fantasy premier league GW26 captain choice

Here’s our fantasy premier league GW26 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice. We also show you the results of the transfer in and out poll

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW26 CAPTAIN CHOICE

If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end

FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW26:

The bookies see 4 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW26 captain choice will come from one of those teams.

Man City – £1.28 – Aguero, Sterling, De Bruyne

Man Utd – £1.17 – Lukaku, Sanchez

Chelsea £1.61 – Hazard

Arsenal £1.35 – Aubameyang

THE BOOKIES ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.40. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.67 – Aguero

£1.75– Lacazette, Aubameyang

£1.83 – Lukaku

£1.91 – Sanchez, Mkhitaryan

£1.95 – Martial

£2.00 – Sterling, Vardy, Giroud

£2.05 – Wilson, Salah, Kane, Hazard

£2.20 – Firmino

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.

It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

If you want to see the full GW26 captain poll use this link

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain

WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?

SOME THOUGHTS ON AGUERO AND SALAH

AGUERO

Here’s Aguero’s away games:

Aguero has started 7 away games. He’s got a goal or assist in 5 of the 7 and 4 of the 6 non top 6 sides. He’s got double figure point hauls in only 1 game.

I would say his underlying stats at away have been very good with him only not getting an acceptable level (0.5 NPxG for a striker) in the last  2 of the 7 away games.  His assist based numbers are exceptional for a striker

He will have penalty duties

 Aguero played the full 90 minutes in the week vs WBA on the Wednesday.  It’s hard to imagine him not starting against Burnley away given Jesus is still injured although Pep always has the ability to spring surprises

The Burnley home defence

At home Burnley are ranked 3rd equal in goals conceded with 9.  In expected goals at home they are 11th.  So they are either lucky or are able to buck the system

There have been 4 comparable games home against top 6 sides for Burnley

Rd 13 Arsenal 0-1 (xGA 1.75 and 17 shots 10 in the box)

Rd 19 Spurs 0-3 (xGA 3.31 and 18 shots 13 in the box)

Rd 22 Liverpool 1-2 (xGA 1.63 and 18 shots 9 in the box)

Rd 24 Man Utd 0-1 (xGA 0.86 and 12 shots 7 in the box)

 Tarkowski is likely to be out and Ward is doubtful.  However Long has deputised well.  Burnley also played on Wednesday at Newcastle

The reverse fixture was 3-0 to Man City.

SALAH

Here’s Salah’s home games:

Salah has started 11 home games and returned a goal or assist in 9 of those games.   Incredibly there have been 6 double figure FPL point hauls.

 His goal threat underlying stats have been exceptional and in only the Burnley and Man Utd games were they less than acceptable (0.3 for NPxG or 0.3 xA for a mid)

Salah could have pens despite not being the designated taker as he took the penalty against Huddersfield midweek.

 Liverpool played on Tuesday so will have 1 more day rest over City.

The Spurs away defence

Away Spurs are ranked 3rd equal in goals conceded conceding 13. In expected goals conceded away they are 3rd

Spurs have played 3 comparable sides away this season:

Rd 10 Man Utd 0-1 (xGA 0.94 and 11 shots 9 in the box)

Rd 12 Arsenal 0-2 (xGA 2.24 and 14 shots 8 in the box

Rd 13 Man City 1-4  (xGA 4.15 and 20 shots 16 in the box)

 Surprisingly poor.  Spurs defence is without key defender Alderweireld which was the case v Arsenal and Man City.

It’s worth noting that the reverse fixture was  4-1 to Spurs

SUMMARY

The bookies favour Aguero at £1.67 with the Arsenal pair at £1.75, a host of Man Utd players at around £1.91 and Salah back at £2.05

The Polls favour  Aguero considerably with Salah, Kane and Sanchez far behind.

Aguero will have pens.  Salah could have pens.

Salah interestingly has the edge of Aguero on stats and surpsrisingly replicates these for top 6 sides

The Burnley defence has been ok at home against the top 6 sides with only Spurs giving them a bit of a pasting.  Spurs have been surprisingly poor against the top 6 sides and the absence of Alderweireld is obviously a negative

THE FFGEEK CHOICE

So I’m sticking with Aguero although I was quite surprised at the compelling case that Salah makes

THE TRANSFER IN POLL

TRANSFER OUT POLL

No real surprises apart from the lack of Man Utd players in.

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