Here’s our fantasy premier league forwards GW33 player rankings article. There’s a table of stats to help and a spreadsheet that can be filtered how you like to help you make a transfer choice
fantasy premier league forwards GW33 player rankings
This article was written before Wednesdays games and doesn’t include stats from those games
This is the 3rd article in the player rankings series. There’s also defenders and GKs rankings and midfield player rankings
All the stats are from the free site understat
Methodology
I’ve ordered the players by their underlying stats ranking when I convert their xG and xA over the season into FPL points for goals and assists. That figure is adjusted for the average minutes played over the last season. Players with current penalty responsibility get that included in their stats. Those currently without eg Rashford don’t
I’ve then provided a range of different stats to help you choose which player is the best for a transfer in.
Stats definitions
Form s/10/5. These are the form rankings for season, for the last 10 gameweeks and the last 5 game weeks. They are the average minutes adjusted rankings once the xG and xA are converted into FPL points. The lower the number the better the ranking.
Av minutes: The average minutes played over the season. Non appearances aren’t counted.
PPM – the fantasy premier league sites points per match.
Fixture ease: this is ranking for attacking players over the next 6 gameweeks from my fixture ease schedule article. The lower the number the better the fixtures
ATGS: the anytime goal scorer bookies odds for GW33 for £1 invested.
VFM: A Value for Money calculation by dividing the theoretical season goal and assist points by the players value. The higher the better.
The schedule ranked by forwards underlying stats over the season
Here is the link to the google spreadsheet. You can go to file>make a copy and then sort it how you like.
The schedule is not adjusted for Fixtures however the players fixture ease ranking is included along with a load of other stats. 1,152 ( approx 40%) minutes required
Players who are not in the schedule due to injury or gametime risk
Injury – Aguero, Wood, Wesley, Haller, Barnes, Deulofeu, Rodriguez
Gametime risk – Abraham, Lacazette
Suspension – C Wilson
Comments on a few players
The stats don’t include Wednesdays games
Firmino
The first thing that will strike most people will be the fact that a player with a points per match of 4.3 and who has gone 6 games without a return is top of the rankings. The answer is that up until the last 5 gameweeks he was producing incredible underlying stats without returning. In fact no one comes even close to Firmino in undershooting his underlying stats. He’s scored 8 goals vs an expected goals tally of 15.6. While he has a bit of a mixed history in meeting his underlying stats this is a complete outlier. Surely a correction has to come
Jamie Vardy
Only Aubameyang, Ings and perennial over achiever De Bruyne have outperformed their underlying stats more than Vardy. He does have the history to show that it is potentially achievable.
Jesus
It’s the 55 minute average playing time which kills his ranking and it shows how good they are that he’s 4th in this table over the season despite that. The last 10 and 5 gameweeks have had even more extreme low average minutes. To put Jesus in the team you need to believe he will get good minutes in absence of Aguero and that he can buck his history of being unable to put the ball in the net anything like efficiently.
Kane
Over the season the stats are incredibly ordinary. However in the last 5 games big performances against Norwich and West Ham have helped him to the top of the last 5 rankings. Is that a corner turned or just poor opposition helping him.
Ings and Aubameyang
Both are producing pretty ordinary underlying stats and both are massively overperforming them without showing historically that they have the ability to do so. Make of that what you will
Greenwood and Nketiah
Both have not played enough minutes to qualify. Greenwood has good volumes but his xG90 is very ordinary. Nketiah has lower volumes and lower than you’d like for a forward but an exceptionally good xG90.
A fixture ease schedule for attacking players
Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the defences they face over the next 6 gameweeks from our fixture ease article.
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Defender and GK player rankings GW33+
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