fantasy premier league GW15 captain choice

captain choice, Fantasy Premier League

Here’s our fantasy premier league GW15 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW15 CAPTAIN CHOICE

If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end.  This article was written before a number of the Friday press conferences

FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW15. Remember it’s a normal gameweek deadline of  Saturday 2 December 11.30 UK time

 fantasy premier league GW15 captain choice

The bookies see 3 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW15 captain choice will come from one of those teams.

Man City £1.11 – Aguero, Jesus, Sane, Sterling, Silva and De Bruyne. Aguero and Sterling probably are the main gametime risks this week.  However who really knows?

Chelsea £1.25 – Morata, Hazard

Liverpool £1.50 – Salah, Mane, Coutinho and Firmino




THE BOOKIES ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Friday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.36 – Aguero

£1.40 – Jesus

£1.57 – Morata

£1.73 – Kane

£1.80 – Sane, Sterling

£2.00 – Salah and Vardy

£2.10 –  Pedro

£2.20 – Firmino

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.

It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll.  Unfortunately it’s only been up around 24 hours so the number of votes is low

fantasy premier league GW15 captain choice

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain

 fantasy premier league GW15 captain choice

WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?

 UPDATED: Who the FFGeek contributors have captained.  Blanks are where I haven’t had a team this week.

ContributorCapt Pick
Rob ReidKane
Alex BallKane
FPL WordKane
MikaelKane
CesspoolKane
JoeHazard
DarenKane
Shayne
Keith
NeilMorata
GeekKane

 

You can see their teams in the contributor teams articles part 1 and part 2

Thoughts on Hazard, Salah, Kane and Morata

HAZARD

Hazard having come off the bench in GW14 for 9 minutes seems certain to start.  I imagine his position will either be as a pair with Morata or in a 3 with Morata and Pedro/Willian or as the striker with Pedro and Willian either side of him in a front 3 with Morata rested

Hazard has started 7 games and returned a goal or assist in 4 of those games and in 4 of the last 5 starts

Overall his underlying stats are pretty ordinary to say the least but his slow start has hampered him. In the 3 games before the Liverpool game (when both Hazard and Morata were unproductive) Hazard’s underlying stats were excellent.  Hazard has also regularly over performed his underlying stats.

The only comparable home game that he’s started is the game against Watford where he got an assist but produced dreadful underlying stats

He has the big advantage of penalties.

Hazard with his relatively low ownership is probably the sword captain option

The Newcastle defence away from home ranks 11th equal for goals conceded with 11 in 7 games but a surprising 4th in xG conceded which suggests they have been unlucky

However their schedule away from home has probably seen the worst attacking teams in the league with Huddersfield, Swansea, Brighton, Southampton, Burnley and WBA  the opponents.  The 1 comparable away game they have played was against Man Utd where they lost 4-1 with a 2.55 xG conceded.

Newcastle also have Lascelles injured which isn’t helpful for their defence

Salah

Salah came off the bench in GW14 for 23 minutes and seems certain to start.   I’m assuming he will take his normal position on the right of a front 3

 He’s started 12 games plus 2 as sub and scored 12 goals and 3 assists including 7 goals in his last 4 games. He’s returned a goal or assist in 10 of those 14 games.  His underlying stats are fantastic and he’s been a goal threat in every game except for 2.

 I would say there are 4 comparable away games that’ he played.  Leicester away where he scored.  Newcastle away where he blanked.  West Ham and Stoke away where he scored twice in both games.

As of the start of the gameweek according to the excellent site FPL discovery Salah was owned by 90% of the top 10k.  This can be some sort of proxy for active FPL managers.  This could mean a ranking backlash should Salah get a big haul and makes him the closest thing to a shield option for this gameweek.

 The Brighton home defence is 8th equal for goals conceded with 7 goals against.  In xG conceded they are 11th suggesting they have been a little fortunate.

Their home games have seen a fairly easy run of WBA, Newcastle, Everton, Southampton, Stoke and C Palace.  The only comparable game was the home game to Man City where they lost 2-0 with an xG of 2.26.

They appear to be injury free in defence.

 MORATA

 With Hazard being benched in GW14 and Conte talking rotation coupled with Morata having played most games to me, makes Morata a rotation risk.  I therefore wont be looking at him closely.

KANE

I would be surprised if Kane doesn’t start given Spurs issues at the moment.  This is also a derby match of sorts.

Kane home and away has been a different player. Away from home he’s got 2 FPL 1 pointers against Newcastle in GW1 and recently against Arsenal when he wasn’t fit. He’s got 13 FPL pointers away at Everton, West Ham and Huddersfield. His latest game away was GW14 at Leicester where he scored and got 6 points.  In underlying stats terms  he has disappointed against Arsenal which you can excuse but he was also disappointing against Leicester in GW14 despite the goal.  His xG per 90 v Leicester was 1/3 of his away average of 0.75 per 90.  That’s not helpful.  Kane has pens.

 Watford have conceded more goals at home than any other team and the worst in terms of xG conceded.

To be fair they have played 4 of the top 6 and those results are revealing.  Liverpool 3-3, Man City 0-6, Arsenal 2-1 and Man Utd 2-4.  Now they have had alot of defensive injuries and at the moment Britos, Cathcart and Kaboul are either out or unlikely.  They do seem to have a plethora of CBs though.

SUMMARY




Unsurprisingly the bookies favour the Man City pair but Morata features strongly. Who knows which will play.  Kane is lower than expected and Salah quite low too.

 The Polls are very even with only Morata a little behind

 Hazard has seems a safe starter, has recent form and good opposition.  His underlying stats are questionable but have shown recent improvement and he has generally outperformed them.  He also has pens. Hazard with relatively low ownership is the sword option

Salah has been the player of the season and his form, consistency and underlying stats are fantastic.  He plays a stubborn opponent on their own ground as the negative who kept City to 2 goals.  Salah is probably as close as there is to  shield option in this gameweek.

Morata seems a start risk to me so I have ruled him out

Kane has been in great form away from home, is proven quality, has pens and his underlying stats are good.  Watford are a defensive disaster at home.  His negatives are Spurs form and his last 2 away performances have been poor despite the goal against Leicester.

THE FFGEEK CHOICE

 At the risk of sounding like a broken record when the polls aren’t clear cut, I’m just not sure.  I can make a case or a negative against either of the 3 options.  I wont be considering Morata unless Conte positively says he will start

I’ll update you in the FFGeek team article later today.  Good luck whoever you choose.

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