fantasy premier league – constructing an FPL team using FPL value for money principles


Here’s a fantasy premier league article where we construct an FPL team using the principles of value for money to establish where to invest our funds.

fantasy premier league – constructing an FPL team using FPL value for money principles

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Methodology

The methodology I’m going to use is very basic.

I’m taking the players  points per match and then dividing it by their value to get a factor.  The higher that factor is the better value for money they are.

Some warnings.  I may have adjusted 1 or 2 PPMs for sub unusual amounts of sub appearances distorting it.  The promoted defenders I’ve used proxy’s although I’ve not attempted to do it for attackers new to the premier league.  I’ve also not adjusted for changes of position such as Perez or Deulofeu.

I have then ranked them from highest to lowest by the VFM factor and then picked out players from that as explained below.  Fixture strength is not taken into account.

The ranking is as below shown on this google spreadsheet which you can re filter if you like by using the link.  Sorry it goes on for a while.



PlayerPositionPricePPMPrice/PPM
Alexander ArnoldDEF7.06.40.91
van DijkDEF6.55.50.85
RobertsonDEF7.05.90.84
GuaitaGK5.04.00.80
LlorisGK5.54.40.80
TrippierDEF5.54.40.80
LaporteDEF6.55.10.78
DigneDEF6.04.70.78
ColemanDEF5.54.30.78
SchärDEF5.03.90.78
AlissonGK6.04.60.77
David LuizDEF6.04.60.77
PickfordGK5.54.20.76
FabianskiGK5.03.80.76
WalkerDEF6.04.50.75
TielemansMID6.54.80.74
EdersonGK6.04.40.73
RoseDEF5.54.00.73
KeaneDEF5.53.90.71
van AanholtDEF5.53.90.71
KepaGK5.53.90.71
AzpilicuetaDEF6.04.20.70
PereiraDEF6.04.20.70
WilsonFWD8.05.60.70
RyanGK4.53.10.69
FosterGK5.03.40.68
DubravkaGK5.03.40.68
LascellesGK4.53.00.67
DummettDEF4.53.00.67
DuffyDEF5.03.30.66
LenoGK5.03.30.66
BolyDEF5.03.30.66
HolebasDEF5.03.30.66
JimenezFWD7.54.80.64
FraserMID7.54.80.64
AkéDEF5.03.20.64
PatrícioGK5.03.20.64
SchmeichelGK5.03.20.64
IngsFWD6.03.80.63
DohertyDEF6.03.80.63
BrooksMID6.54.10.63
DeulofeuFWD7.04.40.63
MilivojevicMID7.04.40.63
Adam SmithDEF4.52.80.62
JanmaatDEF4.52.80.62
PereyraMID6.03.70.62
KingFWD6.54.00.62
AndersonMID7.04.30.61
FredericksDEF4.52.70.60
BalbuenaDEF4.52.70.60
JotaFWD7.04.20.60
SigurdssonMID8.04.80.60
PogbaMID8.55.10.60
MartialMID7.54.50.60
W ProwseMID6.03.60.60
ChilwellDEF5.53.30.60
StevensDEF5.03.00.60
PerezMID6.53.80.58
de GeaGK5.53.20.58
CathcartDEF4.52.60.58
MariappaDEF4.52.60.58
SterlingMID12.06.90.58
David SilvaMID7.54.30.57
VardyFWD9.05.10.57
MurrayFWD6.03.40.57
JonnyDEF5.53.10.56
AlderweireldDEF5.53.10.56
ShawDEF5.53.10.56
TarkowskiDEF5.02.80.56
MkhitaryanMID7.03.90.56
Sadio ManéMID11.56.40.56
DunkDEF4.52.50.56
O’ConnellDEF4.52.50.56
Krul GKGK4.52.50.56
DeeneyFWD6.53.60.55
RedmondMID6.53.60.55
RicharlisonMID8.04.40.55
MouraMID7.54.10.55
MaguireDEF5.53.00.55
VertonghenDEF5.53.00.55
Mo SalahMID12.56.80.54
MaddisonMID7.03.80.54
BernardoMID8.04.30.54
ValeryDEF5.02.60.52
SokratisDEF5.02.60.52
BennettDEF5.02.60.52
KaneFWD11.05.70.52
AubameyangFWD11.05.70.52
EriksenMID9.04.60.51
EganDEF4.52.30.51
LindelöfDEF5.52.80.51
AgueroFWD12.06.10.51
BarnesFWD6.53.30.51
CoadyDEF5.02.50.50
LacazetteFWD9.54.70.49
FirminoFWD9.54.70.49
GrossMID6.53.20.49
TaylorDEF4.52.20.49
WillianMID7.03.40.49
MustafiDEF5.52.60.47
GodfreyDEF4.52.10.47
AaronsDEF4.52.10.47
WoodFWD6.53.00.46
BertrandDEF5.02.30.46
RashfordFWD8.53.90.46
AlliMID8.53.80.45
VestergaardDEF5.02.20.44
Calvert lewinFWD6.02.60.43
LewisDEF4.51.90.42
ZimmermanDEF4.51.90.42
MeeDEF5.02.10.42
De BruyneMID9.53.10.33

The resulting team

Here’s the resulting team as explained below:



FPL VALUE FOR MONEY

General points

If you’re looking for a simple reason why people are going big in defence then this is a pretty good explanation.  It’s 16 places before you get to an attacking player

Captains

To have any sort of realistic team in my mind you need a designated captain or 2.  For this I ignored VFM as I want maximum points and went for the 2 highest PPMs who were Salah and Sterling.

The VFM picks started after that

Goalkeepers

I’m only going for 1 GK and that last season was Guaita.  With Wan Bissaka gone and at least Tomkins an injury risk for the start of the season you could downgrade him and have gone for Lloris who you could argue could be upgraded due to the acquisition of Ndombele but I stuck with it anyway.

I’ve used a non playing £4.0m as a reserve

Defence

With the 3 Liverpool defenders well above the rest I took the top 2 of Alexander Arnold and Van Dijk.  With Trippier gone then came Laporte and Digne.  I’ve said before with Gueye and Zouma gone you could definitely downgrade the Everton defence but for this article I haven’t taken that additional subjective step.

I did keep it to one Everton defender though which meant the next player was Schar.  Again you could make a case for over achievement with Benitez gone and some of the PPG coming from 1 particular screamer.

Midfield and Forwards

First on the list with a PPG of £4.8m against a value of £6.5m was Tielemans.

Wilson was the next on the list despite his price hike. Both him and Fraser had massive steps up on previous seasons underlying stats and you could question their sustainability but there’s not doubt how impressive the PPM is.

Jimenez was next just ahead of the aforementioned Fraser who could easily have made it too.

That left only 3 places  which realistically had to be bench places.

They were filled not through the table but my picks

So what do I think of the team?

Not bad at all considering fixtures haven’t been taken into account.  I question Digne for the reasons mentioned above.  Also Guaita and Schar as I mentioned above.

Hope you found it interesting

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2 thoughts on “fantasy premier league – constructing an FPL team using FPL value for money principles”

  1. 5 at the back seems attractive at the start of the season but for the reasons mentioned above but to do well you need to be able to pick out the under priced players this season. So people who got Jiminez, Doherty, Wilson etc, or Salah and Sterling the year before, would’ve been the ones near the top rather than with a team like this. Good article though gives food for thought.

  2. Interesting stuff, thanks. I made a similar table, based on PP90mins/price and came out with slightly different values although roughly the same outcome.

    A few points – you still have Deulofeu and Jota listed as 7.0 rather than 6.5. Although this error slightly accounts for the fact they are now fwds so will be less value for money!

    Also another factor that is maybe worth considering is penalty saves. Given the lower scoring nature of goalies but a high reward for a pen save, the likes of LLoris and Pickford who saved 2-3 penalties get a fair old hike for that which will not be predictable when carried on to the next year.

    If Ings stays fit (big if) and if Perez/Tielemans carry over last years form to this season, then those guys will be insanely good value picks.

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