Here’s our look at some cumulative fantasy premier league expected goals summary to GW7. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS SUMMARY TO GW7
Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. We also look at expected assists (xA) at a player level. This is at a cumulative level up to GW7. Joseph Crilley reviews the numbers for each gameweek. The gameweek 7 review you can see here
Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.
Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.
In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 6 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data
Team expected goals are from twitter sites 11tegen11 and caley graphics. Player stats are from a great site called understat. All 3 sites are free and public. It’s also worth remembering that there are various organiasations providing this data and it is subjective to some degree so there maybe variations in different data you see.
I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists. While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals. Kane was a great example last season. If you expected regression you would never have got it as he was a lethal finisher. They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.
TEAM XG DEFENCE AND ATTACK
Team Defence xG
Team Attack xG
Player xG and xA by position per 90 minutes played
I’ve made an arbitary decision that the player must have played 200 minutes to be considered
Defender xG ranking
Defender xA ranking
You can see quite a clear distinction between fullbacks with xA and CBs with xG. Ben Davies is the only player in both. What is surprising is the absence of Marcos Alonso who’s numbers are 0.07 and 0.03 which are way off the pace
Midfield xG ranking
Midfielder xA ranking
3 players are in both tables. They are Sane, Richarlison and Alexis Sanchez. So we are at last seeing some multifunctional midfielders. Shame about Sane’s minutes risk and Sanchez’s price. Richarlison looks great value at £6.1m
A few players not on the schedule. Eriksen who is 0.23 and 0.23 drops off both but only just. His xA is well below recent years. He should be battling it out with the Silva’s and the Ozil’s. Hazard’s numbers are also poor although he’s been limited to 3 sub appearances and 1 game against City where they were overwhelmed.
Atsu is 0.19 and 0.17.
Forwards xG ranking
Forwards xA ranking
6 forwards are on both tables in Lukaku, Aguero, Morata, Lacazette, Sturridge and Welbeck. The cheapie strikers are limited to Okazaki and Joslelu. Alot has been made of Joselu’s inability to finish. Interestingly in the last 2 seasons albeit on limited numbers he’s outperformed his xG.
Players not on here of note are probably limited to Chicharito and Defoe. Both have pretty poor xG numbers at 0.35 and 0.32 respectively with little xA numbers.
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