Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW26. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats. There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary. I’ve changed the format to concentrate on turning the stats into points for the different positions.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS – TOTALS TO GW26
There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the expected goals/assists team at the end. You can also the expected goals tables for GW26 itself in Joseph Crilleys GW26 review
BACKGROUND
Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.
Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.
In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.
The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com
TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK
Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away
Team defence
Ovr Rank | Home Rank | Away Rank | |
1 | Manchester City | 2 | 1 |
2 | Tottenham | 1 | 3 |
3 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 |
4 | Liverpool | 3 | 6 |
5 | Manchester United | 5 | 10 |
6 | Arsenal | 9 | 4 |
7 | WBA | 7 | 8 |
8 | Leicester | 11 | 7 |
9 | Southampton | 6 | 12 |
10 | Brighton | 12 | 9 |
11 | Huddersfield | 14 | 11 |
12 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 15 |
13 | Burnley | 15 | 13 |
14 | Newcastle United | 13 | 16 |
15 | Watford | 20 | 5 |
16 | West Ham | 8 | 20 |
17 | Bournemouth | 16 | 17 |
18 | Swansea | 18 | 14 |
19 | Everton | 17 | 18 |
20 | Stoke | 19 | 19 |
Team attack
Ovr Rank | Home Rank | Away Rank | |
1 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 |
2 | Liverpool | 4 | 2 |
3 | Arsenal | 2 | 7 |
4 | Tottenham | 3 | 3 |
5 | Manchester United | 5 | 5 |
6 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 |
7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 11 |
8 | Leicester | 9 | 8 |
9 | Watford | 12 | 6 |
10 | Southampton | 8 | 12 |
11 | Newcastle United | 15 | 10 |
12 | Everton | 10 | 13 |
13 | Stoke | 11 | 14 |
14 | West Ham | 18 | 9 |
15 | Bournemouth | 13 | 16 |
16 | WBA | 14 | 19 |
17 | Brighton | 16 | 18 |
18 | Huddersfield | 19 | 15 |
19 | Swansea | 17 | 20 |
20 | Burnley | 20 | 17 |
METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS
This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA
Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes.
Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.
Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.
Defenders attack ranking
Rank | Player | Club | £m | NPxG90 | xA | Pts |
1 | Sead Kolasinac | Arsenal | 5.9 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 47 |
2 | Marcos Alonso | Chelsea | 7.4 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 40 |
3 | Virgil van Dijk | Liverpool | 5.5 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 39 |
4 | Mamadou Sakho | Crystal Palace | 4.7 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 38 |
5 | Scott Dann | Crystal Palace | 4.6 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 35 |
6 | Miguel Britos | Watford | 4.3 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 35 |
7 | James Milner | Liverpool | 6.0 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 35 |
8 | Victor Moses | Chelsea | 6.4 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 34 |
9 | Joel Matip | Liverpool | 5.4 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 33 |
10 | Eric Bailly | Manchester United | 6.0 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 32 |
11 | Héctor Bellerín | Arsenal | 6.1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 32 |
12 | Nacho Monreal | Arsenal | 5.7 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 31 |
13 | Ben Davies | Tottenham | 5.5 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 31 |
14 | Ciaran Clark | Newcastle United | 4.4 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 31 |
15 | Kevin Long | Burnley | 4.1 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 30 |
16 | Alexander-Arnold | Liverpool | 4.2 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 29 |
17 | Maya Yoshida | Southampton | 4.7 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 29 |
18 | Daryl Janmaat | Watford | 4.8 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 29 |
19 | Serge Aurier | Tottenham | 5.9 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 29 |
20 | van Aanholt | Crystal Palace | 5.1 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 29 |
21 | Nicolás Otamendi | Manchester City | 6.5 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 27 |
22 | Davide Zappacosta | Chelsea | 5.9 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 26 |
23 | Laurent Koscielny | Arsenal | 6.0 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 25 |
24 | Dejan Lovren | Liverpool | 5.3 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 25 |
25 | Jonny Evans | WBA | 4.9 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 24 |
26 | Andrew Robertson | Liverpool | 4.7 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 24 |
27 | Kieran Trippier | Tottenham | 5.2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 24 |
28 | Ryan Bertrand | Southampton | 5.3 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 24 |
29 | Wesley Hoedt | Southampton | 5.0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 23 |
30 | Harry Maguire | Leicester | 5.5 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 23 |
31 | Kyle Walker | Manchester City | 6.6 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 23 |
32 | John Stones | Manchester City | 5.4 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 23 |
33 | Alfie Mawson | Swansea | 5.0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 23 |
34 | César Azpilicueta | Chelsea | 7.0 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 23 |
35 | José Holebas | Watford | 4.8 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 21 |
36 | Ahmed Hegazy | WBA | 4.6 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 19 |
37 | Leighton Baines | Everton | 5.6 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 19 |
38 | David Luiz | Chelsea | 5.7 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 18 |
39 | Shane Duffy | Brighton | 4.6 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 18 |
40 | Jack Stephens | Southampton | 4.5 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 18 |
41 | Chris Schindler | Huddersfield | 4.6 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 18 |
42 | Lewis Dunk | Brighton | 4.5 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
43 | Ragnar Klavan | Liverpool | 4.4 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
44 | Jamaal Lascelles | Newcastle United | 4.6 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
45 | Aaron Cresswell | West Ham | 5.1 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 16 |
46 | Arthur Masuaku | West Ham | 4.4 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 15 |
47 | Paul Dummett | Newcastle United | 4.2 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 15 |
48 | Joseph Gomez | Liverpool | 4.7 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 15 |
49 | Tommy Smith | Huddersfield | 4.7 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 14 |
50 | Jonjoe Kenny | Everton | 4.4 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 14 |
51 | Ben Chilwell | Leicester | 4.3 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 14 |
52 | Adam Smith | Bournemouth | 4.8 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 13 |
53 | Kiko Femenía | Watford | 4.3 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 11 |
55 | Marvin Zeegelaar | Watford | 4.3 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 9 |
55 | Chancel Mbemba | Newcastle United | 3.9 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 9 |
Midfield attack ranking
Rank | Player | Club | £m | NPxG90 | xA | Pts |
1 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 10.3 | 0.74 | 0.24 | 168 |
2 | Raheem Sterling | Manchester City | 9.0 | 0.58 | 0.32 | 147 |
3 | Alexis Sánchez | Manchester United | 11.8 | 0.43 | 0.30 | 116 |
4 | Son Heung-Min | Tottenham | 8.1 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 114 |
5 | David Silva | Manchester City | 7.9 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 113 |
6 | Jesse Lingard | Manchester United | 6.2 | 0.46 | 0.19 | 109 |
7 | Aaron Ramsey | Arsenal | 7.0 | 0.40 | 0.26 | 106 |
8 | Anthony Martial | Manchester United | 8.1 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 104 |
9 | Sadio Mané | Liverpool | 9.3 | 0.40 | 0.22 | 101 |
10 | Leroy Sané | Manchester City | 8.3 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 97 |
11 | Paul Pogba | Manchester United | 8.0 | 0.38 | 0.20 | 95 |
12 | Dele Alli | Tottenham | 8.9 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 92 |
13 | Marko Arnautovic | West Ham | 6.9 | 0.37 | 0.17 | 90 |
14 | Bernardo Silva | Manchester City | 7.4 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 87 |
15 | Richarlison | Watford | 6.2 | 0.36 | 0.15 | 86 |
16 | Mesut Özil | Arsenal | 9.3 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 85 |
17 | Christian Eriksen | Tottenham | 9.2 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 77 |
18 | Willian | Chelsea | 6.8 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 76 |
19 | Eden Hazard | Chelsea | 10.7 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 74 |
20 | Kevin De Bruyne | Manchester City | 10.3 | 0.18 | 0.35 | 74 |
21 | Alex Iwobi | Arsenal | 5.1 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 73 |
22 | Henrikh Mkhitaryan | Arsenal | 7.8 | 0.12 | 0.42 | 71 |
23 | Wilfried Zaha | Crystal Palace | 6.9 | 0.28 | 0.15 | 70 |
24 | Eric Choupo-Moting | Stoke | 5.4 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 65 |
25 | Riyad Mahrez | Leicester | 8.6 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 63 |
26 | Pedro | Chelsea | 7.7 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 62 |
27 | Cesc Fàbregas | Chelsea | 6.8 | 0.12 | 0.33 | 60 |
28 | Dusan Tadic | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 57 |
29 | Xherdan Shaqiri | Stoke | 6.1 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 57 |
30 | Moussa Sissoko | Tottenham | 5.3 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 55 |
31 | André Ayew | West Ham | 6.8 | 0.27 | 0.03 | 55 |
32 | Ruben Loftus-Cheek | Crystal Palace | 4.5 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 54 |
33 | Christian Atsu | Newcastle United | 4.8 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 54 |
34 | Oxlade-Chamberlain | Arsenal, Liverpool | 5.7 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 53 |
35 | Ilkay Gündogan | Manchester City | 5.3 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 52 |
36 | Jordon Ibe | Bournemouth | 4.9 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 51 |
37 | Juan Mata | Manchester United | 6.8 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 51 |
38 | Jason Puncheon | Crystal Palace | 4.5 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 50 |
39 | José Izquierdo | Brighton | 5.9 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 50 |
40 | Demarai Gray | Leicester | 5.3 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 47 |
41 | Chris Brunt | WBA | 5.0 | 0.05 | 0.33 | 47 |
42 | Anthony Knockaert | Brighton | 5.5 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 46 |
43 | James Ward-Prowse | Southampton | 5.1 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 46 |
44 | Nathan Redmond | Southampton | 5.9 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 45 |
45 | Manuel Lanzini | West Ham | 6.7 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 45 |
46 | Roberto Pereyra | Watford | 5.8 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 45 |
47 | Andros Townsend | Crystal Palace | 5.6 | 0.09 | 0.24 | 44 |
48 | Tom Ince | Huddersfield | 5.5 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 44 |
49 | Pascal Groß | Brighton | 5.8 | 0.06 | 0.28 | 43 |
50 | André Carrillo | Watford | 5.5 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 43 |
51 | Gylfi Sigurdsson | Everton | 8.0 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 43 |
52 | Matt Ritchie | Newcastle United | 5.4 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 41 |
53 | Junior Stanislas | Bournemouth | 5.9 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 40 |
54 | Matt Phillips | WBA | 5.4 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 39 |
55 | James McArthur | Crystal Palace | 4.3 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 38 |
56 | Tiemoué Bakayoko | Chelsea | 5.0 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 38 |
57 | Marc Albrighton | Leicester | 5.6 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 37 |
58 | Jacob Murphy | Newcastle United | 5.0 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 37 |
59 | Jack Wilshere | Arsenal | 5.3 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 35 |
60 | Yohan Cabaye | Crystal Palace | 5.3 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 35 |
61 | Ryan Fraser | Bournemouth | 5.1 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 35 |
62 | Sofiane Boufal | Southampton | 5.7 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 34 |
63 | Johann Gudmundsson | Burnley | 5.0 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 33 |
64 | Robbie Brady | Burnley | 5.3 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 32 |
65 | Michail Antonio | West Ham | 7.4 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 31 |
66 | James McClean | WBA | 4.8 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 30 |
67 | Georginio Wijnaldum | Liverpool | 6.6 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 29 |
68 | Elias Kachunga | Huddersfield | 5.7 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 29 |
69 | Ashley Young | Manchester United | 5.0 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 29 |
70 | Leroy Fer | Swansea | 5.2 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 28 |
71 | Etienne Capoue | Watford | 4.8 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 28 |
72 | Emre Can | Liverpool | 4.8 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 27 |
73 | Abdoulaye Doucouré | Watford | 5.4 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 26 |
74 | Aaron Mooy | Huddersfield | 5.3 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 25 |
75 | Tom Carroll | Swansea | 4.3 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 24 |
76 | Mohamed Diamé | Newcastle United | 4.6 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 24 |
77 | Oriol Romeu | Southampton | 4.3 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 24 |
78 | van La Parra | Huddersfield | 4.8 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 24 |
79 | Granit Xhaka | Arsenal | 5.2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 24 |
80 | Steven Davis | Southampton | 4.8 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 23 |
81 | Joe Allen | Stoke | 5.1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 23 |
82 | Ramadan Sobhi | Stoke | 4.5 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 23 |
83 | Andy King | Swansea | 4.2 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 22 |
84 | Fernandinho | Manchester City | 5.1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 22 |
85 | Jonjo Shelvey | Newcastle United | 5.2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 22 |
86 | Gareth Barry | WBA | 4.5 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 21 |
87 | Jeff Hendrick | Burnley | 5.4 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 21 |
88 | Scott Arfield | Burnley | 4.9 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 21 |
89 | Sam Clucas | Swansea | 4.7 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 20 |
90 | Sam Field | WBA | 4.5 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 19 |
91 | Ander Herrera | Manchester United | 5.0 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 19 |
92 | Andrew Surman | Bournemouth | 4.5 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 19 |
93 | Cheikhou Kouyaté | West Ham | 5.0 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 19 |
94 | Grzegorz Krychowiak | WBA | 4.8 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 17 |
95 | Vicente Iborra | Leicester | 5.7 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 17 |
96 | N’Golo Kanté | Chelsea | 4.9 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 15 |
97 | Jordan Henderson | Liverpool | 5.3 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 13 |
98 | Lewis Cook | Bournemouth | 4.3 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 13 |
99 | Mark Noble | West Ham | 5.3 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 10 |
100 | Darren Fletcher | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 10 |
101 | Philip Billing | Huddersfield | 4.4 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 9 |
Forward attack ranking
Rank | Player | Club | £m | NPxG90 | xA | Pts |
1 | Gabriel Jesus | Manchester City | 9.9 | 0.87 | 0.11 | 145 |
2 | Sergio Agüero | Manchester City | 11.9 | 0.69 | 0.32 | 141 |
3 | Harry Kane | Tottenham | 12.8 | 0.79 | 0.12 | 134 |
4 | Charlie Austin | Southampton | 5.9 | 0.73 | 0.03 | 114 |
5 | Álvaro Morata | Chelsea | 10.4 | 0.63 | 0.15 | 113 |
6 | Oumar Niasse | Everton | 4.8 | 0.59 | 0.10 | 101 |
7 | Shinji Okazaki | Leicester | 5.4 | 0.59 | 0.08 | 99 |
8 | Romelu Lukaku | Manchester United | 11.3 | 0.51 | 0.15 | 95 |
9 | Alexandre Lacazette | Arsenal | 10.2 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 94 |
10 | Daniel Sturridge | WBA | 7.9 | 0.48 | 0.15 | 90 |
11 | Marcus Rashford | Manchester United | 7.5 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 81 |
12 | Danny Welbeck | Arsenal | 7.3 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 80 |
13 | Christian Benteke | Crystal Palace | 7.6 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 80 |
14 | Andre Gray | Watford | 6.3 | 0.42 | 0.12 | 78 |
15 | Roberto Firmino | Liverpool | 9.2 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 75 |
16 | Peter Crouch | Stoke | 4.9 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 68 |
17 | Callum Wilson | Bournemouth | 5.9 | 0.34 | 0.10 | 63 |
18 | Jermain Defoe | Bournemouth | 7.6 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 61 |
19 | Tammy Abraham | Swansea | 5.4 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 60 |
20 | Chicharito | West Ham | 6.7 | 0.33 | 0.08 | 59 |
21 | Sam Vokes | Burnley | 5.7 | 0.29 | 0.13 | 59 |
22 | Dwight Gayle | Newcastle United | 6.1 | 0.32 | 0.07 | 57 |
23 | Joselu | Newcastle United | 5.5 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 54 |
24 | Steve Mounie | Huddersfield | 5.7 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 52 |
25 | Glenn Murray | Brighton | 5.7 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 49 |
26 | Jamie Vardy | Leicester | 8.6 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 49 |
27 | Ayoze Pérez | Newcastle United | 5.2 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 49 |
28 | Calvert-Lewin | Everton | 5.2 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 48 |
29 | Collin Quaner | Huddersfield | 4.6 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 47 |
30 | Wayne Rooney | Everton | 7.3 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 45 |
31 | Joshua King | Bournemouth | 7.0 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 42 |
32 | Troy Deeney | Watford | 6.3 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 41 |
33 | Salomón Rondón | WBA | 6.0 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 38 |
34 | Ashley Barnes | Burnley | 5.2 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 38 |
35 | Jay Rodriguez | WBA | 5.6 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 37 |
36 | Chris Wood | Burnley | 6.2 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 37 |
37 | Jordan Ayew | Swansea | 5.3 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 34 |
38 | Andy Carroll | West Ham | 5.8 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 34 |
39 | Shane Long | Southampton | 5.6 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 34 |
40 | Laurent Depoitre | Huddersfield | 5.4 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 32 |
41 | Hal Robson-Kanu | WBA | 4.9 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 32 |
42 | Wilfried Bony | Swansea | 5.7 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 31 |
43 | Tomer Hemed | Brighton | 4.7 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 29 |
AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM
So I picked a team of about £106m so not achievable by many. It is just meant to be a player menu.
Gametime was a filtering factor as was a team structure of:
2 cheap GKs picked by defensive strength
3 premium defenders. 2 cheap defs who were good at home
2 premium mids. 2 cheaper mids and 1 around £4.5m
2 premium forwards and 1 cheap forward
Here’s the team:
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