fantasy premier league forwards GW2 – player rankings

Fantasy Premier League, Player Rankings

Here’s our fantasy premier league forwards GW2 article where we rank the forwards. There’s a table of stats to help you make a transfer choice plus some narrative on each player afterwards and their fixtures

 fantasy premier league forwards GW2 – player rankings

This is our 4th GW2 player rankings article. You can see defenders and GK rankings and premium midfielders and budget midfielders using these links

Methodology

I’ve started with a selection of forwards that I think will start GW2 and have some longevity in the team.

I’ve then taken their expected goals and assist information from 17/18 and converted it into projected points through adjustments for minutes played bonus and fixtures. There’s also adjustments for any specific relevant 18/19 factors. For fixtures I’ve taken a shorter view of 3 games. This is due to the fact that I think you want you transfers to make an immediate impact if possible.

Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision

We are obviously only 1 gameweek in so it’s inevitable that the large basis of information is based on last seasons stats

Stats definitions

Pts per 90: the FPL points earned per 90 minutes played in 17/18

Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW2-4 and GW2-8. See our fixture ease article

Underlying stats ranking is from our end of season underlying stats article where projected goals are turned into raw points. It’s their rank in relation to each other not for every midfielder. Info from the excellent free site understat.com article

VFM rank. I have divided their projected points by their price to get a rough value for money assessment

ATGS GW2 – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds for the player. It assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential

The schedule





fantasy premier league forwards GW2

Aguero

The only negative about Aguero is gametime risk and that does filter down to his captaincy potential.  You would think that would be more of a risk though at Champions League time although as I’ve said before Pep is unfortunately difficult to predict.

A blank to start with v Arsenal but should have got an assist out of the game at the very least.  I guess there’s also a question about how the absence of De Bruyne will affect him as he was the leading chance creator.  However Mahrez and Bernardo are there to theoretically pick up the slack

Extremely good fixtures

Huddersfield (H)
Wolves (A)
Newcastle (H)
Fulham (H)
Cardiff (A)
Brighton (H)
Liverpool (A)

Kane

Kane has everything you want from an FPL striker.  A history of great returns, fantastic underlying stats, penalty duties and no real rotation worries or being substituted problems.  His issue at the moment is match fitness after a very short break after the Word Cup.  Add to that the niggling injury he was carrying at the end of last season which could have had a lot more rest.  He didn’t look at his best v Newcastle.  That’s what you have to factor in to the equation.  His next fixture as a transfer entry point couldn’t be better

Fulham (H)
Man Utd (A)
Watford (A)
Liverpool (H)
Brighton (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff (H)

Aubameyang

Didn’t really get a sniff v Man City although that was probably more about Man City than Aubameyang.  The guy is a proven goalscorer who after Chelsea at the weekend has a decent run of fixtures

I think the main doubt over him is,  come those good fixtures whether Lacazette plays CF and Aubameyamg moves left which isn’t ideal.  Also the penalty question would be useful to be nailed.  Aubameyang took them last season although Lacazette is an experienced taker

Chelsea (A)
West Ham (H)
Cardiff (A)
Newcastle (A)
Everton (H)
Watford (H)
Fulham (A)

Firmino

Firmino is more of a false 9 than a CF and his stats tend to show that in that the shooting stats aren’t particularly great for the price but he outshines most forwards in his assist based underlying stats.  His minutes can be an issue either from being rotated or being subbed early.  The form of Sturridge, the purchase of Shaqiri and World Cup minutes may exacerbate this although again it will probably be more of an issue around Champions League games.

Crystal Palace (A)
Brighton (H)
Leicester (A)
Spurs (A)
Southampton (H)
Chelsea (A)
Man City (H)

Tosun

Not really been in the PL long enough to have proved himself yet and the underlying stats aren’t great.  However he has shown himself to be the leading man for Everton as a CF which should help minutes played.  Add to that an ability to overperform his underlying stats and pick up bonus and you have someone who has potential.  All of this is on less data than you’d want though.

However it’s never great when the foundations aren’t that strong and as much as anything it’s the fixture which are the attraction

Southampton (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Huddersfield (H)
West Ham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Fulham (H)
Leicester (A)

Wood

Another player who’s ranking is to do with his fixtures although his PP90 is only beaten by 5 players in this schedule.  His underlying stats though are very good and he’s shown the ability to over perform them as well.  It may also surprise you that last season he picked up 20 bonus points.  That’s only 2 less than Aguero on 300 minutes less gametime.

The Europa League is an annoying distraction especially when you consider that you can normally probably bet your house on the consistency of Dyches team sheets.  Also playing in what is a fundamentally defensive side just doesn’t have a warm glow about it.

Watford (H)
Fulham (A)
Man Utd (H)
Wolves (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Cardiff (A)
Huddersfield (H)

Lukaku

Got 23 minutes off the bench in GW1 surprisingly again considering how far Belgium went in the World Cup.  He’s a good striker in a top 6 team and produces good stats, plays good minutes and gets ok returns.  It’s just £11.0m is alot for good.  Especially when the immediate fixtures could be better

Brighton (A)
Spurs (H)
Burnley (A)
Watford (A)
Wolves (H)
West Ham (A)
Newcastle (H)



Vardy

Vardy has alot going for him in terms of good fixtures coming up,  penalty duties, guaranteed minutes, good bonus collection and reasonable returns.  It’s just the non penalty underlying stats are frankly awful.  He does over perform them to some extent but not by nearly enough.

Only played 27 minutes v Man Utd after the World Cup with England so some residual starting risk.  I don’t believe Puel addressed the situation in his press conference today

Wolves (H)
Southampton (A)
Liverpool (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Newcastle (A)
Everton (H)

Morata

Has been mocked for some quite comical misses last season and obviously has a bit of a confidence problem.  Not scoring in the 3-0 win over Huddersfield and only a couple of blocked shots to show for himself can’t have helped.  However he has no history of being a poor finisher so he could ride his way out of this.

It still remains to be seen how the hierarchy between him and Giroud sits.  I expect Giroud will take minutes off him as a sub as a bare minimum.

The next fixture against Arsenal isn’t probably an ideal transfer point.

Arsenal (H)
Newcastle (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Cardiff (H)
West Ham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Southampton (A)

Austin

Has the ability to score goals that’s for sure and the stats back that up.  Just is a big minutes risk with 4 strikers at the club not only as a starter but also as a substitution risk as we saw with his 71 minute blank in GW1.

Everton (A)
Leicester (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Brighton (H)
Liverpool (A)
Wolves (A)
Chelsea (H)

Zaha

After the Liverpool match Zaha has a decent run of fixtures.  You can also pretty much guarantee he will play 90 minutes or so.  The negative areas are positioning risk in that he could suddenly play as a winger rather than a striker.  The other being a complete inability to get bonus points. Only 8 last season despite 9 goals and 7 assists.  This proved the case again v Fulham with his nil bonus point assist in the 2-0 win.

Liverpool (H)
Watford (A)
Southampton (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Newcastle (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Wolves (H)

Wilson

Plays as a CF, could have pens (although his miss in GW1 may have changed that), stats aren’t too bad and has shown he can over perform them and also doesn’t too bad on bonus.  Also not particularly  expensive. Fixtures are reasonably good too.

He has 2 negatives though.  The first is minutes in that his minutes in terms of being subbed and starting as a sub last season were all over the place.  That’s not surprising when you have the tinkerman extraordinaire in charge.  The 2nd is dry spell of 12 straight games last season will linger heavily in the minds of many an FPL manager

West Ham (A)
Everton (H)
Chelsea (A)
Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Watford (A)

Arnautovic

Despite the low ranking I am a fan of Arnautovic.  He’s a very good striker it’s just that there are a few bad fixtures in there, he also has minutes and position risk with Chicharito in the team and his bonus collection could be better as well.

Still fundamentally his returns and underlying stats are good.  Great fixture next.

Bournemouth (H)
Arsenal (A)
Wolves (H)
Everton (A)
Chelsea (H)
Man Utd (H)
Brighton (A)

King

I see King as a sort of a lower grade version of Firmino in the way that he isn’t really a CF and he’s more of an all round player rather than a normal CF in that his shooting stats aren’t great to say the least but his assist stats are only bettered by Firmino in this lot.

A pretty quiet start v Cardiff

West Ham (A)
Everton (H)
Chelsea (A)
Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Watford (A)

Gray

Gray has good fundamental underlying stats but he’s not very secure minutes wise and that was shown with 73 minutes in GW1 after a pretty underwhelming performance.  He also struggles to attract bonus and that has been reflected in his returns.

Fixtures are a bit mixed

Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Spurs (H)
Man Utd (H)
Fulham (A)
Arsenal (A)
Bournemouth (H)

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