Here’s our fantasy premier league differentials article where we look at 4 players with under 10% overall ownership who could provide good returns for the remainder of the season when it returns.
fantasy premier league differentials – 4 for the season run in
Methodology
I’ve used my last player ranking articles and my attacking player fixture ease article to identify players with good underlying stats form over the last 10 and 5 gameweeks as well as good overall fixtures to the end of the season. It is worth noting though that the quality of the fixtures will depend on how they are ultimately grouped. I’ve then picked players with under 10% overall ownership for that differential element.
Ismaïla Sarr – Watford Mid £6.4m ( 3% ownership)
Sarr came to FPL managers attention after his mammoth 19 point haul vs the Champions elect Liverpool with 2 goals and 1 assist in what was a quite amazing display. However prior to that it’s worth noting that he already had shown some form in that he had accumulated 35 points between GW18 -23 at a very impressive rate of just under 6 points per match.
What’s more these returns were no fluke. He had excellent underlying stats in terms of xG/xA as well as volumes of shots and key passes.
Diogo Jota – Wolves Fwd £6.4m (9.5% ownership)
Jota had been very disappointing for most of the season with 3 goals and 1 assist in 21 starts until an incredible run of 30 FPL points with 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 3 FPL games before the suspension.
However the reasons for optimism with Jota go deeper than the last 3 gameweeks. Most of his underlying numbers improved from last season to this season. His xG90, his shooting volumes and his key pass volumes all improved. He just had a massive conversion problem which he fixed to some extent in the last few gameweeks.
For me there is alot of reasons to be positive about his future returns with some very good overall fixtures.
Michail Antonio – West Ham Mid £6.9m (0.8% ownership)
Michail Antonio has started the last 5 games, 4 of which as a forward giving him an immediate out of position advantage in fantasy premier league. The returns in those 5 games were disappointing with only 1 returning game, albeit 11 points against Southampton with a goal and assist, at an overall points per match of 3.6.
However the underlying numbers were far more positive with reasonably consistently good xG/xA and shooting volumes and for that reason the prospects look positive. It’s just he couldn’t convert those opportunities into goals.
However he’s not such an uber differential for nothing though. West Ham have a large number of attacking midfielders and forwards and for that reason gametime will always have some sort of risk attached to it and nervousness at team sheet time. His physical presence, which is lacking in some of the other attacking players at West Ham, does give him a point of difference though which may help future selection. Also he has underperformed his xG quite significantly so you would hope this will be corrected. However his history shows marginal underperformance is not new to him so there is risk in if he can come good on those underlying numbers.
Nicolas Pépé – Arsenal Mid £9.3m (5% ownership)
After a 23 goal and 12 assist record for Lille in Ligue 1 last season it really hasn’t gone to plan for the Ivorian inverted winger. He has been a major disappointment considering he was one of the highest ranked scoring midfielders in betting odds by Betboss when the season began. However, before the last 3 games of the suspended season it had been a fairly ordinary 3 goals and 3 assists in 14 starts and 7 sub appearances. Things have turned around to some extent in the last 3 games before the season was suspended and has seen him accrue 25 fantasy premier league points including 17 against Newcastle. In those 3 matches as he has returned a goal and 3 assists. Recent matches have also seen some improvement in underlying stats although not at a particularly consistent basis. The fixtures are attractive and he has the potential if you have the funds and are willing to gamble.
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