fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW22


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Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW22. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats.  There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS – TOTALS TO GW22

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the xG and xA team at the end.

You can also see Joseph Crilleys GW22 review which includes the gameweek xG and xA

Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. We also look at expected assists (xA) at a player level.

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 6 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent site understat.com

I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists. While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals. Kane was a great example last season. If you expected regression you would never have got it as he was a lethal finisher. They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.




TEAM DEFENCE XG

I’ve provided the xG conceded as a whole ranked by the least to the most. The teams have then been ranked home and away but without me giving the xG conceded for the home and away stats so it’s easier to follow.

xG for attack has been done in the same way

At the moment I’m just presenting data. There will be interpretation of it in the player rankings articles later.

Ovr RankTeamxGA OvrxGA Rank HomexGA Rank Away
1Man City14.7931
2Chelsea17.2142
3Tottenham18.4223
4Liverpool22.86112
5Arsenal26.6794
6Man United26.8859
7WBA27.2475
8Southampton29.43617
9Burnley30.111111
10Brighton30.16148
11Leicester30.18157
12Crystal Palace30.451015
13Huddersfield30.551214
14Newcastle Utd30.871313
15Everton31.351610
16Swansea34.761716
17West Ham34.93820
18Watford35.07206
19Bournemouth36.951818
20Stoke40.151919

TEAM ATTACK XG

Ovr RankTeamxG OvrxG Rank HomexG Rank Away
1Man City58.2411
2Liverpool47.5032
3Arsenal42.2727
4Tottenham39.9853
5Man Utd39.7945
6Chelsea36.1174
7Crystal Palace31.61611
8Watford28.16146
9Leicester27.5299
10Southampton25.69813
11Everton23.661114
12West Ham23.07188
13Stoke23.061015
14Newcastle Utd22.151610
15Bournemouth20.401316
16WBA20.151217
17Huddersfield19.541912
18Brighton19.071519
19Swansea15.871720
20Burnley15.192018

PLAYER XG AND XA BY POSITION PER 90 MINUTES PLAYED

I’ve made an arbitrary decision that the player must have played 500 minutes to be considered. The stats have not been filtered for gametime security and fitness. That will happen in the player rankings later.

DEFENDER XG 90 RANKING

Ovr RankPlayerTeamPricexG 90xA 90
1SakhoC Palace4.70.160.03
2BainesEverton5.70.160.11
3MatipLiverpool5.40.150.04
4DannC Palace4.70.150.01
5ClarkNewcastle4.40.140.03
6OtamendiMan City6.50.130.02
7AlonsoChelsea7.30.130.08
8BaillyMan Utd6.00.130.02
9ShawcrossStoke4.80.130.02
10YoshidaSouthampton4.80.110.03 


DEFENDER XA 90 RANKING

Ovr RankPlayerTeamPricexG 90xA 90
1TrippierSpurs5.30.000.24
2MendyMan City6.30.020.23
3KolasinacArsenal6.00.100.22
4RobertsonLiverpool4.70.030.21
5Alexander ArnoldLiverpool4.20.040.18
6B DaviesSpurs5.50.060.17
7MilnerLiverpool6.10.100.17
8AzpilicuetaChelsea7.00.030.16
9ZappacostaChelsea5.90.060.15
10WalkerMan City6.60.010.14

MIDFIELDER XG 90 RANKING

Ovr RankPlayerTeamPricexG 90xA 90
1SalahLiverpool10.10.820.25
2SterlingMan City8.90.630.30
3LingardMan Utd6.20.530.21
4SanchezArsenal11.80.490.32
5PogbaMan Utd7.90.420.21
6ManeLiverpool9.30.410.26
7MartialMan Utd8.00.410.39
8Silva DMan City8.10.410.36
9HazardChelsea10.70.410.20
10ArnautovicWest Ham7.00.390.14
11RicharlisonWatford6.40.390.17
12RamseyArsenal6.90.380.29
13A AyewWest Ham6.80.350.03
14Son HMSpurs8.10.340.30
15ZahaC Palace6.90.330.15

 

MIDFIELDER XA 90 RANKING

Ovr RankPlayerTeamPricexG 90xA 90
1SaneMan City8.50.300.43
2CoutinhoLiverpool9.10.290.39
3MartialMan Utd8.00.410.39
4OzilArsenal9.30.210.39
5De BruyneMan City10.20.160.37
6B SilvaMan City7.40.270.36
7D SilvaMan City8.10.410.36
8FabregasChelsea6.80.130.36
9WillianChelsea6.70.270.33
10BruntWBA5.10.030.33
11MkhitaryanMan Utd7.60.090.33
12SanchezArsenal11.80.480.32
13Son HMSpurs8.10.340.30
14EriksenSpurs9.30.230.30
15SterlingMan City8.90.630.30

 

FORWARD XG 90 RANKING

Ovr RankPlayerTeamPricexG 90xA 90
1JesusMan City10.00.930.11
2AgueroMan City11.70.910.34
3AustinSouthampton6.00.850.03
4KaneSpurs12.90.820.13
5MorataChelsea10.50.670.15
6OkazakiLeicester5.50.630.08
7LukakuMan Utd11.30.600.18
8NiasseEverton4.70.600.17
9LacazetteArsenal10.30.580.16
10RooneyEverton7.50.510.11
11MurrayBrighton5.70.510.11
12WelbeckArsenal7.30.430.16
13BentekeC Palace7.60.390.16
14C WilsonBournemouth5.70.390.17
15A GrayWatford6.30.380.12

FORWARDS XA 90 RANKING

Ovr RankPlayerTeamPricexG 90xA 90
1AgueroMan City11.70.910.34
2FirminoLiverpool9.10.370.29
3RashfordMan Utd7.60.300.31
4QuanerHuddersfield4.60.150.28
5CrouchStoke4.90.290.26
6LukakuMan Utd11.30.600.18
7NiasseEverton4.70.600.17
8PerezNewcastle5.20.150.17
9WelbeckArsenal7.30.430.16
10LacazetteArsenal10.30.580.16
11BentekeC Palace7.60.390.16
12MorataChelsea10.50.670.15
13KingBournemouth7.00.180.13
14KaneSpurs12.90.820.13
15GrayWatford6.30.380.12

Here I’ve put a team an FPL team together based on value generated by the xG and xA numbers.  I’ve taken into account injuries and only included players that have reasonable gametime security.The XG and XA team

In defence I’ve looked at the best overall defence but tried to have at least 1 cheap defender and cheap GKs.  It doesn’t take into account future fixtures but does looks at past xG and xA performance only.  It doesn’t adjust for current or historic under/overperformance of these stats.

The team is valued at around £102.5m




fantasy premier league expected goals

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