fantasy premier league GW11 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our fantasy premier league GW11 tips article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the most transferred in players (bandwagons) and most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league GW11 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships

Stats definition:

PP90: The FPL points per 90 minutes played for 18/19.

Av mins last 4: The average minutes played in the last 4 games. Coming on as sub or not being played for non injury related matters will count

Consistency: the number of times a goal or assist has been returned in a match as a proportion of the total starts.

ATGS/CS* odds GW11: Anytime goal scorer odds or clean sheet odds* for defenders for GW11.

Fixture ease: The fixture ranking by difficulty for GW11-16 and GW11-13. See our fixture ease article

Prices as of Tuesday 30th October

The Bandwagons

These are the 5 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek.



fantasy premier league GW11 tips

Wilson

Wilson has scored 5 goals and 7 assists in his 10 starts and played 90 minutes in all but 1 game.  His underlying stats are also very good especially when you bear in his relatively modest price.   In fact if anything he should have had more goals as he’s under performed the stats.  History doesn’t show this as an issue for him so you’d hope for a correction

If you were looking for negatives you’d probably focus on the fact that the fixtures are on the turn although Manchester United as a next fixture aren’t the resolute defensive force they once were

Man Utd (H)
Newcastle (A)
Arsenal (H)
Man City (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Liverpool (H)

Barkley

After only playing 129 minutes last season Barkley has come back into the frame with goals in each of his last 3 matches and 3 assists as well.   The games  involved 2 starts and 1 sub appearance for an incredible 36 FPL points backed up by some pretty eye wateringly good underlying stats.

There are a few watchouts.  Obviously sustainability is a question given that these stats are way above his Everton stats.  To be fair Chelsea are a much stronger team it’s just the unknown element of the sustainability of recent performances.

The 2nd is competition for his place which was recently held by Kovacic who has performed pretty well himself.  Even if he holds on to the position he could see his minutes eaten by substitutions.

Lastly there’s his position of CM which in the midfield 3 of 4-3-3.  This can be less of an issue when Chelsea dominate the ball but it still means he won’t be on the shoulder of the last defender like Hazard and Willian will be to a greater extent in the front 3.  You probably have to go down to about 10 midfielders in total  FPL before you get to Pogba and Bernardo Silva to find players that play as CMs regularly.

However lets not forget that we have a player with attacking ability in a title chasing side for £5.8m which is an absolute steal.  This mitigates the risk to a large extent

Crystal Palace (H)
Everton (H)
Spurs (A)
Fulham (H)
Wolves (A)
Man City (H)

Pereyra

After a 5 game barren spell between GW4-8 Pereyra has returned with 2 goals in the last 2 games.  The first at Wolves and the 2nd at home to Huddersfield.  That takes his total to 5 goals in 10 starts for the season.  9 of the 10 starts have seen him play 90 or virtually 90 minutes.

His underlying stats and his shot/key pass volumes are pretty ordinary and like his returns very hit and miss. However if you strip out the games against Man Utd, Spurs and Arsenal it paints a much rosier picture.  2 good fixtures next.

Newcastle (A)
Southampton (A)
Liverpool (H)
Leicester (A)
Man City (H)
Everton (A)

Mane

Mane started the season with a bang and 4 goals in the first 4 games.  Then came 4 consecutive blanks in games that involved Spurs, Chelsea and Man City.  However those that stuck with him were rewarded with 2 goals and 15 FPL points v Cardiff.  He’s played 90 minutes in all but 2 of his 9 starts.

In his last 2 seasons he’s scored 23 goals and 15 assists in the 90 minute equivalent of 24 games or so a season.  That’s a fairly decent record and his underlying stats aren’t a million miles away from what produced those returns so how he’s going now doesn’t seem totally unsustainable.  What he has managed to do so far this season in addition though is pick up bonus points.  He now has 11 compared to 22 in those 2 seasons combined.

The fixtures aren’t too bad after Arsenal and include current defensive problem childs in Fulham and Burnley.

Arsenal (A)
Fulham (H)
Watford (A)
Everton (H)
Burnley (A)
Bournemouth (A)

Martial

There’s no doubting that when Martial was on the pitch last season his returns and his underlying stats were some of the best of any midfielder.

This season in his first 2 starts he did absolutely nothing but everything has now changed with 4 goals and an assist in his last 3 games.  2 of those games have seen excellent underlying stats as well.

Last season showed he can be a productive returner backed up by good underlying stats and hopefully the last couple of games show he can continue that.

His favoured position of LW though does have competition from Sanchez and to some extent Rashford.

However like Barkley, but to a lesser extent, £7.4 million is a cheap price for a player with his talent and last years performances in the front 3 of what should be a top 4 challenging team.

Bournemouth (A)
Man City (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Southampton (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (H)

The Sinking Ships

These are the 5 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek.



fantasy premier league GW11 tips

Hazard

Hazard scored 7 goals and 3 assists in only 7 starts plus 2 as sub.  His PP90 is 10.1 and only once of his 7 starts has he not played 90 minutes.  He’s also got a remarkable 13 bonus points returning 3 points in 4 out of the 5 games he’s returned.  He’s got penalty duties and has been told  to concentrate on making things happen at the attacking end of the pitch rather than defending.  Virtually every active manager (Jordan Sadler apart!) has him.  9 of the 10 top FPL managers I follow and 92% of the top 10k.

Yes he didn’t start in GW10.  However this is a Zola quote

“He is certainly much better. We are not sure about today, but tomorrow he could join us in training. He may not be involved tomorrow but he should be okay for the weekend”

So I’m not sure why anyone is selling him let alone 117k FPL managers

Crystal Palace (H)
Everton (H)
Spurs (A)
Fulham (H)
Wolves (A)
Man City (H)

Mitrovic

Mitrovic has got 1 assist in his last 4 games after 5 goals and 1 assist in his first 6 games.  What’s more his underlying stats and shot volumes have fallen dramatically.  We are now looking at underlying stats that are more consistent with his Newcastle days rather than consistent with Sergio Aguero which is what it was at one stage.

However you must have very little to do or something very urgent to do to replace him before a game against Huddersfield.  Not only have Huddersfield been poor defensively but this is a game both sides will be desperate to win given they are both currently in the bottom 3.  Anything could happen in this match.

Huddersfield (A)
Liverpool (A)
Southampton (H)
Chelsea (A)
Leicester (H)
Man Utd (A)

Lucas Moura

Lucas Moura has got it going wrong on a number of levels.  Firstly he hasn’t returned in 6 games.  Most FPL managers wouldn’t need to hear anything else after that statement.  Of the last 7 games 5 of them have seen non existent underlying stats.

Also with the return to fitness of Eriksen and Alli plus the real gametime threat now of Lamela his future gametime must be in question.  Even if he starts it’s hard to see him not be a sub magnet given the number of AMs at the club.

Wolves (A)
Crystal Palace (A)
Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (A)
Southampton (H)
Leicester (A)

Arnautovic

Arnautovic missed the GW10 match through illness.  No update so far that I’m aware of.  I’d be surprised if he starts in the EFL Cup tonight, ill or not to be honest.

4 goals and an assist in 8 starts is a good start and his underlying stats are ok if not fantastic but consistent with last season.  It would be handy to know if he has taken pens off Noble as an additional bonus.  His ability to get bonus with returns is ok with him having 6 in total with some sort of bonus in 3 of his 4 returning games.

The major factor in his attraction though is the fixtures.  Apart from Man City they are excellent for sometime.

However even in the short term I’m not sure why you would sell before a home game to defensive disaster Burnley until you know more about whether he’s likely to play.

Burnley (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Man City (H)
Newcastle (A)
Cardiff (H)
Crystal Palace (H)

Maddison

Maddison is an interesting case.  Whenever I’ve seen him on TV I think he looks excellent often occupying central positions and dictating play.  He also has good set piece representation and if Vardy’s benching is more than just about fitness then he would get penalties.

He certainly started the season well with 3 goals and 2 assists in his first 7.  However it’s now 3 games with no returns and you start thinking that 1 goal previous was a penalty where he’s 2nd in line, and another was a direct free kick where the most scored by 1 player last season was 2.  His goal threat underlying stats are poor even though he does shoot alot but his assist based underlying stats and key pass volumes are good even in the last 3 games.

So it really depends on whether you like assist based players in your team.  Certainly Fraser has been successful with that being the major emphasis of his game.  At £7m he’s not as cheap as Fraser though.

One thing for sure though is the fixtures are good and especially so with Cardiff and Burnley next.

Cardiff (A)
Burnley (H)
Brighton (A)
Watford (H)
Fulham (A)
Spurs (H)

Remember to help Sergio out with comments and voting in the poll in his Sergio’s wildcard options article.

Also see our fixture ease article for players with good fixtures coming up and my early thoughts on the FFGeek team article

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8 thoughts on “fantasy premier league GW11 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships”

  1. literally got nothing to do this week but got 2 fts.

    would quite like to get Martial in but im not dropping Richarlison Salah or Hazard.

    Want to get rid of mitro but can’t against Huddersfield.

    I have Patricio and Button in goal so probably just swap Patricio for someone this week, maybe fabianski (I already have Doherty).

  2. thanks FFGeek.

    Some feedback on this Bandwagons Article though – to be honest I think it comes out too late every week.

    Those players you’ve mentioned, a lot have already gone up or down in price by the time this article comes out. Correct me if I am wrong but I use this article/see the point of this article as being to help people make transfers before price changes.

    If the price has already changed it’s a bit pointless to be honest. I think this article should be prioritised more. It certainly shouldn’t be Wednesday before it comes out.

    • I do obviously take the point that a number of sales or purchases have to made in order for you to assemble the article.

      But surely this can and should be done before the price changes occur.

      cheers,
      Rob

      • Hi Rob

        Thanks for the comments. The point of the article from my point of view is to comment on the most popular transfers in and out during the week. The reason being is that they will often be the transfers people are thinking of. For it to be representative of the most popular transfers for the week then it makes sense for it to come out some time after the Sunday and Monday games for the article not to be driven mainly by the effects that the Saturday games have on transfers.

        Having said that I may slightly contradict myself by saying I normally try and get the article out Monday or Tuesday. This week has been a bit more difficult timing wise for me for 1 reason or another.

        I’ve never tried to and don’t think I would ever try and put the article out before any price changes occur. I can see they are important to you but I’m not sure that this is the perspective of the article for others

        Hope that helps and happy to hear others feedback on the subject

        Cheers and good luck this week

  3. Once again I am baffled by some of these transfers given the upcoming fixtures. Much like the mass sale of Mane last week with a home game against leaky Cardiff pending, I have no idea why players are selling Arnie and Mitro this week given the fixtures. And I am utterly astounded by the sale of Hazard. Makes no sense!!

  4. Geek, i think the timing is fine. It shows a good trend and reasoning (good or bad) of potential transfers. I am sure those who transfer on price already know about the fpl statistics site. Thanks for your great work!

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