fantasy premier league forwards GW11 – player rankings


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Here’s our fantasy premier league forwards GW11 player rankings article. There’s a table of stats to help and a spreadsheet that can be filtered how you like.

fantasy premier league forwards GW11 – player rankings

This is the 3rd article in the player rankings series. There’s also defenders and GKs player rankings plus Midfielders

Methodology

I’ve picked a selection of forwards who I think will start GW11 although where there is doubt it is mentioned in the commentary below.

I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 19/20 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. After that I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their average minutes played and their upcoming 6 fixtures.  I’ve used the amazing free site understat

Stats definitions

FFG Proj PPG: The PPG going forward using the above methodology adjusted for minutes played and upcoming fixtures

FPL PPM 19/20: The points per match from the fantasy premier league website

Rank form: Their ranking in my current form table for the position.

Av minutes: The average minutes played per match to date. Non appearances aren’t counted.

Consistency %: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Only appearance of 45 mins or more count

Fixture ease: this is ranking for attacking players from my fixture ease schedule article. See also below

ATGS GW11: the anytime goal scorer bookies odds for GW11 for £1 invested.

The schedule ranked by projected points per match

Here is the link to the google spreadsheet. You can go to file>make a copy and then sort it how you like.

The schedule is ranked by my projected points over 6 gameweeks. See above for the methodology and definitions




fantasy premier league forwards GW11

A few notes

Aubameyang and Lacazette

With Lacazette coming back I wanted to appraise Aubameyang as a left sided forward in a front 3 which seems his most likely position.  That isn’t that easy with understat as I think they are quite generous with the definition of forward over and above a CF.

Therefore I’ve looked at all the games this season and last season when Lacazette has played and used the average of those matches.  That has resulted in a drop off of his underlying stats which form the basis of these rankings.  It’s not perfect but it’s does bring into the numbers the Lacazette factor.

Lacazette’s numbers have suffered a bit due to his average minutes.  If you think he will play more then that would raise his ranking

Vardy

You may have noticed me pointing out Vardy and Leicesters rather underwhelming underlying stats this season and then wonder why he’s top of my rankings

The answer is 3 fold

  1.  Fixtures
  2. 90 minutes pretty much guaranteed
  3. His underlying stats history which is baked into the numbers offsetting the current numbers to some degree

Aguero

Dragged down by average minutes and fixtures.  His underlying numbers on a 90 minute basis are nothing short of superlative and with previous years only being amazing rather than superlative he doesn’t quite get the full effect.

Connolly

A bit difficult to model based on only a few games so quite a bit of risk is attached to the numbers.  Rely on your eyes.

Pukki

You can see from the form table below that Pukki suffered a massive drop off in his underlying stats over the last 5 games and for that reason I’ve taken him off the schedule

The form table

Here’s my earlier form table up to GW10. It ranks players by converting the underlying stats into raw attacking FPL points. There’s also a last 5 week rank in there as well. This allows you to see their expected underlying stats as well as shooting and key pass volumes.

 

 




Fixture ease schedule

Here’s how I’ve rated the teams by the ease of the defences they face over the next 6 games. Just in case you want to check out fixtures when thinking about a transfer.

fantasy premier league forwards GW11

Other posts

10 top FPL managers

Early FFGeek team thoughts

Fixture Ease GW11 

Underlying stats form tables

FFGeek contributors show their teams part 1

GW11 captain and transfer poll

Defender player rankings GW11

Midfield player rankings GW11

FFGeek contributors show their GW11 teams part 2

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