After jumping on the fantasy premier league bandwagon to buy Bale after his hat trick and then doing the same for Walcott and obtaining a massive points boost totalling 6 (and a fortuitous 6 at that) I decided to see if history shows that jumping on the bandwagon and buying players who were very successful in the previous round has been a path to success and immediate returns
I’m sure the statisticians among you will be cringing at my sample size of 21 but I analysed the 21 times more than 10 points were scored by the 4 top scoring (excluding RVP) forwards and 5 top scoring midfielders in Fantasy Premier League and what the returns were in the next game. I then looked at how long until they got any sort of return ie goal or assist after that. I removed RVP from the analysis as his freakish consistency would distort the results. As I’ve just chosen the top scorers the instinct is to think these results should be more positive than if I had analysed all the midfielders and forwards (assuming I ever finished)
Here were the results
Ba
1. Everton A 12 points
followed by Norwich H 9 points
2. Reading A 13 points
followed by Man U H 2 points
3 games to the next return
3. Wigan H 13 points
followed by Fulham A 2 points
2 games to the next return
Suarez
1. Norwich A 20 points
followed by Stoke H 2 points
2 games to next return
2. Wigan H 11 points
followed by Swansea A 2 points
5 games to next return
3. QPR A 13 points
followed by Sunderland H 8 points
Tevez
1. Liverpool A 12 points
followed by QPR H 15 points
2. Aston Villa H 19 points
followed by Chelsea 1 (substitute not counted)
2 games to next return
Defoe
1. West Ham H 12 points
followed by Liverpool H 2 point
2 games to next return
2. Fulham A 13 points
followed by Everton A 1 point
4 games to next return
Michu
1. QPR A 18 points
followed by West ham H 10 points
2. Arsenal A 16 points
followed by Norwich H 12 points
Cazorla
1. Liverpool A 13 points
followed by Southampton H 5 points
2. Tottenham H 13 points
followed by Aston Villa A 3 points
4 games to the next return
3. Reading A 23 points
followed by Wigan A 3 points
2 games to the next return
Mata
1. Arsenal A 13 points
followed by Norwich H 8 points
2. Spurs A 13 points
followed by Man U H 9 points
3. Norwich A 11 points
followed by Everton A 7 points
Gerrard
1. Fulham H 17 points
followed by Stoke A 7 points
Hazard
1. Wigan A 10 points
followed by Reading H 11 points
2. Aston Villa H 13 points
followed by Everton A 2 points
no returns to date after 2 games started
What does this mean?
- In 11/20 games the midfield or forward player got a goal or assist after his 10 point haul – over 50% – pretty good odds if you consider that you would get a price rise in the mean time
- If you didn’t get a return most of the time you didn’t have to wait long for one to come along
- If the following game was a home game then in 9/12 times the next game saw a return
- If the following game was an away game then only 2/8 games saw a return
- An immediate return is not a long term return though, that I haven’t analysed
So what’s the conclusion? Based on this then if a leading midfielder or forward gets a 10 point haul and his next game is at home then buy him straight away and you will get a price rise plus an immediate return on your purchase.
Hope you find this interesting and that provides you with some food for thought!
