fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW28

Fantasy Premier League, Gameweek analysis

Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW28. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats. There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary. I’ve changed the format to concentrate on turning the stats into points for the different positions.  There also a points per million factor added this week

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS – TOTALS TO GW28

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the expected goals/assists team at the end. You can also the expected goals tables for GW27 itself in Joseph Crilleys GW27 review

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away

TEAM DEFENCE




Ovr RankTeamxGA HomexGA Away
1Manchester City11
2Tottenham23
3Chelsea42
4Liverpool34
5Manchester United58
6Arsenal86
7WBA611
8Brighton129
9Leicester1110
0Huddersfield147
11Southampton1012
12Burnley1314
13Crystal Palace916
14West Ham719
15Newcastle United1515
16Watford205
17Swansea1713
18Bournemouth1620
19Everton1817
20Stoke1918

TEAM ATTACK

Ovr RankTeamxG HomexG Away
1Manchester City12
2Liverpool41
3Tottenham33
4Arsenal27
5Manchester United54
6Chelsea75
7Crystal Palace69
8Leicester108
9Watford126
0Southampton812
11Everton913
12Newcastle United1311
13West Ham1710
14Stoke1114
15Bournemouth1415
16WBA1519
17Brighton1618
18Huddersfield1916
19Swansea1820
20Burnley2017

 
METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes.  I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

RankPlayerClubValue £mNPxG90xA90Proj PtsPts/£m
1Sead KolasinacArsenal5.80.100.21478.1
2Victor MosesChelsea6.40.140.10436.8
3Marcos AlonsoChelsea7.20.130.09405.5
4Mamadou SakhoCrystal Palace4.70.150.03388.0
5Virgil van DijkLiverpool5.50.080.16366.6
6Miguel BritosWatford4.30.100.11358.2
7Scott DannCrystal Palace4.60.150.01357.7
8James MilnerLiverpool6.00.080.15355.9
9Ben DaviesTottenham5.60.050.19335.9
0Eric BaillyManchester United6.00.130.02325.3
11Davide ZappacostaChelsea5.90.080.12325.4
12Héctor BellerínArsenal6.10.090.09315.0
13Joel MatipLiverpool5.40.120.03315.7
14Ciaran ClarkNewcastle United4.40.110.05317.0
15Patrick van AanholtCrystal Palace5.10.070.12305.8
16Serge AurierTottenham5.90.030.19294.8
17Maya YoshidaSouthampton4.60.110.03296.2
18Nicolás OtamendiManchester City6.40.110.02274.3
19Wesley HoedtSouthampton5.00.100.04275.5
20Kieran TrippierTottenham5.20.020.20275.3
21Kevin LongBurnley4.10.040.16276.7
22Alexander-ArnoldLiverpool4.20.040.16276.5
23Laurent KoscielnyArsenal6.00.100.02254.2
24Daryl JanmaatWatford4.80.090.04255.2
25Dejan LovrenLiverpool5.30.080.06254.7
26Ryan ShawcrossStoke4.80.100.01245.0
27Jonny EvansWBA4.90.080.05244.9
28John StonesManchester City5.40.100.00234.2
29Alfie MawsonSwansea5.10.090.02234.5
30José HolebasWatford4.80.010.18234.8
31César AzpilicuetaChelsea7.00.030.14233.3
32Andrew RobertsonLiverpool4.70.030.14234.9
33Kyle WalkerManchester City6.60.020.16233.5
34Harry MaguireLeicester5.50.040.12234.1
35Ryan BertrandSouthampton5.30.050.09224.1
36Shane DuffyBrighton4.60.070.03194.2
37José FonteWest Ham4.70.050.07194.1
38Ahmed HegazyWBA4.70.080.01194.1
39Jack StephensSouthampton4.50.070.02184.1
40Jeffrey SchluppCrystal Palace4.70.050.06183.9
41David LuizChelsea5.70.080.00183.2
42Jamaal LascellesNewcastle United4.70.070.01173.6
43Vincent KompanyManchester City5.80.070.01172.9
44Aaron CresswellWest Ham5.10.010.13173.4
45James CollinsWest Ham4.30.050.05174.0
46Antonio RüdigerChelsea5.90.060.02162.7
47Wes MorganLeicester4.40.060.02163.6
48Shkodran MustafiArsenal5.40.040.06163.0
49Sebastian PrödlWatford4.30.050.03153.4
50Ben MeeBurnley4.90.060.01153.0
51DaniloManchester City5.00.060.01153.0
52Christopher SchindlerHuddersfield4.60.020.09153.2
53Joseph GomezLiverpool4.70.030.07153.2
54Mason HolgateEverton4.20.040.05153.5
55Paul DummettNewcastle United4.20.020.08143.3
56Ben ChilwellLeicester4.30.010.09132.9
57Alberto MorenoLiverpool4.40.030.05132.9
58Charlie DanielsBournemouth4.70.020.07132.7
59Adam SmithBournemouth4.80.020.07132.6
60Cédric SoaresSouthampton4.70.020.07132.7
61Kiko FemeníaWatford4.30.010.08112.7
62Cuco MartinaEverton4.40.000.0892.1
63Chancel MbembaNewcastle United3.90.000.0892.3
64Marvin ZeegelaarWatford4.30.000.0892.1
65DeAndre YedlinNewcastle United4.40.010.0692.1
66Joel WardCrystal Palace4.70.010.0691.9
67Stephen WardBurnley4.70.010.0691.9
68Simon FrancisBournemouth4.30.010.0581.9
69Florent HadergjonajHuddersfield4.50.000.0671.5
70Erik PietersStoke4.70.000.0671.5

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

RankPlayerClubValue £mNPxG90xA90Proj PtsPts/£m
1Mohamed SalahLiverpool10.40.740.2717116.5
2Raheem SterlingManchester City9.00.570.3114416.0
3Alexis SánchezManchester United11.80.440.291179.9
4David SilvaManchester City7.90.390.3411314.3
5Son Heung-MinTottenham8.10.400.3111113.7
6Anthony MartialManchester United8.00.370.3210713.3
7Aaron RamseyArsenal7.00.400.2610615.1
8Jesse LingardManchester United6.10.440.1810417.1
9Sadio ManéLiverpool9.30.400.2210110.9
0Marko ArnautovicWest Ham6.80.410.189814.5
11Leroy SanéManchester City8.30.270.409711.7
12Dele AlliTottenham8.90.320.289310.4
13Paul PogbaManchester United8.00.360.199011.3
14Mesut ÖzilArsenal9.30.190.41838.9
15RicharlisonWatford6.10.350.148213.5
16Bernardo SilvaManchester City7.40.270.268110.9
17Christian EriksenTottenham9.20.220.33798.6
18Kevin De BruyneManchester City10.30.180.39797.6
19Eden HazardChelsea10.70.270.24797.4
20WillianChelsea6.80.210.327611.2
21Alex IwobiArsenal5.10.270.207414.5
22Wilfried ZahaCrystal Palace6.80.280.157010.3
23Henrikh MkhitaryanArsenal7.80.110.39658.4
24Choupo-MotingStoke5.40.250.146311.8
25Riyad MahrezLeicester8.60.170.26627.2
26PedroChelsea7.70.250.11607.8
27Cesc FàbregasChelsea6.80.120.31588.6
28Moussa SissokoTottenham5.30.190.175510.5
29Xherdan ShaqiriStoke6.20.160.22558.9
30Dusan TadicSouthampton6.20.160.21548.8
31Ruben Loftus-CheekCrystal Palace4.50.170.195412.0
32Juan MataManchester United6.80.140.24547.9
33Christian AtsuNewcastle United4.80.210.125411.2
34Ilkay GündoganManchester City5.30.160.205310.0
35Jordon IbeBournemouth4.90.150.195010.2
36Jason PuncheonCrystal Palace4.40.220.075011.3
37Alex Oxlade-ChamberlainLiverpool5.60.160.17508.9
38José IzquierdoBrighton5.90.190.12508.4
39James Ward-ProwseSouthampton5.10.120.22489.4
40Tom InceHuddersfield5.50.220.05488.6
41Anthony KnockaertBrighton5.50.160.14468.4
42Manuel LanziniWest Ham6.70.130.18456.7
43Nathan RedmondSouthampton5.90.100.23457.7
44Roberto PereyraWatford5.80.140.15447.5
45André CarrilloWatford5.50.120.18437.9
46Demarai GrayLeicester5.30.150.13438.2
47Matt RitchieNewcastle United5.40.090.23438.0
48Pascal GroßBrighton5.90.060.28437.3
49Chris BruntWBA5.00.040.31438.6
50Andros TownsendCrystal Palace5.60.080.23417.4
51Gylfi SigurdssonEverton8.00.130.13404.9
52JeséStoke5.40.150.09397.2
53Junior StanislasBournemouth5.90.130.12386.5
54Matt PhillipsWBA5.40.100.17387.1
55Tiemoué BakayokoChelsea4.90.170.05387.8
56Jacob MurphyNewcastle United5.00.110.14377.4
57Marc AlbrightonLeicester5.60.070.20366.4
58Yohan CabayeCrystal Palace5.30.100.15366.8
59James McArthurCrystal Palace4.30.150.06358.2
60Sofiane BoufalSouthampton5.70.100.13345.9
61Marc PughBournemouth4.70.140.06337.1
62Johann Berg GudmundssonBurnley5.00.090.14336.6
63Michail AntonioWest Ham7.40.130.07334.4
64Jack WilshereArsenal5.30.100.12336.2
65Ryan FraserBournemouth5.10.100.12336.4
66Robbie BradyBurnley5.30.080.15326.1
67James McCleanWBA4.70.130.05306.5
68Elias KachungaHuddersfield5.70.130.04295.1
69Georginio WijnaldumLiverpool6.60.130.04294.4
70Ashley YoungManchester United4.90.040.18285.7
71Aaron MooyHuddersfield5.30.070.13285.3
72Leroy FerSwansea5.20.100.08285.4
73Abdoulaye DoucouréWatford5.40.100.06264.8
74Etienne CapoueWatford4.80.100.05255.1
75Oriol RomeuSouthampton4.30.100.05255.7
76Emre CanLiverpool4.80.060.11245.0
77FernandinhoManchester City5.10.070.09244.6
78Rajiv van La ParraHuddersfield4.80.100.04244.9
79Mohamed DiaméNewcastle United4.60.110.02235.0
80Ramadan SobhiStoke4.50.080.07235.2
81Steven DavisSouthampton4.70.080.07234.9
82Tom CarrollSwansea4.30.030.15235.3
83Andy KingSwansea4.20.110.01225.2
84Granit XhakaArsenal5.20.060.09224.2
85Jordan HendersonLiverpool5.30.070.07214.0
86Joe AllenStoke5.10.070.07214.2
87Jonjo ShelveyNewcastle United5.20.060.08213.9
88Scott ArfieldBurnley4.90.090.03214.2
89Sam ClucasSwansea4.70.100.01204.3
90Jeff HendrickBurnley5.40.070.06203.7
91Tom DaviesEverton5.10.080.04203.9
92Ki Sung-yuengSwansea4.90.050.09204.0
93Gareth BarryWBA4.50.060.07194.3
94Sam FieldWBA4.50.090.02194.3
95Andrew SurmanBournemouth4.50.050.08194.1
96Solly MarchBrighton4.90.060.06183.7
97Tom CleverleyWatford5.00.050.07173.5
98Nathan DyerSwansea4.40.060.05173.9
99Dan GoslingBournemouth4.80.060.05173.6
100Isaac HaydenNewcastle United4.40.060.04163.6

FORWARD ATTACK RANKING

RankPlayerClubValue £mNPxG90xA90Proj PtsPts/£m
1Gabriel JesusManchester City9.90.870.1114514.6
2Sergio AgüeroManchester City12.00.720.2914311.9
3Harry KaneTottenham12.80.800.1113410.5
4Charlie AustinSouthampton5.90.730.0311419.4
5Álvaro MorataChelsea10.40.620.1511110.7
6Oumar NiasseEverton4.90.610.1310821.9
7Shinji OkazakiLeicester5.40.590.089918.3
8Alexandre LacazetteArsenal10.20.510.16969.4
9Romelu LukakuManchester United11.30.490.15928.1
0Daniel SturridgeWBA7.90.470.158911.2
11Marcus RashfordManchester United7.40.310.308111.0
12Christian BentekeCrystal Palace7.60.430.148110.7
13Danny WelbeckArsenal7.30.420.148010.9
14Roberto FirminoLiverpool9.20.310.27788.5
15Andre GrayWatford6.30.420.127812.3
16Peter CrouchStoke4.80.260.256814.2
17Tammy AbrahamSwansea5.40.350.076111.3
18Jermain DefoeBournemouth7.60.350.07618.1
19ChicharitoWest Ham6.70.340.08619.1
20Callum WilsonBournemouth6.00.310.09579.6
21Dwight GayleNewcastle United6.10.300.09569.2
22JoseluNewcastle United5.50.300.07549.7
23Jamie VardyLeicester8.60.250.10495.7
24Dominic Calvert-LewinEverton5.10.240.11499.6
25Ayoze PérezNewcastle United5.20.170.19489.1
26Mame Biram DioufStoke5.40.260.06468.6
27Collin QuanerHuddersfield4.60.130.234610.0
28Joshua KingBournemouth7.00.190.15466.6
29Wayne RooneyEverton7.20.220.09446.1
30Salomón RondónWBA6.00.230.05416.8
31Ashley BarnesBurnley5.20.210.05387.2
32Jay RodriguezWBA5.50.200.06376.8
33Chris WoodBurnley6.20.220.03375.9
34Troy DeeneyWatford6.30.130.15375.9
35Hal Robson-KanuWBA4.90.210.04367.4
36Jordan AyewSwansea5.40.180.06346.3
37Shane LongSouthampton5.60.170.07346.0
38Laurent DepoitreHuddersfield5.30.150.08326.0
39Troy DeeneyWatford6.30.130.10314.9
40Wilfried BonySwansea5.70.190.02315.5
41Tomer HemedBrighton4.70.180.01296.1
42Manolo GabbiadiniSouthampton6.20.100.04203.2

AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM




So I picked a team of about £106m so not achievable by many. It is just meant to be a player menu.

Injuries, gametime (including consistent early substitution risk) are a filtering factor as was a team structure of:

2 cheap GKs picked by defensive strength

3 premium defenders. 2 cheap defs who were good at home

2 premium mids. 2 cheaper mids and 1 around £4.5m

2 premium forwards and 1 cheap forward

Here’s the team:

fanatsy premier league expected goals

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