fantasy premier league GW23 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our fantasy premier league GW23 tips article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the most transferred in players (bandwagons) and most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league GW23 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships

Stats definition:

PP90: The FPL points per 90 minutes played for 18/19.

Av mins last 4: The average minutes played in the last 4 games. Coming on as sub or not being played for non injury related matters will count.

Consistency: the number of times a goal or assist has been returned in a match as a proportion of the total starts.

ATGS/CS* odds GW23: Anytime goal scorer odds or clean sheet odds* for defenders for GW23.

Fixture ease: The fixture ranking by difficulty for GW23-28 and GW23-25. See our fixture ease article

Prices as of Monday 14 January.  This was written prior to the Monday night Man City v Wolves match.

The Bandwagons

These are the 5 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek.



fantasy premier league GW23 tips

Note xG includes pens for Pogba and Salah but not Jimenez

Rashford

Most transferred in player for the 2nd consecutive week.  4 goals and 2 assists in the 5 games under Solskajer as he appears to nail down the striker position.  What’s more he’s increased his shot average from under 3 in the games before to over 4 per game.  That’s an elite level of shots.  Aguero 4.6 per 90 and Kane at the moment less at 3.6.  Rashford’s xG/xA in those games is also at an elite level of 0.66 and 0.25.  The opposition apart from Spurs has to be taken into account but still for £7.4m you’re getting someone performing at an incredible level in a team also performing.

Brighton (H)
Burnley (H)
Leicester (A)
Fulham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Crystal Palace (A)

Pogba

Also was in the most transferred in top 5 last week.  I could say similar stuff as above but I’ll leave it with 4 goals and 5 assists in his 5 games after Mourinho left.  Also played 3 of those 5 games as a CAM.  Should have penalties unless Solskajer has reassigned them for some reason.

Brighton (H)
Burnley (H)
Leicester (A)
Fulham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Crystal Palace (A)

Salah

7 goals and 3 assists in his last 7 says it all.  Has also played all of those games apart from City away as a CF.  3 of those have been penalties which has been made alot of.  However even stripping those out you still have a pretty healthy xG average of 0.49 and xA average of 0.36 in those 7 games which included Man City, Man Utd,  Wolves and Arsenal as fixtures.  4 of the top 7.  The only worrying this is in those 7 games his non penalty shot count was down to 2.3 per game against a season average of 3.5.  However it’s a brave man that goes without him on current returns.

Crystal Palace (H)
Leicester (H)
West Ham (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Man Utd (A)
Watford (H)

Nasri

A pretty sparkling performance as a CAM with an assist in the 1-0 over Arsenal.  1 shot and 3 key passes with an assist as a result is nothing to be sniffed at but he only lasted 70 minutes and it may take a few games for him to make 90 minutes.  There’s no doubting his ability.  In 13/14 he had 7 goals and 11 assists at a goal or assist every 138 minutes and a points per 90 of 5.6.  However that was 13/14 and that was with Manchester City.

At £5.5m there’s not much to lose but potentially on limited minutes, with only 1 game as a reference point and mixed fixtures it is a gamble.  Albeit not a very costly one.

Bournemouth (A)
Wolves (A)
Liverpool (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Fulham (H)
Man City (A)

Jimenez

Been a pretty consistent returner.  You certainly don’t expect a £6m odd FPL attacking player to be returning a goal or assist in over 50% of his matches.  His returns for the price are ok, he plays 90 minutes and gets a decent allocation of bonus points.  While his shot volumes are good his xG/xA is only ok and his history suggests he will undershoot it.  Fixtures are good

Leicester (H)
West Ham (H)
Everton (A)
Newcastle (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Huddersfield (A)

The Sinking Ships

These are the 5 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek.



fantasy premier league GW23 tips

Note xG includes penalties for Aubameyang and Hazard but not Wilson

Son HM

Off to the Asian games and could miss up to 3 gameweeks.

Hard to know what Poch will do with his 4-3-1-2 system where Son played as Harry Kane’s partner.  I guess Moura could do it if he’s fit  or even Alli if he sticks to the same system.   However it’s only 3 games and it’s hard to imagine Son won’t just slot back.

Fulham (A)
Watford (H)
Newcastle (H)
Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
Chelsea (A)

Aubameyang

A blank and then a fixture against Chelsea is enough to send FPL managers selling despite what is a pretty ok record overall plus very good underlying stats.  Not to mention penalty duties and a very good run of fixtures post Chelsea (Man City apart)

Why Emery doesn’t just play him as a CF is beyond me?  When you’ve got a guy with an ability to find shooting positions in the 6 yard box like he can why do you play him as a AMR?

Chelsea (H)
Cardiff (H)
Man City (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Southampton (H)
Bournemouth (H)

Wilson

Missed GW22 with injury.  This is what Howe said:

“Callum’s hamstring strain isn’t serious but enough to keep him out of this game.”

Now Bournemouths fixtures aren’t great but a home fixture v West Ham doesn’t scream sell if he does turn out to be fit.   That’s especially when Chelsea next seems a far better option.  That’s also the case as it gives you another week to see if the Chelsea rumours of interest come to anything.

However if you’re selling for Rashford then it’s a bit more understandable.

West Ham (H)
Chelsea (H)
Cardiff (A)
Liverpool (A)
Wolves (H)
Arsenal (A)

Alonso

You may have seen my tweet on the weekend about Alonso.  If not, here is what it said:

Alonso v Newcastle no shots 1 key pass 0.09 xA.

Last 10 games TOTAL xG 0.64 xA 0.29. 10 shots and 5 key passes

That’s a 0.06 and 0.03 per game xG and xA roughly.  If you see that the last 2 seasons his xG and xA were 0.14 and 0.11 then we’ve got someone who in the last 10 games is performing at under half his expected level.  There’s also the very real fact that there’s been no attacking returns for 11 games.  All the while David Luiz, with a goal and 2 assists in that time plus 12 bonus points to 4 has been leaving him in the shade. That means you’ve got some very frustrated owners who are seeing the price difference reduce from £1.5m at the start of the season to only £0.8m now.  However, like a plummeting share price is their a point when you think he’s worth the punt?

Certainly the fixtures are a bit mixed on which to take that gamble

Arsenal (A)
Bournemouth (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Man City (A)
Brighton (H)
Spurs (H)

Hazard

You don’t cost £11m and get 1 assist in the last 3 games and expect to not be on the transfer out list and here he is.

However the case for him is that in his last 10 starts against non top 6 sides he’s only been disappointing against 3 sides.  Unfortunately 2 of those 3 performances were in the last 3 games and the Newcastle game, despite a lucky assist,  it was a 1 shot, 1 key pass performance with an xG and xA of 0.04 each.

Over the season there’s nothing wrong with Hazards returns, his minutes played, his consistency of returns, his underlying stats including his shooting volumes and the fact that he has pens. It’s just the last 3 games have really left a pretty sour taste.

A game against Arsenal may not be a must sell fixture but he’ll have to show something if it’s not going to be a mass of sales before City away.

Arsenal (A)
Bournemouth (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Man City (A)
Brighton (H)
Spurs (H)

If you want to see how these players performed in GW22 see our underlying stats article for that gameweek.  Also there’s the players with the best fixtures upcoming in our fixture ease article

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3 thoughts on “fantasy premier league GW23 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships”

  1. Hello Geek 🙂
    I love reading your bandwagon and sinking ship articles. Your articles have helped me with many of my transfer decisions so far but I guess this is first time actually leaving a comment:)

    If Kane is out for more than two gameweeks, I’m thinking below transfer options. Any advice?
    1) Kane + Snod -> Rashford + Sane (-4)
    2) Kane + Anderson -> Rashford + Sterling (-4)
    3) Kane -> Rashford (no hit)

    My current team:
    GK: Fab (Hamer)
    DEF: Robertson, TAA, Doherty, Bennet, Peltier
    MID: Salah, Pogba, Anderson, Rich, Snodgrass,
    FW: Kane, Auba, Jimenez

  2. In case taking a hit is okay for you, then imho, option one with Rashford and Sane coupled with their fascinatingly fantabulous fixtures looks like the most excitingly excessively enchanting endeavour.

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