fantasy premier league early draft teams – the FFGeek latest


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Here’s our fantasy premier league early draft teams with the most recent version of my team. I talk through the process to getting there and some of the reasoning behind the picks.

fantasy premier league early draft teams – the FFGeek latest

Get additional content in the form of Podcasts, an interactive transfer and points prediction tool, 4 £50 prize leagues for the first 160 joiners and a Slack channel for discussion with members and contributors in our Patreon site.  The first $3 monthly payment gets you in the prize leagues and Slack channel for the season.

Here’s my article with my latest draft team plus some rationale behind the process



Here’s the team:

fantasy premier league early draft teams

The Process

The early realisation

Prior to the FPL  site opening I lived in FPL Utopia where I would start with Salah, Mane, Sterling and Aguero plus a City and Liverpool defender.  I realised within the time it took to put the names in the site that this was impossible.  So with the no entry sign firmly up at FPL Utopia’s borders it was back to reality and the drawing board

How many designated captains?

I prefer starting my structure with my designated captains going forward.  Last season I would normally have 3.  This season the pricing made this difficult and 2 appeared to be the maximum given the pricing.  You don’t have to have designated captains you can always just pick your team as you want and then pick the one with the balanced squad you will not doubt get as a result.  However my experience has told me that going away from the big name premium players as captain picks normally ends in tears.  So I prefer to have players who will become my captain in the team as a starting point.

The 4 candidates based on underlying stats, points per match and consistency of returns were, unsurprisingly, the 4 above from FPL Utopia.  Salah to me is ahead of Mane so knowing I only had 1 choice left it was between Sterling and Aguero.

So Sterling for me has the advantage in overall better stats and a good rest over the summer.  Aguero has penalties and allows a easy change to another premium striker if required.

The penalties for the moment swayed me so Aguero is my 2nd designated captain with Salah.

Interestingly there is a lot of people just going with Salah as captain.  They’re led by Yaniv on the FFGeek Slack discussion channel and the theory is that it gives a more balanaced squad which it no doubt does.  You start with Salah and then in the few tough games he faces you find an alternative.  Last season my captain total was 567.  An ok one for the contributors.  Salah scored 259 points so 518 as a permanent captain with say another 12 as a triple captain to take him to 530.  That means he needs 37 points through the more balanced squad/better options when Salah faces Man City etc to make up the difference.  Possible.  Definitely.  I guess it’s a matter of risk and whether you want the points on the board or think you can get more ultimately the other way.  Now Yaniv has finished the last 2 season’s in the top 10k OR so he’s definitely worth listening too but he’s a bolder manager than me.

Anyway 2 designated captains were my team starting point.

What next for Liverpool and Man City players?

Man City and Liverpool were so far ahead of the other teams last season and had such a good set of fixtures (you can see this in my fixture ease article for attacking players and defensive players) that to me 3 of each was a must. For example:

closest other team goals scored: Arsenal with 73 vs Liverpool 89

nearest goals conceded:  Chelsea 39 vs Man City 33

closest xG:  Man Utd 68 vs Liverpool 79

closest xGA:  Chelsea 38 vs Liverpool 29

nearest number of clean sheets:  Chelsea 16 vs Man City 20

So I decided to go double defence in both cases.  Bernardo or David Silva would have been the only affordable alternative attacking options to double defence and I just wasn’t sure about either.  No one was affordable and worthwhile for Liverpool so double defence it was in both cases.

Apart from Laporte who is of questionable value without clean sheets due to his ordinary attacking stats and inability to get bonus the other 3 all have attacking potential.  Mendy is a serious watchout though for gametime with Zinchenko and Angelino also LBs and with Mendy having a questionable discipline and injury history.

The good thing for City is we will see them in the Community Shield with what should be their first choice lineup.

So 6 players sorted 5 starters to go 

The rest of the players were sorted by their first 6 fixtures

Everton

Everton have a great set of opening fixtures as well as a strong defensive record towards the end of the season.  The watchout is Gueye still being in AFCON as I write this as well as attracting interest from PSG.  Gueye was 1st in the PL for tackles per game, 9th for interceptions and 6th for fouls.  If Zouma doesn’t come back that would also be a massive negative.  However Digne’s attacking potential makes him the attraction as well.  He was 3rd in FBs for xA 90 for players over 1100 minutes and 19th over all positions.  I could have gone for Coleman to save £0.5m and there is a case as Coleman finished better in my last 10 game underlying stats charts but overall Digne seems superior.

Sigurdsson is the perfect midfielder in alot of ways.  Regularly plays CAM, has set piece responsibility and penalties.  I have seen stuff which could talk of a spread around of pens but I don’t know how reliable it is.  Richarlison for me is too expensive and got as far as the Copa America final so is a rest watchout anyway.

So add 2 Everton players in so 3 starters to go.

GW1 CRY (A)
GW2 WAT (H)
GW3 AVL (A)
GW4 WOL (H)
GW5 BOU (A)
GW6 SHU (H)

King

Another penalty taker another player with good opening fixtures.  At least the first 2 which are both against promoted sides.  I much prefer Wilson but where I am in putting the team together he’s just not feasible at £8.0m.

GW1 SHU (H)
GW2 AVL (A)
GW3 MCI (H)
GW4 LEI (A)
GW5 EVE (H)
GW6 SOU (A)

Redmond

So knowing my bench would cost me £17.5m minimum (£4.0m GK, 2 playing £4.5m players plus the possibility of a non playing £4.5m) then I had £11m left to spend.

I would have liked to have spent £5.5m on Lloris as my GK but that would have meant £5.5m available for a midfielder I would be looking to play every game which is just not an option.  I mean Andre Gomes is £5.5m!  He scored 1 goal and 2 assists last season which is a joke for £5.5m.

So I decided to settle for a £4.5m GK which extended my midfield budget to £6.5m

That meant a choice between Perez, Redmond, Gross and Brooks.

I didn’t like Leicesters fixtures particularly and didn’t want double Bournemouth attack.  Gross I do like and his fixtures are good but in the end it was Redmond who has good fixtures who got the pick.  He did finish strongly last season although he’s hardly the most reliable guy

Southampton’s fixtures are:

GW1 BUR (A)
GW2 LIV (H)
GW3 BHA (A)
GW4 MUN (H)
GW5 SHU (A)
GW6 BOU (H)

So 4 good fixtures (arguably 5) and 1 terrible one.

Pope

With £4.5m to spend on a GK the pickings are slim.  The only nailed one appears to be Ryan of Brighton.  I’m not a fan of their defence.  They couldn’t keep a clean sheet (7 in total only Fulham and Huddersfield had less) when all they did under Hughton was defend.  How their defence will fare under an attacking manager is even more of a worry.

So for the moment I’ve place held it with Nick Pope of Burnley.  He is a good shot stopper and the Burnley defence has improvement potential on it.  He’s a 50/50 with Heaton but Heaton seems to be linked away and I think hasn’t signed a new contract.  This should be sorted by GW1 but it does make a non playing £4.5m GK a risk as back up unless Heaton leaves .

The promoted teams plus Southampton and Bournemouth should be clearer by GW1 which gives other options.  Not that I’m wild on any to be honest

The bench

Dendoncker is a good box to box midfielder and does have points potential.  The question is whether he will play in the tougher games or whether they fit in a more defensive player as I believe they did last season.  Also the Wolves Europa rotation.  I’ve chosen 1 non playing sub so it’s important the other 2 are secure

Hayden should be a fairly safe 2 pointer subject to the odd yellow card.  With Rafa gone though he still needs to establish selection again as the CM area is fairly crowded at Newcastle albeit not with quality.

Lastly is Connor Wickham as my non playing person.  On podcast number 4  Joe convinced me he’s worth a punt.  I don’t expect him to play GW1 but with Beneteke as the only orthodox striker at the club (assuming Batshuayi doesn’t return) then he’s 2nd choice to a pretty poor first choice so he has to have some chance at some stage.

5 playing defenders, really?  what about spreading positional risk

This is the voice on my shoulder.  I’m only 3 clean sheets down from having a nightmare gameweek each week my team plays which doesn’t seem a great situation.  Each week a clean sheet is roughly 50/50 for Liverpool and Man City and less for Everton.

The saving grace is that each defender, apart from Laporte, can get attacking returns which is some sort of hedge but the voice keeps nagging at me.

The inner debate, while I’m watching TV, having dinner, walking the dog etc etc will keep going on in my head until GW1 I expect.



The Sterling alternative

This is the alternative with Sterling instead of Aguero

Basically it means Sterling for Redmond and Aguero to Jota, Deulofeu, Ings or Barnes to fund it

fantasy premier league early draft teams

That’s it.  Everything is bound to change over time I expect but that’s where I’m at now.

Get additional content in the form of Podcasts, an interactive transfer and points prediction tool, 4 £50 prize leagues for the first 160 joiners and a Slack channel for discussion with members and contributors in our Patreon site.  The first $3 monthly payment gets you in the prize leagues and Slack channel for the season.

Here’s 2 FFGeek contributors articles with teams:

FFgeek contributors early drafts 1

early drafts 2

Interviews with Andrew Whitfield include a team as well as Rick Porters and Kev from Canada

FFGeek FPL league code

Here’s our FPL league code:

fnqq66

Social Media

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18 thoughts on “fantasy premier league early draft teams – the FFGeek latest”

  1. Hi Geek, it’s will be very interesting to see the final teams for GW01,
    I really love your as it gives you 5 strong defenders (no matter if I will go for 1 or 2 captain options I will invest a lot of money in the defense) + 2 captain options. The problem that it gives you only 11 players to play , as the 3 4.5 players just can’t give you points to take home, and the problem starts when your squad plays the big 6 or each other, for example Liverpool vs City, my squad has 2 subs that can go inside and score , still need a big monitor..
    Very tough decisions to make,

    Good luck and keep with your wonderful work!

  2. I more comment, if you are going for the first option, I prefer Tielemans on Redmond,
    but mostly I would put my money that Kane will outscore Kun this year, just look at their history of the last 5 years, Kane almost outscored Kun every year (last year was exceptional with the long injury), Kun is not getting younger and Jesus after a good Copa America will play more, as Kane is a 90 minutes player, not to mention +1.0m itb,
    I will love to hear some toughts about Kun vs Kane from you and our commentors

  3. Yaniv, glad you mentioned Kane, he doesn’t seem to be getting much love. I’m starting with him rather than Aguero mainly for the reasons you give. Spurs have a whole season at new stadium and I think they’ll be strong at home. Geek, I just wouldn’t be comfortable with that formation, it looks inflexible. I also like Tielemans. I think B Silva could have a great season.

  4. Go 442… Mendy to 4.0… Hayden to Perez/Tieleman in your second draft.Better balanced and a happier dog walk .

  5. I think Aguero has the better fixtures over the first two months and Man City score more goals but it is a close call and as an Aguero holder, I do fear Harry.

    I just feel Kane is going wider and deeper looking for the ball, he hasn’t looked quite the same player with his injuries and he is a notorious slow starter. But he knows where the net is – and he is 1M cheaper !!

  6. City and Liverpool rotate well initially so seems Aguero/Sterling is a must with Salah for captain each week. Kane is difficult to make a case for with Eriksen looking to leave and Son ban. In any case it’s easier to move Aguero to Kane than other way around.

  7. Will T, you’re last point is a good one. I agree that Aguero is more dangerous, but my instinct tells me that Kane is due a good season. He’s had plenty of rest, Aguero is going to be tired. Son being banned for first two should mean he’s out and out striker.

  8. I personally avoid Kane for the first month or so with his slow starts, moving from Kun to Kane later will be an easier pivot, or from Auba who’s also currently in my draft squad, once I see Kane start to take form he’ll find a way into my 11

  9. Geek,

    Have you considered Deulofeu and down grading Mendy or Laporte to a bench player? Watford have very good opening fixtures and it would give your team a more balanced look in a 433. I have talked briefly about Deulofeu elsewhere but I really think he will prove to be great value at 6.5m. He returned 10 goals and 5 assists in just over 2000 mins which is roughly 2/3 of the season. A full season would surely up that to 12-13 goals and 6-7 assists, and that is without any improvement. He really impressed me in the latter half of last season, and those 2000 mins are more mins than all his previous PL seasons combined so improvement can be expected.

  10. Correction: He has put in about 3000 mins previous to last season but last season saw his most game time by far.

  11. Geek, how about Redmond to Pereyra / Doucoure / Townsend? You wouldn’t lose many potential points but you’d gain 0.5m toward a better GK.

    Looking forwards to your midfielder article once available.

    I still prefer Ederson in goal rather than than doubling up on City defenders. You don’t want the risk of a non-playing premium defender!

  12. Geek, As I see it, Sterling is a better pick than Aguero for a number of reasons. First, he is younger and more in the prime of his career. Second, it is clear to me that City After last year’s exit from the CL, will prioritize that tournament over the Premier league. I think that means that Aguero will play more in champions league and Jesus will get more playing time in league matches after last year‘s exit from the CL, will prioritize that tournament over the Premier league. I think that means that Aguero will play more in champions league and Jesus will get more playing time in league matches Finally, I think that sterling will get more minutes than Aguero over the season. Fourth, as a mid he gets more points for goals and a point for shutouts. The negative to Sterling is he does not have pens. And that with CL not starting right away, Aguero may play more early on than later. Finally, it is easier to set up a team with Aguero due to the excellent mid choices at 6.5 to 7 (Tielemans, Perez, Zaha, Redmond) compared to forward (assuming one chooses King you are left with Jota or Delofeu). Whether to play Sterling or Aguero is to me the most important decision to be made in setting up your initial squad because I, like you, do not feel yet that one potential captain is the answer.

  13. With Maguire having joined Man Utd today, Dunk is the likely replacement from Brighton. I read two days ago that Dunk has his heart set on a move to Leicester.

  14. Is 3 premium defender’s at the back with sal sigi mouthino sterlo maddi midfield with king / Murray up front pheasable
    or 4 at the back

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