fantasy premier league free hit – Jordan Sadler shows his blank GW31 free hit team.


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Here’s the first of a couple of contributor articles where FFGeek contributors show us their current fantasy premier league free hit team.  Firstly there’s Jordan Sadler who currently has an overall rank of 4k

fantasy premier league free hit – Jordan Sadler shows his blank GW31 free hit team.

Background

As per the FPL rules,  the free hit chip means you can make unlimited free transfers for a single Gameweek. At the next deadline your squad is returned to how it was at the start of the Gameweek.  You will lose any transfers made prior to activating the free hit chip and if you carried over 2 free you will lose the ability to make the 2nd free transfer going into the following gameweek.

GW31, due to it’s clash with the FA Cup quarter finals, has suffered 5 postponed games which means that there are only 5 fixtures within it:

fantasy premier league free hit

I used my 2nd wildcard in GW22.  I have been setting my team up with a balance between the upcoming double gameweek 32 and another blank week 33 which clashes with the FA Cup semi final.  Free hitting allows me to focus on those gameweeks without the distraction of this big blank week.

I’ve activated my free hit. As I said above, I do not have a wildcard left and my current plan is to triple captain in GW32 and bench boost in GW35.

The Free Hit Team

Here’s the team as it stands:





My overall rank currently is 4.7k and this team value is £103.7m (though my pre Free Hit value was £105.5m).

The Players

Fabianski (£4.8m)

West Ham definitely have the easiest fixture of the week against Huddersfield at home. Their clean sheet odds are 17/20 and so with Fabianski being one of the best value goalkeepers in the game he was a very obvious choice.

Speroni (£3.9m)

I’ve picked Speroni simply because he’s £3.9m and I can’t imagine Fabianski not playing.

Robertson (£6.9m)

Liverpool have probably the second best fixture of the gameweek against Fulham away with clean sheet odds of 10/11. Robertson is the highest scoring defender in the game with 169 points consisting of 17 clean sheets, 9 assists and 24 bonus points so he was an obvious pick for a Liverpool side with 4 clean sheets in their last 5.

Luiz (£5.9m)

Chelsea have been incredibly inconsistent lately so this is a pick purely based off clean sheet odds. They do have a tough fixture with them playing Everton away but they do have the third best clean sheet odds of the week with 6/4. With Luiz being the cheapest Chelsea defender and with him possessing some attacking quality as well I feel he is probably the best pick.

Rice (£4.6m)

As previously stated, West Ham have the easiest fixture this week and the best clean sheet odds so I thought I’d double up on their defence. I went with Rice because he plays as a defensive midfielder and is very much nailed in the starting line up.

Daniels (£4.1m)

With Daniels being only £4.1m and starting the last two gameweeks I felt he was the ideal 1st choice bench player incase any of my starting XI don’t play. He also has a pretty good fixture at home versus Newcastle so a clean sheet is definitely a real possibility.

Stankovic (£3.9m)

Stankovic has been playing a DM for Huddersfield lately and so I thought at £3.9m he was the ideal bench player so I could maximise my funds for my starting XI.



Salah (£13.4m)

Probably the biggest factor in my 5 red arrows in a row but he’s just too good to drop as when the penny drops he’s absolutely devastating. As previously mentioned, Liverpool have a great fixture away against Fulham. Fulham have conceded the most goals in the league by a considerable amount so I would definitely expect a comfortable Liverpool victory. Salah has been unlucky lately though, he easily could have had 2 goals and 2 assists last game so hopefully things will even out this week for him (and me).

Hazard (£10.8m)

With Chelsea having a leaky Everton side to play and with their being limited premium players available this week I think Hazard is a must in any free hit side this week. On his day he’s probably the best player in the league and he has good underlying stats which he consistently overachieves on.

Mane (£9.9m) (C)

8 goals in his last 8 for Sadio Mane, now the joint top non penalty goalscorer in the league. The guy has been excellent lately and he has been playing in a very advanced position compared to earlier in the season which I think is really helping with his goal tally. As with Salah, he has an excellent opponent this week which you’d expect him to return well against and as with Hazard I really think he should be in any free hit team while he’s in the form he is.

Fraser (£6.2m)

He has a good fixture at home against Newcastle and after 8 blanks in a row Fraser finally returned with a goal and an assist last week. His stats with Wilson playing are 6 goals and 10 assists in 22 games, without Wilson they’re 0 goals 0 assists in 8 games. So I definitely think now Wilson is back he’s well worth the investment at his price.

Schneiderlin (£4.2m)

Schneiderlin performed pretty well for Everton against Liverpool and Cardiff so I think he may be reinstated against Chelsea over Gomes after a poor 3-2 loss to Newcastle last week. With him being £4.2m he’s the ideal 3rd choice bench option as like with Stankovic he allows me to maximise my starting XI.

Higuain (£9.6m)

Personally, I’m not a huge fan of Higuain but with there being limited premium players this week I felt he was probably worth a punt. His underlying stats aren’t bad and he is scoring a goal every other game at the moment so I think he’s worth a shot against a defensively suspect Everton side.

Vardy (£9.0m)

Excellent underlying stats, 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 3 under Rodgers and is playing against an out of form Burnley side, what more could you want?

Wilson (£6.4m)

Out for 6 games and comes back with a goal and assist. His underlying stats are excellent and he’s without a doubt one of the best value strikers in the game. 11 goals and 9 assists in 1816 minutes is an unbelievable return for any player, never mind one who’s only £6.4m. I think outside of Man City’s main front 3, he has the best mins per G/A in the entire league which is just incredibly (though correct me if I’m wrong).

Other players to consider

Alexander Arnold (£5.5m)

A great cheap alternative to Robertson if you can’t afford him.

Pereira (£5.4m)

Has attacking quality and a decent enough fixture so could be a good pick.

Diop (£4.4m)

Slightly cheaper alternative to Rice if you need that extra £0.2m. You could even risk Ogbonna (£4.2m) if you wanted, though his place may be under threat by Balbuena, it’s hard to know.

Anderson (£7.4m)

Out of form with only 1 assist in his last 11 but does have a poor Huddersfield side.

Brooks (£5.1m)

A good cheap alternative to Fraser if you’re struggling for funds.

Tielemans (£6.0m)

Good underlying stats and 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 3.

Richarlison (£6.5m)

Tough fixture but scored last game and looked very bright against Liverpool when coming on in the second half.

Almiron (£6.0m)

Got his first return last week and has looked bright in pretty much every game I’ve seen of him. Decent underlying stats as well.

Firmino (£9.2m)

2 goals last game (though were on a plate for him), could be a good differential over Salah if you want to spread funds elsewhere.

Rondon (£5.9m)

Cheap and has 2 goals 2 assists in his last 4 so could be worth a shot if you want a nice differential.

Some honourable mentions: Alisson, Matip, McNeil, Sigurdsson, Maddison, Perez, Barnes and Chicharito.

There’s also out FPL form article and  our best underlying stats from GW30 only

See also our 10 top FPL managers article and the early FFGeek team articles and last season’s 715 OR finisher Andrew Ferguson’s team

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15 thoughts on “fantasy premier league free hit – Jordan Sadler shows his blank GW31 free hit team.”

  1. Strong team and very similar to my FH31 team. At the moment I’ve got Chilwell instead of Rice (Rice is first substitute). What are your thoughts on Chilwell? I noticed he didn’t even get an honourable mention!

    • Yeah Chilwell isn’t a bad pick. The honourable mentions are just a few other players off the top of my head, Chilwell definitely should be on that list. I originally had Pereira in my team but it’s hard to trust that Leicester defence after conceding 4 in their last 3 under Rodgers, especially after seeing the shambolic Liverpool defence under Rodgers for 3 years.

  2. What about a punt on big arnie, hatrick against terriers incoming. He will likely be my “differential” against Vardy. TAA seems to be better than Robertson of late attack wise.

    • Not been starting that’s why I didn’t recommend him. Trent probably has but with the UCL mid week there’s always the risk of Milner playing on the weekend instead. Though Robertson would have probably scored last week if Mane hadn’t taken the ball literally off his toe and put it onto the bar.

    • Yeah somewhat but he’s a top finisher and when he does get chances they’re generally good ones. 4 shots 1.06 xG against Fulham, 1 shot 0.29 xG at Watford and 4 shots 0.72 xG against Brighton scoring 2 goals, 1 goal and 1 goal respectively.

  3. Your team is the same as mine except for Azpi instead of Luiz. My bench includes Daniels, Ogbonna and Bacuna. But I captain Salah, still not sure on this.

  4. Thanks for the article Jordan, I have also used my second wildcard so helpful seeing your free hit team. In mine I have Barnes instead of Higuain and Ake instead of Daniels but otherwise the same. Am torn on whether to start Ake or Luiz though!

  5. Hi Jordan, great article as usual. Some help please with my decision to Free Hit GW 31 or 32 please?

    I started out with a basic assumption: don’t use a chip in week 32 because captaining Aguero against Fulham and Cardiff is too good to pass up. But it all comes down to how many fixtures my team plays against what strength of the opponents.

    Using your team as an example, I added up all the opponent fixture difficulties for GW 31 and 32 for two scenarios, Free Hit 31 or Free Hit 32, making assumptions for 1 or 2 transfers that seemed obvious. I used Ben Crellin’s fixture difficulties and forecasts of double gameweek fixtures.

    It came out very close, the scenario to FH31 was 119 (including using a triple captain in week 32) but the scenario to FH32 was 123. I don’t pretend these are perfectly accurate, there is estimation involved. But still, it was pretty close but free hitting week 31 was better by 2 games with an average opponent fixture difficulty of 2.

    Just for that, it seems better for you to free hit week 31. But what are the other benefits?

    For my team FH31 was 112 and FH32 was 119, again close but favoring FH32 by 2 games extra against an opponent with a fixture difficulty of 3.5.

    Additionally, waiting and holding the free hit chip until week 32 might give more flexibility, maybe allowing holding it past week 32?

    I’m also wrestling with GW33. Is there an advantage in week 33 to free hitting in week 31 vs 32?

    In sum, it seems pretty close either way, what am I missing that might make the decision more obvious?

    Thanks!

    • Apologies for the delay in replying mate and thank you for the lovely comment. Truthfully mate without seeing your team and doing an in depth analysis of the fixtures etc it is hard to know which would be best. As you said, the main benefit for me with FH in GW31 is the triple captaincy in GW32 of Aguero or Sterling vs Cardiff and Fulham which for me is too good to refuse. As you’ve demonstrated, the difference fixture quantity and difficulty wise is quite minimal (though I would assume you’ve taken the triple captaincy into account for that). For me it all depends on your team and from the sounds of things I think there’s a very small edge towards FH31 for you. My advice mate is just go with your gut, it’s what I’ve done most of the season and it’s done me pretty well! Hope that helps bud and good luck this week.

  6. I’ve got Salah, Mane and Robertson. Would it be madness to captain Robertson? I feel it’s too hard to predict which of the other 2 will actually score, whereas Robertson is likely to get a CS and possibly an attacking return too?

    • I’d actually be careful with Robertson with him picking up a ban in the UCL. This could be the ideal game for Klopp to give someone else some minutes at LB in prep for Porto next month!

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