fantasy premier league GW12 captain choice and transfer poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league GW12 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice. We also add on the transfer in and out poll results

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW12 CAPTAIN CHOICE AND TRANSFER POLL RESULTS

If the article’s a bit long and stat heavy there’s a summary at the end

FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW12:

The bookies see 4 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW12 captain choice will come from one of those teams although as you’ll see this is an unusual week.

Man Utd £1.28 – Lukaku

Man City £1.33 – Aguero, Jesus, Sane, Sterling, D Silva, De Bruyne

Liverpool £1.40 Salah, Firmino,

Chelsea £1.57 – Morata, Hazard

If you want to see detailed stats on these players you can see it in our player ranking articles for midfielders and forwards

THE BOOKIES ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Thursday evening and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.57 – Jesus, Aguero

£1.73– Lukaku

£1.85 – Kane

£2.00 –  Salah, Firmino, Morata

£2.25 – Lacazette

£2.40 – Sanchez, Wilson, Defoe, King

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.

It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain

Some stats

I’m going to focus on 2 players Lukaku and Kane plus short notes on Salah and Morata.  I’d like to do more but it’s not really practical.  Expected goal data is from the brilliant site understat

Lukaku

FPL points

Expected goals data

The Newcastle away defence

The Newcastle defence is 6th equal in the PL for goals conceded away and 4th for xG conceded.

Kane

FPL points

Expected goals data

The Arsenal home defence

The Arsenal defence is 6th for home xGA and 4th equal for goals conceded at home

SALAH

I had a quick look at Salah who’s scored or assisted in every home games he’s started except the Man Utd game.  Southampton have only conceded 3 games away from home which is tied for 1st in the PL.  However they have had a very easy run and conceded 2 at Stoke even with Van Dijk in the team.  They will pack the defence and we’ve yet to see how they successful they are as yet away from home against  a top 4 challenging team.  Have Liverpool buried that worry with the 3-0 win against Huddersfield.

His xG has ben mixed at home.  Good against Arsenal and Huddersfield.  Poor against Burnley and Man Utd

Morata

Morata has returned a goal or assist in 3 of  4 of his away games.  Blanking against Spurs.  He’s also produced excellent xG in all of those games.  Even the Spurs game his goal threat was good.

WBA haven’t been the defensive stalwarts at home you’d think.  They’re 12th at home for xG conceded and 8th equal for goals conceded.  However any team who’s faced Man City tend to have their stats distorted negatively as have WBA in that 3-2 loss.  However it’s worth also noting that they really got the run around from Watford. Brunt, Evans and McAuley all had difficult International games for N Ireland

SUMMARY  

So the bookies have the Manchester City strikers as favourites at Leicester and it’s hard to argue with that. It’s just a case of who will start given a single striker system seems likely.  With Aguero’s dizziness you may think it would be Jesus.  However this arguably is the harder of the weeks fixtures with Feyenoord in the UCL and Huddersfield in GW13.  That would make you think Aguero would play.  So who knows?

Then Lukaku is slightly ahead of Kane.  A striker with such short odds against another top 4 challenging side away from home is quite unusual and testament to the belief they and the public presumably have in him. Morata and Salah are back from that.

The polls are relatively tight with Lukaku a slight leader from Kane.  Salah does feature reasonably prominently though

The stats in my view probably slightly favour Kane over Lukaku.  His away record in the last 3 is quite incredible.  Arsenal are without Mustafi and although they have a very good home record they’ve only played Leicester who you would talk about as a goal threat.  That was a defensive disaster.

Lukaku has been very good at home against the weaker sides.  Newcastle have a good away record but have probably played some of the weaker attacking sides in the league.  Lascelles probably not fit and even Elliot a doubt due to a bereavement can’t help the situation.

You can make good stat cases for Salah and Morata.  Both have been consistent.  Salah faces an unproven away defence which conceded 2 v Stoke and Morata against a not so sure WBA defence

The FFGeek choice

I expect based on a previous gameweek that if Lukaku scores big  and your alternate doesn’t then you will pay the ranking price.  That may govern my choice.  The polls aren’t as convincing to just go with them.

Unfortunately I can make a case for all 4 of the players and really haven’t decided as yet.  Hopefully I will have by the time I do the team article later today.  It’s another of those decisions which you just have to pick 1 as there is no clear logical winner.  These decisions tend to govern your season.

THE TRANSFER IN AND OUT POLLS

Here’s a link to the original article if you want to see the polls in full

So after a good run None of these features highly again.  Inexplicably I left out Charlie Daniels which can’t have helped on the transfers in.

No real surprises on the transfers in.  Jones I suspect was votes before the injury news.

A little disturbing that 4 of the 6 players you can see in the transfer out are in my team although Jesus and Cedric strong possibilities to leave.

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