Here’s our fantasy premier league forwards DGW30 player rankings article. There’s a table of stats to help and a spreadsheet that can be filtered how you like to help you make a transfer choice
fantasy premier league forwards DGW30 player rankings
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Introduction
This is the 3rd article in the player rankings series. There’s also defenders and GKs rankings and midfield player rankings
All the stats are from the free site understat
Methodology
The ranking is entirely objective and Maths based. I’ve ordered the players by their underlying stats ranking when I convert their xG and xA over the season into FPL points for goals and assists. That figure is adjusted for the average minutes played over the season.
I’ve then provided a range of different stats to help you choose which player is the best for a transfer in.
Stats definitions
Form s/10/5. These are the form rankings for season, for the last 10 gameweeks and the last 5 game weeks. They are the average minutes adjusted rankings once the xG and xA are converted into FPL points. The lower the number the better the ranking.
Av minutes: The average minutes played over the season. Non appearances aren’t counted.
PPM – the fantasy premier league sites points per match.
Fixture ease: The first number is the ranking of how easy the fixtures are over the next 6 gameweeks . The 2nd figure is the ease over 5 weeks from GW31. This is relevant if you are free hitting in GW30+ or wildcarding in GW31
DGW30+ This states if they have a double gameweek in DGW30
ATGS: the anytime goal scorer bookies odds for DGW30+ for £1 invested.
VFM: A Value for Money calculation by dividing the theoretical season goal and assist points by the players value. The higher the better. A factor of 10 is my benchmark.
The schedule ranked by forwards underlying stats over the season
Here is the link to the google spreadsheet. You can go to file>make a copy and then sort it how you like.
The schedule is not adjusted for fixtures. You must have played 40% of available minutes ie 1,044 minute
Manchester City
Everything about City will be down to gametime. Firstly, there no chance of the title but a top 4 finish is pretty sorted. However, an FFP appeal will decide whether they can play in the Champions League next season. Therefore, it’s a questionable motivation platform as well as an even more ideal context for Pep to tinker. It’s another tense team check on your phone for every game.
It’s interesting that both Aguero and Jesus show up well despite only averaging 64 and 55 minutes respectively. That’s because both have insanely good underlying stats.
Aguero has started 6 of the last 7 games averaging 70 minutes. You would definitely take him averaging 70 minutes over the DGW I would expect. In that time he averaged 6 points per match.
Jesus has started 4 of the last 8. He averaged 53 minutes and 4.5 points per match.
In those games they played together twice. Both times Jesus played on the left of a 3. Once when Sterling was injured and again when Sterling was benched. With Sane back that’s 1 more player to lessen the chances of that happening.
Aguero is obviously first choice. However, that depends on whether in this period Pep wants to give more gametime to Jesus in preparation for the inevitable time when Aguero leaves.
Who knows? You make your choice and take your chances
Arsenal
8 points of the top 4 or 5 points off the top 5 if Man City lose their appeal means that even a Champions League place is not totally off the table. A Europa League place is there for the taking.
Aubameyang
Will be safe gametime wise. Has been performing attacking miracles considering Arsenal are 12th in total xG and he’s managing a quite low 2.5 shots per 90 from the left forward position. He’s producing miracles by over performing his underlying stats more than anyone in the league. That’s fine if it’s Hazard or De Bruyne who’ve done it year after year but Aubameyang has no such history. Are the fixtures and the over performance worth the price is the question you need to ask yourself?
Lacazette
Seems to have fallen out of favour coming off the bench twice in the last 3 and not at all vs Everton in those 3 games. Did score twice and get an assist although those returns were from 2 shots and 2 key passes so not a particularly sustainable position.
Nketiah and Martinelli
Both are £4.4m. Nketiah has only played 249 minutes this season but started the last 3, all as a CF, scoring once vs Everton. He could be useful at least as a bench player in a free hit chip. Put up exceptionally good underlying stats in those 3 games as well.
Martinelli has played more minutes, in total 656 but not started the last 3 at all which must make him incredibly risky to say the least.
Aston Villa
Avoiding relegation will be a serious motivator
An easy one here with Wesley injured and Samatta having started the last 4. He’s only scored the once and the underlying stats are ok for the price. Only competition is Borja Baston who has joined from Swansea and played 16 minutes total in the same 4 fixtures.
Sheffield United
Chasing a European place will be a big motivator.
McBurnie has started the last 7 so he should be reasonably safe. He has only scored once in that run and not in the last 6. His stats are pretty ordinary but he does have the potential to pull out the odd decent game.
Sharp has started the last 5 scoring twice but only averaging 67 minutes per game in that run. At 34 how many minutes he will play in a condensed run of games is the question. His underlying stats are ok but his shooting volumes are alarmingly low. This is the classic poacher who waits for the 1 quality chance in a game.
Mousset seems to have fallen out of favour and McGoldrick has not started a game in the last 6.
Single gameweekers
The 3 games of attraction for forwards are Chelsea v Villa, West Ham v Wolves and Liverpool v Everton. Abraham, Jimenez and Firmino are all good single gameweek forward choices for me.
The attacking teams fixture ease schedule
Here’s 2 fixture ease schedules. The first has the DGW in it and ranks the 6 gameweeks from DGW30+ in terms of easiness of defensive teams faced.
The 2nd assumes that you have used your Free Hit in DGW30+ or are Wildcarding after using your Bench Boost in DGW30+ and ranks the 5 fixtures from GW31.
Other Posts
The most consistent FPL players
FFGeek team thoughts on unlimited transfers
The FFGeek first draft free hit team
FFGeek contributors on the upcoming DGW part 1
FFGeek contributors on the upcoming DGW part 2
Fixture ease schedule for attacking players
Fixture ease schedule for defensive players
Double gameweek confirmed by the FPL site
10 top FPL Managers teams post GW38
Best fixtures until the end of the season attackers
Best fixtures to the end of the season defenders
Each teams top PPM player – Arsenal and Aston Villa
Each Teams top PPM player – Bournemouth and Brighton
Each teams top PPM player – Burnley and Chelsea
Each teams top PPM player – Palace and Everton
Each teams top PPM player – Leicester and Liverpool
Each teams top PPM player – Man Utd and Man City
Each teams top PPM player – Norwich and Newcastle
Each teams top PPM player – Southampton and Sheffield
Each teams top PPM player – Watford and Spurs
Latest news on the premier league restart
A deep dive on the 10 top FPL managers stats
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