGS dds assume they start and don’t count assist potential.

£1.75 – Lukaku v WBA and £1.65 Man Utd v Bournemouth

£1.91 – Kane vs Man City and £1.40 Spurs v Brighton

£2.00 –  Lingard v WBA and £1.65 Man Utd v Bournemouth

£2.15 – Morata v Southampton and £2.00 Chelsea v Burnley

£2.15 – Sanchez v WBA and £1.65 Man Utd v Bournemouth

£2.25 – Wood v Leicester and £3.80 Burnley v Chelsea

£2.30 – Hazard v Southampton and £2.00 Chelsea v Burnley

£2.45 – Vardy v Burnley and £2.20 Leicester v Southampton

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.

It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you. I also show how many vote so you can see how representative it is which some other polls hide

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

 fantasy premier league DGW34 captain choice

 Here’s the summary of the other main FPL advice site polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain

If you want to see the full GW34 captain poll use this link

Player Site 1 % FFGeek % Site 2 % Site 3 %
Lukaku 34 46 41 30
Kane 27 28 31 47
Sanchez 10 9 9 9
Vardy 5 4 4 1

WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?

 I’ll fill this in once I have everyone’s teams and tweet having done so

Contributor Capt Pick
Rob Reid Sanchez
Alex Ball Sanchez
FPL Word Kane
Mikael Sanchez
Scott Sanchez
Joe Lukaku
Daren Lukaku
Aashiket
Keith Hazard
Neil Kane
Geek Lukaku

Kane vs Lukaku

Firstly both have FA Cup semis 3 days after their midweek DGW34 games.  I would say Kane, given the fuss he made over the Stoke goal, will not play both games over his dead body.  Luakaku isn’t so clear.  It comes down to whether you think Mourinho wants to maximise his chances of coming 2nd more importantly than he wants to maximise his chances of beating Spurs in the semi.

 The double gameweek means that looking at it in my normal way would be too long winded and difficult to read.  So I’m going to compare the strikers with some key stats and then look at the defences vs top 6 sides

Kane v Lukaku key stats

Kanes stats are vs everyone and Lukaku’s stats are just non top 6 teams. The xG and xA stats are per 90 mins btw

fantasy premier league DGW34 captain choice

So Kane is the better striker, even when you strip out Lukaku’s games v the top 6.   No surprises there.  Lukaku has the edge on consistency and his last few results but that’s all.  Kane has penalties too and his underlying stats ignore that.

Defences vs Kane

The defensive team is the first team in the score irrespective of home v away

fantasy premier league DGW34 captain choice

So Man City apart from the Liverpool match have been good defensively on the road against the top 6 whereas Brighton at home have been a disaster against the top 6.  However with Man City, 3 consecutive losses conceding 8 goals and 3 games in a week may blunt the defence.  Man City will be playing for the title though even if likely in GW35.  Brighton are fighting to stay up.

Defences v Lukaku

The defensive team is the first team in the score irrespective of home v away

fantasy premier league DGW34 captain choice

So WBA seem to have fallen apart recently defensively while Bournemouth home or away are a defensive joke containing probably the worst defensive CB/RB and LB in the league.  Neither team have anything to play for with WBA going down, it’s just when, and Bournemouth safe.

Summary and FFGeek choice




If I start with gametime then I feel confident Kane will start both games given the fuss over the Stoke goal and how much the golden boot means to him.  If you believe that Mourinho will prioritise the FA Cup over finishing 2nd then you could make a case that Lukaku will be benched in the 2nd game.  I don’t know the answer to that position.

The bookies odds for Kane at £1.91 vs Lukaku at £1.75 surprise me, especially when you see how far behind everyone else in the Spurs team is.  They obviously don’t see that much difference between Kane v Man City and Lukaku v WBA surprisingly.

The Polls are in favour of Lukaku but if you look at Poll 1 which has the most traffic it’s less divided.

The key stats show that Kane is  the better striker even when Lukaku’s top 6 games are stripped out.  That’s no surprise.

I think on the defences they face, the 2nd game is pretty even.  The key difference is Kane in the first game is home to Man City whereas Lukaku is home to WBA.

The key questions in making the decision are firstly,  does the Man City defence, albeit with problems and tiredness, vs the WBA defence offsett the fact that Kane is the better striker.  Secondly how confident are you Lukaku will play both games.

For me I probably think the Man City defence does offset Kanes ability and my instinct is to go with Lukaku.  I also think Lukaku probably will play both games although it does nag at me.  My instinct is to go with Lukaku at the moment but I’ll tweet a final decision tomorrow morning.

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