fantasy premier league forward player rankings GW9


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Here’s our fantasy premier league forward player rankings GW9 article. There’s a range of stats plus commentary on each player and their next 6 fixtures. This will help you choose the best transfer for your team

  fantasy premier league forward player rankings GW9

First it’s important to remember that each player is ranked as a transfer target for this week. So while we generally look at fixtures form and underlying stats a player who’s away to Man City is going to be ranked lower than someone home to Huddersfield for example. If possible a transfer should have a good fixture first up.

Firstly there’s a table of stats. Then there’s a bit of brief commentary on each player and their next 6 fixtures.

This is the 4th player rankings article. I’ve also written a defenders and GKs player rankings article a budget midfielders article and one for premium midfielders

STATS DEFINITIONS

Fixt Ease: The ease of the mentioned fixture range from an attacking perspective. See our GW9 fixture ease article

 Mins per FPL Pt.  The amount of minutes a player takes to earn an FPL point.  The shorter and obviously lower the number is the better

ATGS – the bookies anytime goalscoring odds for GW9.  I’ve used William Hill

xG and xA per 90 – the expected goals and assists per 90 minutes played from the better than excellent site understat.com. See our underlying stats summary for expected goal information on teams and players.  See also Joseph Crilleys GW8 review with underlying stats part 1 and part 2

The schedule

Firstly I should say that I haven’t included Aguero due to uncertainty over whether he will start this weekend.  This article was written before Pep’s Friday press conference not that it’s likely he will impart anything useful anyway

fantasy premier league forward player rankings GW9

Jesus

The only thing that can slow down Jesus is lack of minutes.  The main risk of this comes if Pep decides to go for a lone striker system and only 1 of him and Aguero play each week.  Considering Pep’s only got 2 out and out strikers that doesn’t seem out of the question especially given the success of the lone striker system recently.  Great returns this season, great underlying stats.  Great fixture next, not that fixtures seem to matter.  It’s only gametime that can stop him

Burnley (H)
West Brom (A)
Arsenal (H)
Leicester (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Southampton (H)

Morata

 Given Morata’s record at previous clubs of mainly being a sub I was a little wary of his adaption to the premier league and having to be the main man at Chelsea.  Well it couldn’t have gone any better than it has so far.  6 goals and 2 assists in 5 starts (not including the Man City game) is an exceptional start.  What’s more he’s backed it up with very good underlying stats.  Even better those underlying stats portray him as a very consistent goal threat in his underlying stats in every game apart from the Arsenal game.

Played 90 minutes midweek against Roma so he must be over his injury.  2 very good fixtures next

Watford (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Man Utd (H)
West Brom (A)
Liverpool (A)
Swansea (H)

Lukaku

7 goals and an assist in his 8 full 90 minute starts.  He’s also returned a goal or assist in 6 games of those 8 which is excellent consistency.

What’s more this start has been no fluke.  His underlying stats are also excellent.  Each game apart from last weeks Liverpool game have seen him as a major goal threat.  You could also say the Liverpool game was related to the tactics rather than his ability.

Those tactics with Spurs and Chelsea next are the only shadow over Lukaku.  However it’s Huddersfield next and with his captain potential and ownership going into this week it’s better to own him than not

Huddersfield (A)
Spurs (H)
Chelsea (A)
Newcastle (H)
Brighton (H)
Watford (A)

Kane

Kane’s underlying goal threat stats are actually marginally better than the last 3 seasons when he scored 29, 25 and 21 goals so there’s no crisis from that perspective.  Turning that into goals is another matter.  6 goals in 8 games sounds good and if he played every game he would be close to 30 goals again on that ratio.

However he’s only returned goals and assists in 3 games of those 8 played.  Failing to score at home to Burnley, Swansea and Bournemouth and rendering yourself questionable as a captain possibility isn’t a way to win friends with FPL managers.  In 2 of those 3 games there was nothing wrong with his goal threat stats and he has hit the woodwork a number of times over the season.  However you can’t keep on blanking at home and expect everyone to keep the faith.

The Swansea game to me is the only game where his goal threat stats have been at an unacceptable level.  He has the ability and the history and pens.  These point to positive outcomes.  However the lack of home form can only go on so long to be rationalised.

 Liverpool (H)
Man Utd (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Arsenal (A)
West Brom (H)
Leicester (A)

Abraham

At last a cheap striker emerges with good returns backed up by good underlying stats and good fixtures to come.  Hard to put any negatives in the way for the price.  I guess you would have to point to a lack of premier league history if you were looking for negatives and a pretty defensive minded team he’s in.

Leicester (H)
Arsenal (A)
Brighton (H)
Burnley (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Chelsea (A)

Lacazette

The former Lyon man has been disappointing with 4 goals in 7 starts.  He has produced good goal threat stats in only 4 of those 7 starts and he was abysmal against Watford in GW8.  Over the season so far the underlying stats aren’t bad, just a little inconsistent.  He has the goal scoring history albeit in the French league.  Id like to say he has Ozil and Sanchez to support him but their frame of mind is questionable even though they’ve both produced good creativity stats.

The fixtures don’t help and with the other premium strikers firing he seems a difficult choice at the moment

Everton (A)
Swansea (H)
Man City (A)
Spurs (H)
Burnley (A)
Huddersfield (H)

Joselu

Joselu is basically a fixture and underlying stats gamble as these are very good.  He’s only scored twice in 7 starts and not looked like a competent finisher to say the least.

Crystal Palace (H)
Burnley (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Man Utd (A)
Watford (H)
West Brom (A)

Firmino

The Liverpool midfielder of last year who played as a central striker is in danger of becoming a striker playing as an attacking midfielder with Sturridge getting some gametime.  He certainly isn’t producing the underlying stats of a striker.  They’re more like Coutinho’s.  Putting all that aside it’s 5 games without returning and he’s looking like a sub magnet a little too.  Even pens look questionable with Klopps cryptic words about Salah and them

Spurs (A)
Huddersfield (H)
West Ham (A)
Southampton (H)
Chelsea (H)
Stoke (A)

Vardy

5 goals in 8 starts, pretty much 90 minutes each game, no European distractions and a nice price below the premium range plus the possibility of pens (missed his last 1) makes him an attractive proposition.  Also some reasonably good fixtures in the short term.

His underlying stats are also reasonably good until you look closer.  His underlying goal threat stats in the games against WBA, Bournemouth, Brighton and Huddersfield (excluding the pen) are terrible.  Could it be that teams that sit back don’t suit his pace on the counter attack style?  Not much data to make the case but just saying.

Losing Shakespeare as a manager is also an uncertainty as Vardy’s form improved markedly under his management.

Swansea (A)
Everton (H)
Stoke (A)
Man City (H)
West Ham (A)
Spurs (H)

Chicharito

Sounds like the West Ham striker will be fit and with Carroll suspended he should play as a striker.  We know he can finish he’s just not getting the chances.  His underlying goal threat stats are no where near where they should be on an overall basis.  However if you’re trying to build a positive case you would say that excluding the Burnley game when Carroll got sent off and the Swansea game and the games where he was shunted out wide (stick with me here) his goal threat against the sides you would be looking for him to score were good.

 Unfortunately that’s only 2 games, Southampton and Newcastle.  Otherwise it’s a fixture and a “I know he’s good” punt

Brighton (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Liverpool (H)
Watford (A)
Leicester (H)
Everton (A)

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